7.20.2007

THE NUMBERS


Markets are at/near the lows of the day but, FWIW, markets that are weak all day tend to close at/near their lows. With that said I dipped and bought some YM futures for a hopeful green flip into next week.


The VXO is giving off a buy signal as it is up over 15% and trades above 110% of its 10 day SMA. VIX, not there yet at about 8% above its 10 day SMA.


Some interesting 2 day RSI numbers:


SPX 18


DJIA 23


NDX 31


GS 1


LEH 2


MER 4


MS 4


PEP 2


MGM 1


DJ 0


OIH 90


SLB 98


HD 2


KSS 1


GOOG 2


MORNING MARKETS


Markets trade lower on the heels of some earnings/guidance misses from some high profile companies including GOOG MSFT and CAT. The DJIA is -110, Naz -26 and SPX -10.


Weakness is across the board as the only winning sectors can be found in metals, oil service (SLB), airlines and drugs while homies, gaming, brokers, small caps, trannies and internets lag.


Winning stocks include ISRG SNDK LRCX APOL AAPL SLB COF WMB HAL TBSI ICE C SLG HOC BBBY.


Losers include CNH BIDU SIMO TEX SYNL CMCO CAE CAT GOOG AA LEH GS MS MSFT ETR ADSK ERIC XLNL GILD LOGI JOYG.


Market internals are very weak with 1,400 net losers on the NYSE and NAZ.


The NDX shows 2/1 losers to gainers while the OEX is far worse at 4/1.


VIX higher by 5% and VXO by 8%; both trading above their 10 day SMA's but not at buy signals yet.


OIH at an all time high on the heels of SLB numbers and may be time to take some off or sell some August calls.


The agriculture group getting sold this AM on the CAT news and it may be time to dip for AG CNH DE MTW and/or POT.


Overall, my guess is we are at a buy here as Monday morning will probably bring some M and A activity which will likely send markets higher next week.


7.19.2007

CLOSING EUPHORIA


Markets closed the day higher with the DJIA finally sticking above the "all unimportant" DJIA 14K level.


After hours, not so joyful as GOOG slides about $40 to the $510 level while MSFT also loses some of its luster in the after hours.


Best acting sectors during the day included oil service, tech, utilities, metals, defense and semis while brokers, banks, internets and homies lagged.


Winners included JNPR ISRG BRCM CTXS LOGI IBM EXC HPQ AES SLB BDK DRYS FTK TBSI AVT FSTR and SPAN.


Losers- NVEC WNR FCSX BIDU ESI HOC MICC SIMO BAX AA MS GS ALL GM LEH CTAS QCOM XLNX EBAY and ALTR.


Market internal were green all day as the NYSE closed with 830 more winners than losers while the NAZ closed with 590 more up than down.


The OEX/NDX both with 65 up and 35 down.


Love the Lee Raymond interview on CNBC; during his last few years at XOM he reiterated almost daily how the price of crude should be in the $28 area and XOM sees no demand /supply imbalance. Pay close attention.





THE SLIME


The action in the banks/brokers is just awful as the issues of sub prime slime refuses to go away with Big Ben on the big screen.


GS down 1.7%, C down 1%, JPM down .8%, LEH down 2%, MS down 1.5% and MER down 1.25%.


Hard to have the broader indexes move higher when the financials act so poorly but so good.


Best performing index is again the NDX and Large cap growth;


Biotech all green with the exception of DNA as GILD seems to be breaking through;


Defense excelling again with TXT and GD acting well;


Gaming also good with LVS/WYNN starting to play catch up after having lousy first halfs;


Media all red with the exception of DTV as DJ sinks just about every day;


Metals a bright green with GG GBN BP EWA all acting well;


Oil service having a good day but the refiners all red with VLO TSO HOC FTO all losing their momentum;


Retail a mixed bag with CWTR DECK LTD PVH TGT UA WMT good and COST KSS WFMI not so good;


Tech another mixed bag with AAPL AKAM BRCM CTSH HPQ IBM INFY KLAC MSFT RIMM very good and HHH SMH EBAY GOOG SNDK TXN YHOO not so good;


Trannies up again led by FDX and LUV;


Market internals still green but weakening a bit while the TRIN shows 1.05- more volume to losers- Up volume 377- Down volume 225 - still bullish;




THE OPEN


Markets open higher on the heels of some nice earnings reports and of course folks who like to buy dips.The DJIA is +85 and over the 14k mark again, NAZ +19 and SPX +7.5.


Strong sectors include tech, gaming, silvers, oil service, banks, defense, airlines, and reits while internets, drugs and biotechs lag again.


Winning stocks include IBM AAPL RIMM TXT HPQ EMC BDK JNPR CTXS SBUX ? BEAS INFY GRMN SYNL TBSI SPAN FTK AVT SRYS FSTR and HDNG.


Losers- NVEC WNR ESI FCSX MICC BAX ALL NSC LEH DD CTAS EBAY ESRX XRAY SEPR MRK and PFE.


Market internals are green with the NYSE at +1,200 and the NAZ at +875.


The NDX/OEX duo both have more than 70 winners out of 100.


Volatility indexes down about 4% and back to the low 15 level.


Twenty of the thirty DJIA components are green led by IBM HPQ and MO; the bull market apparently is back and it may be a good day to buy dips in the YM day if you want to day trade futures.



7.18.2007

THE CLOSE


There it was, the DJIA closed down 53, NAZ -13 and SPX -3 after a flurry of buying brought the markets way off their lows in the final 30 minutes of trading. As I type, the ES/NQ futures are a hair from the flat line as IBM satisfies the street.

Sectors green on the day included oils, metals, utilities, trannies, airlines and gaming while tech, brokers, semis, internets, financials and drugs lagged.

Winners included MSFT LVS WYNN CELG CP CNI XLE OIH CAM HOC VLO DVN CTXS PCAR UAUA NSC XOM CNH WNR BTJ ALY and NOV.

Losers included BIDU SIMO MR INTC PFE MER MS JPM LEH GS HIG YHOO LRCX SEPR MRVL SHLD GS LEH MER MS CME ICE and NMX.

Market internals closed with 900 more losers than winners on the NYSE and 775 more losers than winners on the NAZ.

Both the NDX/OEX internals came up from the lows to close with about 3 down to every 2 up.

Volatility indexes rallied a mere 2% at the close after being way up earlier in the day.

Bottom line, its a bull market and dips are for buying-

NOON SWOON



Markets continue to trade lower (DJIA -140, NAZ -37 and SPX -15), but some good news can be found in the oil patch where the OIH is trading up $1 and the XLE +$1. Besides the price of crude rising, DVN announced this AM that they were forming a "Marketing and Midstream MLP." This has caused the price of DVN to climb $3.25 or 4%+ and is also causing jig in APA APC CNQ XEC and XTO. In addition to MLP's these companies can/will probably deliver shareholder value as take out candidates.





Good news can also be found in the Treasury patch where the flight to quality has caused the 10 year Bond to dip back under the 5% level. May not be a boon to equities today but before long I suspect it will.





PFE dragging the drug group on crummy a crummy earnings report and lower than expected Lipitor scrips. No clue why they didn't warn investors earlier as no doubt many investors knew this was coming.





Brokers crushed on the BSC news inlcude GS MS MER LM LEH - other times in the past few months that they have been beaten down on this type of news has been the buying opportunity.





LVS and WYNN mentioned yesterday as under performing gamers holding pretty well in today's market down draft.





DJ down another $1 on last night's news that the board says sell to Rupert, so still lots of folks thinking the Bancrofts still won't be happy and won't sell and want to see the price of DJ back at $35.





Real estate also crushed with the ETF IYR down another 2%;





Techs- ugly on the INTC YHOO news with GOOG AAPL TXN NVDSA SMH HHH all getting clocked; my guess is they get bought again after today;





Market internals ugly at red 1,700 on the NYSE and red 1,600 on the NAZ;





The NDX is 4 losers to every winner while the OEX is better with 3 losers to every winner;





IBD 100 worse yet with about 10 up and 90 down;

More good news, the VIX/VXO getting over bought as they approach the 7/8 % above the 10 day SMA level.



So hopefully we won't give back the whole 280 DJIA points we gained last Thursday.

THE OPEN


Markets open lower on the heels of crummy news out of tech (INTC YHOO), drugs (PFE) and the brokers (BSC). The DJIA is -54, NAZ -23 and the SPX -7.


Strongest sectors include trannies (railroad buyouts), oils, retail (M buyout), utilities and metals while semis, internets, brokers, banks and real estate are under performing.


Biggest winners include PCAR NTAP CHRW SIAL UAUA NSC BNI ABT XOM CNH SPAN VCLK CAM and NOV.


Big losers- ALY NVEC MR ACH SNHY INTC MS PFE LEH JPM MER YHOO LRCX NVDA KLAC NMX ICE CME GS BSC and GOOG.


Market internals are weak with the NYSE at red 1,300 and the NAZ at red 1,200.


The NDX shows about 25 up and 75 down while the OEX is better at 37 up and 53 down.


Volatility indexes higher by about 5% and now trading about 5% above their respective 10 day SMA's.


Lots of folks wanted to buy the dip and its dipping although still not in over sold land as the SPX trades at a 2 day RSI near 25 and the DJIA near 45 as is the NDX.


My guess is dipping here will eventually turn out well as we probably get better news going forward which should take stocks to new highs (next week).






7.17.2007

CLOSING GENIUS


The DJIA closed the day 28 points below the 14k level and + 21 on the day while the NAZ was +15 and the SPX FLAT.


In addition, another typical CNBC day as they accentuate the positive and refuse to pay attention to any negatives that may be staring them squarely in the face. I guess its bad for ratings to mention stuff that isn't bullish.


Not less than 3 times did I hear how terrific MER earnings were and how that was helping the markets never mentioning that MER as well as GS and BSC were all red on the day.


Of course numerous times they mentioned the strength of the big caps without mentioning that the RUT/MID/NDX group were all out performing the OEX/SPX/DJIA trio.


And the internals, never mentioned how the NYSE internals started the day nicely green but worsened all day and finally closed with 500 more losers than winners; and down volume trouncing down up volume 581m to 825m. All the above lost by the CNBC genius journalists and producers. Details details details.


Strong sectors included semis, defense, internets, tech, banks and trannies while oils, reits, real estate, drugs, retail and biotech were all weak.


Big winners included LRCX KLAC AMAT SNDK NTAP AXP DD CSC WY DOW DRYS VCLK FCSX TBSI TLVT and NMX.


Big losers included MTOX WNR BTJ ALY FTK RF JNJ CPB MER COP GRMN VRSN SEPR JOYG and ATVI.


OEX internals 43 green 57 red - not so great for big caps.


NDX internals 67 green 33 red as tech was the strongest area of the markets.


Volatility indexes up a hair and trading near the 10 day SMA;


Of note:


Retail was terrible-


Metals were ugly-


Brokers mainly red-


Biotech drugs and consumers mainly red-


Oils red-


Markets are over bought trading at high 2 day RSI readings and the tag today of 14k may signal a short term top.









AFTERNOON LOOK


Markets are mixed this afternoon with the DJIA trading within 20 points of 14k and the SPX/Wilshire 5k both red. The SPX is lower on the heels of a sell off in the crude patch where recent winners VLO FTO TSO HOC are all trading poorly.


Strong sectors include semis, defense, banks, trannies, tech and small caps while oils, real estate, drugs and retail continue to lag.


Winners include RIMM AAPL CAM LVS INFY LRCX NVLS SNDK AMAT FLEX AXP CSC DD AVP DOW MSFT BNI FCSX DRYS VCLK CPLA OPY CPA and DECK.


Losers include GS CME ICE NYX MER BSC MA OIH XLE AMGN DNA CTSH MTOX BTJ WFR WNR FTK JNJ S RF VZ SLB GM SEPR VRSN ATVI JOYG LVLT and GRMN.


Market internals have flipped to flat on the NYSE/NAZ while the NDX still trades bullish with 3 up to 2 down while the OEX trades flat.


Volatility indexes a bit higher as the VIX/VXO trade at 15.5/15.75 - near the 10 day SMA.


The SPX turned down on the heels of a sell off in the crude patch as the index is loaded with oil and oil service stocks. Any wonder why the SPX tends to go up when crude oil rises?


Brokers also act punk on supposed good earnings news from MER. GS continues to disappoint as it can't seem to return to its pre earnings steady move higher.


The ag group also with problems today as AGU BG DE MON all red;


Biotech and drugs continue to act lousy with today's big losers being JNJ LLY MRK AMGN DNA and GILD;


Gaming has seen some of life of late as WYNN and LVS have suddenly turned up on the charts and may play catch up to MGM- LVS down 7% ytd while WYNN is up 4.5%- MGM +50%;


Metals having another lousy day and my purchase of BHP yesterday was a bit premature;


Real estate is funky yet again despite the recent steady rates; BAM and SLG may be buys here;


Tech is mostly green with SMH AMAT INTC KLAC RIMM SNDK acting best; curious to see if the semis sell of tomorrow on earnings from INTC;








OPENING PUSH


Markets open higher and DJIA 14k was tagged. Markets are being led by semis, airlines, banks, oil service, mid caps and utilities; lagging are retail drugs, biotechs and gaming.


Big winners include LRCX AMAT XLNX KLAC NVLS AXP DOW MSFT DD AVP DRYS FCSX OPY VCLK TSP and TBSI.


Big losers- MTOX BTJ WFR FTK WNR CLB NILE RF AMGN VZ WMT VRSN SEPR ERIC MICC ATVI and CTSH.


Market internals are positive but have come way off their best levels as the NYSE shows a net 480 to the green while the NAZ is 360 net green.


The NDX shows 55 winners to 45 losers while the OEX is much stronger at 65/35.


Up and down volume about equal and the TRIN over 1 after 4 consecutive days of closing readings under 1 (bearish).


Volatility indexes are flat and continue to hover just above the 15 levels.


Lots of excitement on bubblevision about DJIA 14K, but I see some crummy action as the internals drop off quickly and the brokers quickly turning red on the heels of great numbers from MER which has now turned red.


Retail continues to trade ugly with XRT CROX CVS GES SHLD TGT WMT PVH TIF all red;


Semis trade great yet again while other tech areas have difficulties including AAPL AKAM CTSH EBAY HPQ MOT and TXN. MSFT AMAT KLAC NVDA RIMM SNDK all act well.


Oils started the day strong but the refiners have all turned red led lower by VLO HOC TSO HOC and FTO;


Oil service is ok with CAM HAL RIS SLB all green;


Bottom line, the markets are over bought and I am anticipating a pull back here as euphoria seems to be everywhere.

7.16.2007

THE CLOSE


Markets finished mixed with the DJIA higher and all the other major indexes lower. RUT/MIDS/VALUE all ugly on the day as were oils, utilities, metals, retail and brokers while drugs, semis, airlines and trannies finished in the green.


Winners included DISCA UAUA S CHRW FAST GRMN AMAT VZ UTX KO GE NSC NILE SPAN FCSX ATHR TEX MTW ICE and CME.


Losers- AFSI TLVT SYNL BTJ SPEC FTK COP BHI WMB TGT IP TYC RYAAY JNPR VRSN LOW AKAM and SEPR.


Market internals were bearish all day with the NYSE closing with 1,160 more losers than winners while the NAZ closed with a net 970 red.


The NDX/OEX group closed with about 3 down to every 2 up.


Volatility indexes closed up a little with the VIX/VXO tandem trading in the mid 15 level and about par with the 10 day SMA's.


Other price action of note:


Biotech was very ugly along with the oils-


Retail was ugly while tech was mixed with out any out performers on my screens.


Retail lower after a some what bullish column in today's WSJ;


Some low 2 day RSI readings:


LTD 4


PVH 2


TSO 5


DJ 5



AFTERNOON TRADE


Markets continue to trade mixed and unless you have all your money invested in the DJIA, you are probably down on the day. Indexes trading in the red include SPX, small caps, mid caps, NDX, NAZ and the value line.

Strong sectors include gaming, trannies, real estate, financials and semis while oils, homies, retail and metals lag.

Winning stocks include DISCA CHRW GRMN S FAST VZ UTX KO NSC MMM BNI NILE SPAN FCS. MTW TEX GSOL and ICE.

Losers include AFSI TLVT SYNL BTJ SPEC FTK VIP SYNA COP BHI IP TGT FDX CVX AEP RYAAY VRSN GILD MNST and WFMI.

Market internals also in the red as the NYSE has 750 net losers while the NAZ has 650 net losers.

The NDX/OEX a bit better with flat internals.

Volatility indexes about flat and trading a bit higher than 15.

Keep in mind the market has had a big run of late and a sell off here would not be a shocker. The 2 day RSI on most indexes hovers between 80 and 90 with the DJIA at 95 and the QQQQ at 94 after tagging the 50 number this morning.

EARLY LOOK


Markets open mixed as the DJIA trades to a new all time high on the heels of the action in VZ UTX AA and CAT.


Strongest sectors include real estate, airlines, drugs and trannies while oils, biotechs, retail, internets and utilities lag.


Market internals favor the bear as the NYSE shows 730 net red and NAZ 650 net red;


The NDX is 3/2 losers to winners while the OEX is a hair better;


Volatility indexes - UNCHANGED;- And a question - why was the VIX/VXO in single digit range when the markets were lots lower?


Action of interest:


Mid and small caps are lagging;


Financials mixed;


Brokers trading pink while Xchanges are higher led by CME;


Biotech all red;


Defense/aero mainly red with the exception of TXT;


Drugs all green with the exception of MRK;


Gaming slightly green;


Machinery standing out green with CAT JOYG MTW TEX all up between 1 and 3 percent;


Metals generally lower with BHP down over 2%;


Oils all red led lower by TSO HP XTO PXD COP; Probably gonna dip in and add;


Real estate / reits - green on the heels of a "somewhat" bullish article in today's WSJ-


Retail continues to act crummy with the exception of GES M and UA;


Tech is mixed led by AAPL GOOG RIMM - red are SMH HHH AKAM AMZN CTSH SNDK and YHOO;



PRE MARKETS


Markets are set for a lower open as chatter develops about a BIG takeout of VZ by VOD. I say not likely but it would be interesting to see tw0 DJIA components, AA and VZ, get bought in the same year.


And writing about the DJIA, MORN has a new fair value estimate for the index, 14,204, a hair higher then the current 13,907. According to MORN, the best values on the DJIA are MMM (5 starts) JNJ (5 stars) PFE (5 stars) WMT (5 starts) PG (5 starts) AXP (4 starts) and KO (4 stars).


Gapping up - BRLC CTIC FTWR HEPH GEOY RDF ETN HOKU VG;


Gapping down- IMMR FRPT ONT FSLR TOT TS;