MIDDAY CHOP

Market has turned choppy flipping from green to red and back - with the best sectors- metals, semis, ags, homies and utils while banks, internets, gaming, shipping and junk lag.

NYSE- 380 net winners;

NAZ- 250 net losers;

NDX- 50 GREEN;

OEX- 60 GREEN;

VIX- lower by 6.5% at/near 47.7;

Banks/Financials trade ugly with JPM BAC WFC MS C GE all red -

Not expecting much for the rest of the day besides chop- as the long 3 day weekend looms and folks again may not want to hold equities in front of it.

Gold ripping higher at $840- as the $$$$ finally loses some luster.

THE OPEN

Markets are up as the over sold rally continues led by metals, semis and ags. The DJIA +95, NAZ +18 and SPX +11.

Weak sectors include junk, oils, financials, shipping and biotech.

NYSE- 1675 net winners;

NAZ- 735 net winners;

NDX -70 GREEN;

OEX- 80 GREEN;

VIX- down 9% at/near 46.3;

Up volume about 4X the down;

Not ready to add to positions this morning as this looks to be setting up as a nice fade- and the banks index - trading red again -led down by WFC BAC and JPM.

Ben Lichtenstein of tradersaudio.com with a pretty shocking forecast on Squawk this AM- he is looking for DJIA 12K sometime in March- I suspect we get a nice violent rally - but that seems a bit much IMVHO.

THE CLOSE

Markets closed in the green but off their best levels - as they did bounce from the DJIA 8K area. Also note how the SPX closed at the 50% retrace- half way between 945 and 741 at 844.

Strong sectors today included retail, metals, real estate, biotech and semis while banks, telecom and junk lagged.

NYSE- 250 net green;

NAZ- 415 net green;

OEX- 47 GREEN;

NDX- 78 GREEN;

VIX- higher by 3.3% at/near 51;

Today may be one of those reversal daysas we bounced big off the lows- from very oversold areas- gun to head I think we rally for awhile.

Also, check the stochastics- look to be an area to rally from and the RSI at/near 8- and the SMA 50 as a short term target.

SMART MONEY with some Battle tested funds;

SOCGEN says prepare for the worst;

BARRY on C;

And INTRADE- over 50/50 for the big one (53% chance of depression);

THE GREEN

Looks like DJIA 8K was a pretty pretty big number as the index has climbed about 180 points of the lows- and some interesting action among the various sectors:

RETAIL +3.8%

REITS +2.7%

SEMIS +1.9%

METALS +1.75%

HOME BUILDERS +1.7%

BANKS -5.2%

TELECOM -2.5%

SHIPPING -1.45%

MIDDAY LOOK

Markets continue lower - briefly breaching the 8K area on the DJIA - now bouncing but I doubt for long.

Strongest sectors- retail, gold, junk, internets, semis and tech while banks, shipping, telecom and real estate lag.

NYSE- 2300 net losers;

NAZ- 1400 net losers;

NDX- 25 GREEN;

OEX-5 GREEN;

VIX - soaring 11% at/near 55;

Down volume more than 12x the up;

Check out the action in WFC - the bank owned big by Warren- also down 15% today - so not such a great investment either- and his GE warrants - well GE almost back to the 2008 lows- just wondering how long before that one becomes a single digit.

A bounce from 8K on the DJIA is probably in the cards - and maybe even the end of margin selling also gives us a lift into the close- not expecting much - but a strong close would be nice- not expecting it though.

THE OPEN

Markets open down with the financial sector leading the way as usual. The DJIA -100, NAZ 12 and SPX 12.

Strongest sectors- retail, semis, biotech and gold while banks, telecom, shipping and real estate lag.

NYSE- 1600 net losers;

NAZ- 630 net losers;

NDX- 30 GREEN;

OEX- 15 GREEN;

VIX- higher by 5.5% at near 52;

Down volume about 8x the up;

Big losers- BAC C RF WFC MA GS XRX USB VZ AAPL LEAP ADSK YHOO WYNN STLD LAMR GOOG;

More big losers for the first 15 days of 2009:

GS -16%;

IYR -18%;

HUI -18%;

BAC -40%;

C -40%;

GE -16%;

Hard to believe that after such a disaster in 08 - the big banks are doing even worse for the first 15 days of 09-

No turn around yet in the equity indexes as they just go lower and lower - soon we get a violent rally - just don't know from where.

THE EARLY UGLY

Futures are lower yet again as the news at AAPL was not particularly good in the after hours as they confirmed more health problems for CEO Steve Jobs.

The news from the banks, ditto, as apparently more TARP money is needed at BAC as the Countrywide and MER acquisitions apparently not going so well. Anyone want to rethink the bonus denied to John Thain? And how about giving the government some control over the way BAC spends the new TARP money- could they do worse than Ken Lewis with his brilliant Countrywide and MER spending spree?

The numbers, which haven't done well on this market sell off- the VIX - about 16% above the SMA 10 - and the RSI (2) on the SPX near 3 and about 0 on the DJIA-

More news- GOOG cutting recruiters;

BESPOKE with the best and the worst of 2009;

And what are the ramifications for PWC- they didn't confirm cash? Send a letter to the bank confirming the balance in the bank as at a the end of the accounting period!!! A task usually done by the most junior of accountants.

FWIW- the indexes year to day- (14 days);

SPX -6.7%

DJIA -6.6%

NAZ -5.5%

NDX -4%

RUT -9.25%

MID -7%

BACK ON THURSDAY

CLOSING NUMBERS

A choppy day with the DJIA closing -25, NAZ +8 and the SPX +1.5.

Market internals closed near the flat line and the SPX closed at the 870 area which was recent support. Could be resistance now - as they flip- if we get above could again be support- tomorrow should be interesting.

WINNERS- FLEX CTSH INFY STLD VRTX AMLN CVS JPM C BHI S SLB OXY RF SGP;

LOSERS- BAC F GE AA GD ETR BNI WY DIS JAVA ADBE APOL MRVL VMED WYNN LAMR;

GE BAC the big losers and that can't be good going forward- Is BAC the next AIG/C as they go forward trying to integrate MER and Countrywide?

Bob Doll's sectors for 2009;

And Ed Rollins telling the truth;

THE CHOP

A snoozer of a day so far as markets chop between green and red with the small caps leading and large cap value lagging.

Strongest sectors- biotech, real estate, shipping energy and metals while utils, defense, telecom and tech lags.

NYSE- 150 net winners;

NAZ- 500 net winners;

NDX- 45 GREEN;

OEX- 45 GREEN;

VIX- down 2% at 44.8;

Up volume a bit better than up;

Gold and oil a bit higher while natty gas moving lower;

$$$$ higher while EURO lower;

The banks index is higher - but don't be fooled as BAC GS CME NYX all lower;

The RUT is leading but way off the highs of the day.

Looking for more choppy markets for the balance of the day and this fish isn't doing much at all- sitting with some longs and waiting.

Turnaround Tuesday - no laughing matter;

The TBT Goldmine;

And the long and the short from Dougie Kass:

"I remain of the view that the S&P 500 will be within a broad range of approximately 10% in either direction for the foreseeable future, with downside risk and upside opportunity roughly in balance.

With that expectation, investors should continue to err on the side of conservatism and should focus on the return of their capital as opposed to the return on their capital."

THE OPEN

Markets have flipped to green after negative numbers in the pre markets and ugly markets in Japan and Europe. DJIA +25, NAZ +14 and SPX +3.





Strong sectors- oils, semis, metals, biotech and shipping while telecom, banks, utils and financials lag.





NYSE- 400 net green after being 1,000 net red;


NAZ- 570 net green;


NDX- 80 GREEN;


OEX- 65 GREEN;





VIX- lower by 3% at 44.5;





Up volume 1.5X the down;

GOLD and OIL moving on up and bonds heading lower;

Markets feel like they want to move higher- with the exception of the financials where C BAC GS all act ugly and just wondering how far BAC may be from C - in light of there Countrywide and MER purchases.





Barry on the real Bush legacy;





And Dr. Brett on Inter market Relationships;

UGLY BANKS

Markets finished lower dragged down by the banks/brokers and energy as crude finished down about 8% near the $37.75 level. GS down about 7% while C was down 16% as most must have felt the MS deal is not that smart- (selling low).

The VIX shot up about 7% and now trades near the 46 area which is about 10% above its SMA 10.

The SPX has fallen about 80 points from the highs of just last week and a bounce back could be soon and violent- Turnaround Tuesday?

MIDDAY SNOOZE

Markets with lots of stops and starts - but basically no where since the morning trade-

NYSE- 1175 net losers;

NAZ- 775 net losers;

NDX- 15 GREEN;

OEX- 25 GREEN;

VIX- up 3.75% at/near 44.5;

Down volume 5X the up;

Gold still down over $30 while crude is coming back a bit only down $2.55;

Support on the SPX at/near 870 but looking for a move higher before the day is over-as oversold markets continue to flop around.

THE OPEN

Markets open lower with the DJIA -50, NAZ 10 and SPX 8.

Strong sectors include junk, utils and biotech while gaming, real estate, metals and energy lag.

NYSE- 1100 net losers;

NAZ- 425 net losers;

NDX- 25 GREEN;

OEX- 25 GREEN;

VIX- barely higher at 43.2;

Down volume 5x the up;

The $$$ is strong while gold has slipped under the $825 level- EURO 1.33;

Don' see much in the way of positives for this market except for the over sold conditions- as on five minute charts the markets keep making lower lows.

A bounce later in the day is probably in the cards - and I will probably add to longs shortly.

Tim Knight on advising and trading;

Market Sci - testing the rules;

24/7 on media brands;

THE CHARTS

Markets appear to be over sold on a short term basis and are also trading at the "uptrending" SMA 50. The VIX, not so accomidating as it hasn't rallied on the recent move lower by the major indexes.

RSI (2) numbers - over sold and in buy territory at 12 on SPX - and near there on most other major indexes.

Links:

Faber, Rogers and Boon with a common denominator;

VIX + MORE on the VOL drift;

Dr. Brett on what is/was working;

And when does THIS start hitting us;