Well I can declare victory and do what Kramer does, (take a little off the table) or suggest one trails the stop. My guess is we continue to move higher as folks conclude its the season to be bullish.
Strongest sectors, China- metals, emerging markets, oils, reits, real estate, internets and tech;
Weak links- airlines, financials, insurance, homies, drugs, defense, biotechs and utils;
Key stocks- 39 out of 40 higher led by WYNN RIMM BIDU DECK VMW GOOG TIF UA AAPL POT and LVS- lone loser- ICE;
NYSE internals- 1230 net green;
NAZ internals- 830 net green;
NDX -77 WINNERS;
OEX -90+ WINNERS;
IBD 100-85 WINNERS;
The WINNERS- BIDZ SNDA BIDU RIMM ABB BPHX CHL BUCY VMW EDU MDT GOOG GM LEH XOM BHI ROST WYNN PCAR DISCA AKAM CTXS JOYG;
The LOSERS- DISH RYAAY MXIM VMED INTU INFY LVLT CPB AIG PEP BA TGT JNJ FMCN GME YGE SLT HMSY TDG VSEC TKC ACO CLB;
VIX down 6% while the 10 Year Bond is back up to 4.11%;
Up volume almost 4X Down volume;
WYNN giving a little gotcha to folks who sold yesterday on the Barrons article by declaring a special $6 dividend. Maybe Wynn knows something Barrons doesn't.
The SPX back at 1,450- previous support now it may prove out to be short term resistance so careful- And this is probably the last post till Monday as I am gone North for the Holiday. And congrats to the folks that bought yesterday's fear as the NDX rips higher.
The easy trade looked a heck of a lot better before the FRE news hit the tape as the DJIA futs were up over 100 and the NQ about 25. I suspect the buyers will reappear before long and overhead resistance numbers:
And in today's IBD- the Big Cap 20- interesting stocks there include:
Not a pretty day as the markets close at/near the lows with the RUT/MID complex being the worst while the NDX was the best of the major indexes.
Market internals were crummy all day and closed with over 4,000 net losers on the NYSE/NAZ.
The OEX/NDX internals were also pretty bleak with about 25 gainers out of the 200 issues.
IBD 100- 15 WINNERS- as recent winners in the metals and material complex were drilled again.
Technically, the NDX held near the 50% retracement line at 2,021 while the SPX fell to weekly S1 at 1,433.
DJIA weekly support at 12,980 also now in the rear view mirror.
I am still holding on Long to the trade mentioned earlier this morning and it appears like I have some good company (RM sub).
There also may be an interesting trade in GS setting up as it is at its 50 day SMA.
Markets continue to trade lower but as usual "off their worst levels of the day." The DJIA has already touched 12,956 and the SPX- 1,431 before this small bounce.
Sectors- Best- utils- drugs, biotech, internets and large cap growth;
Worst- China, airlines, emerging markets, homies and brokers;
VIX- touched the 27 level but has since come off a bit with the markets;
NYSE - 2,250 net losers;
NAZ- 1,860 net losers;
NDX - 15 WINNERS;
OEX -12 WINNERS;
IBD 100- 12 WINNERS;
All the sectors pretty ugly with recent winners like consumers not a hiding place today as CL DEO GE K KMB KO PG SBUX all lower while retail, tech, oils, metals all ugly.
My optimism from the earlier post is we seem a little washed out here but the close is obviously what matters. And who exactly is bullish here and now?
THE EASY TRADE
Since everyone talks about the easy trade after it happens, lets see if this is it before it happens.
DJIA -170 NDX -26 and SPX -22.
The NDX is down near the 50% retracement level and the daily support line near 2,020. This may be an interesting area to try a long trade. CLICK ON CHART FOR BETTER VIEW.
The SPX down 22 and below the recent lows. SPX S2 also near here at 1,437, so maybe another level worth a long side shot.
The DJIA - near the recent lows at 12,975- S2 support also at 12,986;
So lots of areas lining up- the problems,
Market internals - very ugly;
Financials- very ugly;
SEMIS- bad but not awful;
And the RSI (2) numbers:
So I am looking for a quick long side shot with half around these levels and more probably near the close.
Markets open lower on the heels of another C downgrade and this time from GS and not some washed up WWE wife. The NDX/TECH is the place for now as AAPL BIDU EBAY HPQ IBM RIMM are all green on a predominantly red screen.
The DJIA is -68, NAZ -12 and SPX -10.
Strongest sectors- utils, internets, tech, biotech and larg cap growth;
Weak sectors- China, airlines, homies, emerging markets, brokers, financials, retail and banks;
NYSE internals- 1,870 net losers;
NAZ internals- 1,300 net losers;
IBD 100- 30 WINNERS;
NDX - 25 WINNERS;
OEX -15 WINNERS;
Key stocks- 12 out of 40 green led by ICE CME MCD GRMN AMZN MO GS AAPL ISRG and bidu; losers- LVC C WYNN POT MER MS BG BAC NVDA VMW;
WINNERS- DISH JOYG ATVI VRSN QCOM AKAM XRX SO BMY MCD NSM DELL AES GS TDG BIDZ STP ACO HMSY DSX FTI NOK ABAX;
LOSERS- BPHX EJ ABB LKQX BHP GGB FCX C GM ATI MS MER RF LTD COF AXP AA FDX LOGI RYAAY WFMI WYNN EXPE UAUA;
VIX - higher by 4% and a bit surprising as it is a short week and lots of trading will be coming off the board;
Down Volume about 4X Up Volume;
Key levels to watch:
NDX 2023 (50% retracement) Pivot Point 2036;
SPX 1450 (Line in sand) Pivot Point 1455;
DJIA- 13,080 Daily Support- 12,975 (recent lows)
I would be feeling more bullish if the internals and financials weren't so crummy but it its what it is. Also curious to see how much damage appears in the gaming area in light of the Barron's article.
Barrons - bearish on MGM WYNN LVS LLY and ADM and bullish on Japan (EWJ JOF TM NMR) and BCS.
Not surprisingly, they are bearish on the casinos- MGM is +55%, WYNN+43% and LVS +33% and that is after a stellar 2006 where they increased +56%, +71% and +127% respectively.
Why is Barrons bearish-
waning margins as supply catches up with demand;
limited pool of skilled workers in Macau;
potential cost overruns;
limited non gambling revenues;
Not sure if the bulls or bears are correct on the gaming stocks but I do know there are some very savvy folks long the stocks:
MGM - more than 50% of shares owned by Kirkorian and about 8% owned by Marsico funds.
LVS- more than half owned by founder Sheldon Adelson and another 8% owned by Marsico funds.
WYNN- Steve Wynn with more than 20%, Marsico funds with over 13%, Baron funds with about 6% and David Winter's WGRNX fund with about 1,400,000 shares.