CLOSING MARKETS

Markets end the day lower but well off their lows as the typical CNBC guest who generally predicts "big caps will outperform this year" finally has a winning day as the big guys close down about .6% while the small cap IWM closes red 1.75%. Congratulations. And how about the other dynamic prediction today from someone who said he sees colder weather toward the back end of January. Great stuff as I see warmer weather towards July and August.

Sector winners today included oils and natty gas while just about everything else besides GOOG and GS were losers.

Buy signlals appeared on the major indexes and I dipped in as I suspect the tech rotation returns on Monday. The VIX/VXO combo were both up but closed well off the highs. Buy signals there also as the 110% of 10 day SMA was hit.

Market internals came back a bit to close with about 3k more losers than winners.

NDX closed with 30 up / 70 down, OEX had 20 up/ 80 down while the SPX had about 110 up / 390 down.

TIME TO DIP?

Markets are way down this morning on the heels of higher rates, better than expected jobs, warnings, downgrades etc.

For anyone looking to buy the dip, now may be a good time as the 2 day RSI on the major indexes are now below 10 and the VXO is trading well above 110% of its 10 day SMA. The last few times the major indexes traded in the 2 day RSI buy area was an excellent time to buy, check Nov 1, Nov 27, Dec 22 etc., all nice trades.

There are no sector leaders as they are all red but the trade in the brokers is quite interesting as GS is trading near the flatline and the IAI broker ETF is down about 20 cents. Leading lower are metals, airlines, small caps, utes, tech, semis etc.

Checking the NDX, we have about 20 green and 80 red, OEX about 15 green and 85 red and on the SPX 80 green and 420 red. Ugly ugly but maybe a little shake out.

Overall market internals show red 2,000 on NYSE and red 1,600 on NAZ.

Also remember that markets that are weak all day tend to close at/near the lows although we may get some shortcovering into the end of the day say take your pick.

TURNABOUT

Markets have opened lower on the heels of a good jobs report, a downgrade on DELL and crummy news from MOT which is bringing down the tech complex. Rates are rising on the higher than expected jobs report and only 24 hours ago folks were giddy about tech and all things NAZ. Today, the MSH and the SOX are both down 1.5%.

Sector winners are biotech, oils and yikes GS has flipped to green as has MER after being down yesterday on a green day. Leading lower today are metals, semis, airlines, tech, utilities, small caps, internets, software and trannies.

Market internals are bearish with about 2,800 more losers than winners with a NYSE skew to the red in light of the RISING RATES.

The OEX shows about 25 up and 75 down; the SPX 120 up 380 down and the NDX has about 30 up and 70 down.

I have already dipped in for some SMH as I suspect they will come back for tech next week and the DELL/MOT news will be ancient history.

TECHNICALS SPX

The NAZ led the markets higher with a 30 point gain while the DJIA and SPX had much smaller gains of 6 and 2 points respectively. So has the terrain shifted to a tech dominated market? No clue but it would not surprise me as I have repeatedly showed the poor performance (red) last year for semis and internets.

The technicals on the SPX are showing a rangebound market as the index has been between 1,410 and 1,430 since early December and the ADX has sunk down to the 16 level, the lowest since mid August. The ADX measures the strength of the current trend with a high number indicating a strong trend and vice versa. Generally, a number of 30 indicates a strongly trending market.

The VIX continues to trade at pre teen levels but higher lately although not overbought or oversold as it trades a few percentage points above it 10 day SMA. So no signals there but watch for it to trend higher which probably means better dips and blips.

On the newswire, MOT warns and is downgraded, LEH downgrades XOM, JPM downgrades DELL, GS downgrades AET, PRU raises tgt for LMT and PRU downgrades CHK.

For the Cramer addicts, Jim's 3 favorite growth stocks are CSCO AAPL and NYX. He was bullish on GS ADBE DIVX SYK and CWTR and bearish on AMTD YHOO VLO RTK and MDRX.

ODD BALL

Another wierd day in the markets as the NAZ closed +30, DJIA +7 and the SPX +2 as an obvious rotation into tech is clear. The SMH was +1.9%, MSH+1.8%, GOOG +16 and AAPL +2.2%.

Tech is in and oils/metals are out with other strong sectors being biotech, (AMGN +4%. GENZ+5.5%), airlines, software, drugs, and trannies. The worst were oil service, oil, metals, brokers, homies, utilities and gaming.

GS was down $1.87, MER lower by $1.57 and MS up 29 cents INTC +4%, and HHH the internet ETF also up 3%. The question is how much higher can the markets go without the brokers? I guess tech can go higher but I doubt the overall SPX or DJIA can.

Market internals were flat on the NYSE and +375 on the NAZ. The SPX was also evenly split between winners and losers while the NDX had about 80 higher and 20 lower. Tech and Biotech good and most other sectors not so good.

THE NOON UPDATE

Markets have recovered much of the morning red withthe NAZ and tech leading the way. When was the last time INTC was up 85 cents in one morning? AMGN a pick for 2007, is up almost $2 after lagging most of 2006. Interesting how 2 big losers of 2006, HHH and SMH are trading very well today. Mean reversion?

The NDX is +22 with about 75 winners and 25 losers. The SPX has also improved to 230 green of the 500 but way behind the NDX as the NAZ over SPX trade starts.

Overall market internals are red 500 on the NYSE and red 175 on the NAZ.

Checking the sectors, semis, biotech, internets, drugs and tech leads while oils homnies, metal equities, brokers, small caps and financials lag.

GOOG KLAC and AAPL continue to trade while GS continues in the red and MS trades flat.

Interesting how quickly fear has left and the VIX/VXO combo has flipped to green.

Roger has Byron's predictions for 2007 and if is half right the owner of this blog will have a big year. OIL /GOLD. And Jimmy is looking for $120 calls on OIH and he suspects like me that private equity and M and A will help take the prices back up.

On a trading note, IMVHO, the DJIA Futures may get some jig this afternoon if they can crawl above the 12,550 pivot level which is about the flat line for the day.

OPENING GLANCE

Markets have opened lower with the DJIA -60, NAZ -7 and SPX -7.

Market internals are plenty bearish with the NYSE -1,400 and NAZ -1,050.

The DJIA has about 7 winners and 23 losers, the SPX with about 75 winners and the OEX with 15 out of 100 green. So none too bullish on the major indexes. The IWM small guys are again the weakest of the major indexes down over 1%.

On a sector basis, winners are biotech, drugs, GOLD and SILVER. Losers are everywhere with oils, gaming, brokers, small caps, airlines, metal equities, financials and homies.

The oil inventory is due out at 10:30 while the OIH is really getting oversold here down another
$1.5.

Interesting to see with all the carnage that AAPL and GOOG are green while MS GS and KLAC are all red. Also, the SMH trades green and the VXO is up about 8% and trading about 17% above its 10 day SMA.

MORNING STUDY

Yesterday's markets gave something for everyone as the major indexes were literally all over the map. The SPX had a range of 21+ points which is more than double the typical daily range while the QQQQ had a range of $1.54 which is probably 2 to 3 times the daily range. The DJIA was tame with only a 175 point range, but again something for everyone and losses no doubt for anyone who bought in the morning.

The OIH was crushed on the heels of oil prices breaking down to the $58 level and is now stretched big time from its all its SMA's. One that I track is the 13 and the OIH is now about $10 below its 13 SMA and the last time that happened was mid September at the $125 area which turned out to be a very good time to buy as the OIH ramped to over the $150 level. The 2 day RSI on the OIH is also down to 3 which was the reading back at the mid September lows.

For the DJIA YM futures traders, the Pivot on the YM is at 12,550 with support at 12,450 and resistance at 12,630. So get ready for another fun day as the volatility looks to be ramping.

CLOSING THOUGHTS

I was out all of the afternoon on some unexpected errands but I was not surprised to see the sellers take control of the markets and fill the morning gaps.

The Russell 2000 and the rapidly deteriorating internals gave the game away in the late morning. Market internals did manage to close in the green after dipping into the red in the afternoon trade.

I suspect tormorow's trading will be interesting as lots of traders/momentum buyers own shares at higher prices.

All the pivot points should be in play tomorrow as major indexes closed a bit above the unchanged levels.

The oils got crushed further as cold weather is no where on the radar. If the XLE/OIH open lower tomorrow a short trade may be at hand as the dippers will probably try a quick flip.

SPX closed with about 270 winners and 230 losers while the NDX had about 57 to 43 winners to losers. SIRI XMSR TLAB CHRW and ROST the big NDX winners while JOYG PTEN AKAM ADBE INTU BEAS and SNDK were the losers.

SPX winners were WMT WY HD MED and LTD while losers were COP GM BHI SLE SLB and XOM. An obvious common theme among the loser.

THE NOON UPDATE

Markets continue higher although with some warning signals that things may not end up as well as they began. The DJIA is +98, NAZ+33 and SPX +8. The IWM started out as the best major market index out of the gate but has since dipped and has been making lower lows as the DJIA has held up.

Market internals giving mixed signals as the NAZ has fallen off to +800 and NYSE to plus 960. The internals on the major indexes are doing much better with the DJIA at 25 plus and 5 down, SPX at 380 up and 120 down and NDX at 83 up and 17 down.

GOOG GS MS AAPL SMH all trade green while the best performers are airlines, gaming, trannies, retail, brokers, software, tech, drugs, biotech and reits while oils, metals and homies all trade lower.

Big winners are SIRI XMSR TLAB CHRW ROST and AEOS while losers are JOYG PTEN AMZN ADBI and WFMI.

OPENING DAY

Markets are trading higher although off their best levels. DJIA +70 NAZ+22 and SPX +6. Looks like volatility will be the word of the day and I will probably stay on the sidelines.

ISM comes in a bit stronger than expected.

Strongest sectors are gaming, trannies, airlines, retail, drugs and software. The big loser, the oils as crude trades down to the $60 level and may be a buy here although the weather map shows no sign of colder weather.

GOOG GS AAPL MS all higher but off their highs.

Market internals show about 1k more winners than losers on both the NAZ and the NYSE.

NDX and OEX both show about 80 winners and 20 losers while the SPX is about 375 to 125 winners to losers.

The Russell started the morning as the strongest major market index but has since given up some of the margin and I expect it will be all over the board today.

Keep an eye on the DJIA 12,555 level as the markets have already been turned back from that second level of daily resistance.

NEW MARKET YEAR

Bring in the new and send out the old as the new trading year begins.

Stock index futures are way up (DJIA +70, SPX +8, NDX +17) on the heels of good overseas markets yesterday and probably no news of terror attacks which seems to send the markets down before holiday weekends (just an observation with no backtesting).

The headlines are oil is trading down 1% while Gold is slightly higher; Bob Nardelli resigns at HD, AAPL upgraded at a few firms as analysts think estimates are too low, GOOG added to select list at Stifel replacing EBAY, WMT trying to tighten the management of its labor force and ADP says employment for December will be down 40k which is bringing the rate on the 10 year Bond down to 4.65% and the Yankees are still trying to dump Randy for Roger.