THE CLOSE

Markets closed at their highs led by financials, brokers, banks and airlines while gaming, semis, homies and tech lagged.

Key stocks- mainly lower with MA MER NYX BG GRMN BAC ISRG GS leading while MGM AMZN VMW WYNN AAPL UA and LVS lagged;

NYSE- 400 net losers;

NAZ - 775 net losers;

NDX-30 GREEN;

OEX- 45 GREEN;

IBD -24 GREEN;

VIX - 25 and closed down 2% despite the flattish SPX- a little 3 day weekend no doubt the blame;

TRIN- .8

Up and Down volume about equal and higher today near 1.5 B shares traded;

The brokers pulled the SPX up into the close as rumors of a suitor for BSC appeared. I wouldn't bet the ranch on it but the XLF was up 1.4% on a flat to down day.

Next week, no clue what to expect as we are in a fairly tight range and a move up or down will probably lead to a bigger move in that direction.

And if W pardons the rocket will he also pardon juicer number 1?

OPENING LOOK

Markets open lower but are well off their worst levels as I type. Bringing the markets down - bad news from BBY and a lousy number out of the wolverines- with consumer confidence at 69.6 v a 75+ number expectation.

Big caps are better than small and to everyone's surprise the XLF is green - BSC +4% showing the way.

Strong sectors include airlines, metals, drugs, financials and oils while real estate, gaming, homies, defense and semis lag.

Key stocks- lower - Winners- MO NYX PG MSFT KO BAC- Losers- MGM VMW LVS WYNN UA MTW ICE AMZN MA TIF;

NYSE/NAZ - 2,100 net losers;

NDX- 25 GREEN;

OEX- 30 GREEN;

IBD - 20 GREEN;

VIX- 24.45 and down 4% in front of the 3 day weekend;

TRIN- .7

Down vol about 2X Up volume;

Watching SPX 1,340 as that is recent support- the lousy internals probably hinting it won't hold through the day.

TECHNICALS -SPX

Markets are set top open lower after yesterdays crushing and a signal indicating lower prices may be in place.

The SPX made its high on October 11, 2007 at 1,576 and a low on January 23, 2008 at 1,270 or a 306 point swing in 3.5 months. For now support on the chart at 1,340 and resistance near 1,390.

Most want to see those lows get retested and hold - as there should be a lot of buyers anywhere near those low levels assuming a big bad event doesn't occur at the same time.

If one looks closely at the chart (click on it), one can see that volatility has become a bit compressed as the Bollinger Bands have moved inside the Keltner lines. When the bands revert outside the Keltner lines momentum accelerates in the direction of price.

THE CLOSE

General rule- markets that are weak all day tend to close at/near their lows- good advice- especially during a prolonged down trending market. The DJIA closed -180, NAZ -41 and SPX -19.

Strongest sectors- MOO, gld, oils, insurance and internets while airlines, retail, homies, semis, banks and small caps lagged.

Key stocks- 4 out of 40 higher - best- BIDU XOM POT NYX - worst- NVDA DECK UA INTC ICE KLAC WYNN MTW MER SMH AMZN ISRG;

NYSE- 1,740 net losers;

NAZ- 1,300 net losers;

NDX- 15 WINNERS;

OEX-10 WINNERS;

IBD - 25 WINNERS;

VIX- 25.3 and up about 2% and still way under the 10 SMA;

TRIN- 1.19

Down volume 4X Up volume; Total volume ultra ultra lite and not quite 1.3B shares;

60 NH and 110 NL between NYSE and NAZ;

Banks and brokers ugly yet again and MBI/ABK up 9/14% respectively;

Technically, SPX didn't hold and next level near 1,340. And of course Jimmy Cramer yesterday with his can't miss indicators.

RSI (2) levels which flashed a big sell yesterday with all major indexes above 90 now as follows:

SPX 41

DJIA 42

NAZ 42

NDX 39

RUT 39

MID 34

OPENING CLUES

An uneventful start to the market day with the major indexes trading a bit under the flat line. Emerging markets, oils and biotech leading higher while retail, semis, tech and drugs lag.

Market internals- about 1,000 net losers on the NYSE/NAZ;

NDX/OEX both with about 40 winners and 60 losers;

IBD 100- 60 WINNERS;

VIX- near the flat line and in over sold territory;

Checking the emerging markets year to date- EWZ Brazil almost near the flat line while the DJIA/SPX still down about 6% on the year;

CLOSING JIG

Markets close near the high with the DJIA +180, NAZ +54 and SPX +18. RUT/NDX/TECH led the way with all being up more than 2%.

Strongest sectors- exactly what the bulls (cept financials) wanted to see- oils, metals, semis, telecom, tech, small caps, emerging markets and internets while gaming, financials and utils lagged.

Key stocks- 30/40 GREEN led by - BIDU RIMM DECK MTW AMZN NVDA ISRG AAPL KLAC SMH and GOOG- while WYNN BG LVS TIF KO POT NYX GS PG MS were red;

NYSE -1,000 net losers;

NAZ- 1,300 net losers;

NDX- 85 WINNERS;

OEX- 80 WINNERS;

IBD 100- 80 WINNERS;

WINNERS- AA ROK ATI SLB HAL AXP BHI VRTX AMAT BIDU RIMM CDNS JNPR LINTA DISCA CMED TTES MXB RIMM MORN AGU HDB SID MTW AAPL SMH DECK;

OIH recovered over 4% and that is probably a good place to buy on pullbacks.

And we moved above SPX 1,360 and the next level of resistance is at/near 1,390 SPX and 12,620 DJIA (38.2 FIB).

So who believes Roger or the lying facts?

MIDDAY ROCKET

Some one is not telling the truth and I just need to know who it is - well gee whiz.





Anyhow, markets are higher led by the NDX and the RUT while large cap value is lagging.





Strongest sectors- oils, semis, telecom, tech, metals and emerging markets while gaming, financials and utils are lagging.





NYSE- 700 net winners;


NAZ- 1,200 net winners;


NDX- 85 GREEN;


OEX- 80 GREEN;


IBD - 75 GREEN;


VIX- down 5% and approaching the 10% below the 10 SMA level;


TRIN- .65;

Up volume 3X Down volume;

GS up $4 from the morning lows- no idea what the deal is here- but it seems cheap-

Technically, yesterdays highs now in the rear view mirror and lets see if they close above.

OPENING RIP/DIP

Markets have again given back much of the opening gap up and the highs from yesterday (20 EMA) are again rejected as stiff resistance.

Market internals remain strong through the dip lower but the action in the brokers/banks continues to be just awful.

So with all the banks/brokers trading lower, I refuse to get long for a trade as lower prices seem to be the most likely path. And fighting the "sell the gap open higher" trade has worked about every time since the beginning of the year.

Key stocks mixed with RIMM MTW SMH DECK AAPL KLAC higher while WYNN BG GRMN GS LVS MS TIF MER NYX C lower;

GS now trading at about 8x and 1.7x Book Value. Not sure why it gets crushed every day but it does and the longer term profit potential from these levels looks pretty pretty good.

THE CLOSE

One of those days where "don't like the price, just wait awhile - it will get there." The DJIA close the day +134, NAZ FLAT, and SPX +10. The DJIA traded in a 230 point range and closed about 90 points off the highs. The NDX was positive but weak most of the day and managed to close at the flat line after falling about 12 shortly before the close.

Strong sectors- insurance, ags, real estate, emerging markets, telecom, drugs and banks while metals, homies, airlines, oils and internets lagged.

Market internals were green by about 1,200 issues on the NYSE and NAZ but also were much better early in the day.

NDX/OEX both closed with more issues higher than lower but also were much better in the morning.

Notable weakness in the brokers gave indications early that it was going to be tough to hang on to all the gains. In additon, the RSI (2) levels hit earlier also indicated - hmmmm, markets are short term overbought.

SPX 1,340 held as short term support and today's highs become resistance- 1,365 area.

I remain longer term bullish and suspect folks who buy today for long term investments will be well rewarded 24/36 months out with gains near the 35% area.

THE LEGG UP

Markets contine to trade higher but way off their best levels. Strongs sectors found here- MOO, insurance, reits, emerging markets, telecom, banks, gaming and drugs- weak links- metals, airlines, homies, retail and the NDX;

The saying that markets that are strong all day tend to close at/near their higher may be a loser today as it looks like stocks want to roll over.

Market internals holding up pretty well while the crummy action in the brokers GS LEH BSC leads me to believe we will close near the lows.

Interesting note on Briefing.com about Bill Miller's letter to shareholders- the key takeaways:

"The valuation disparity between Treasuries and stocks is as great today in favor of stocks as it was in favor of Treasuries 20 years ago. Just prior to the Crash of 1987, stocks yielded about 2% (same as today), but traded at over 20x earnings. The 10-year Treasury yielded over 10%, vs. 3.6% today. The two-year Treasury now has a lower yield than the S&P 500, and that is before share repurchases, meaning you can get a greater yield in an index fund than you can in the two-year, and a free long-term call option on growth."

"Even more compelling are financials, where you can get dividend yields about double that of Treasuries, which only adds to their allure, with them trading at price-to-book value ratios last seen at the last big bottom in financials."

More "stocks are cheap" chatter.

MARKETS HIGHER

Markets are ripping higher led by big caps and large cap value while the NDX/NAZ lags a bit. Techs lagging as AAPL RIMM YHOO HHH all flat or lower.

Strongest sectors- emerging markets, EFA, real estate, insurance, banks, gaming and telecom while homies, metals, internets and biotech lags.

Key stocks- 35/40 GREEN- ICE POT BIDU NVDA C MA WYNN DECK CME LVS losers- GS RIMM APPL MO.

NYSE- 1,560 net winners;

NAZ- 1,050 net winners;

NDX -75 WINNERS;

OEX-90 WINNERS;

IBD 100- 74 WINNERS;

IBD 20- 18/20 GREEN;

VIX - down 7.5% and 5% below the 10 SMA;

TRIN- .5 pretty low;

10 year Bond- screaming up to 3.7%;

Up volume 6X Down volume;

RSI (2) levels hitting over bought as most major indexes now trade at /near the 85 level.

Technically, SPX looks to be no mans land with 1,340 area now support and 1,390 area resistance.

And what is the deal with GS - why so doggy of late?

THE ORACLESEE

So Warren drives up the futures by agreeing to insure some municipal bond good stuff at the troubled insurers while agreeing not to touch the bad stuff and he even declares that stocks are trading at fair value. So if you ever wondered how Warren got to be a multi multi billionaire now you know. Lets insure stuff that doens't need insurance.

Anyhow, interesting bit out of MORN this morning on the fair value they percieve for the DJIA (incl HON and MO). Here are the highlights:

1) the DJIA is trading at/near a 17% discount to their estimate of fair value;

2) the DJIA is trading at its cheapest valuation since September 2002 (a pretty pretty good time to buy it);

3) biggest discounts to fair value at C (56%), AIG (62%), HD (65%), AXP (66%),

4) only MCD and T trade at/near fair value;

THE CLOSE

Put it in the book as the DJIA climbs 57, NAZ +15 and SPX +8. Large cap growth and the NDX led the way while the RUT lagged.

Strongest sectors- oils, retail, gaming, semis, internets and homies while insurance, financials, reits and banks lagged.

Key stocks- 25/40 GREEN leaders- BIDU RIMM POT BG LVS AAPL AMZN VMW SMH- losers- GRMN MS MSFT C MO CELG GS TIF BAC;

NYSE/NAZ flat internals;

NDX- 65 GREEN;

OEX-65 GREEN;

IBD 100- 67 GREEN;

VIX - flattish

TRIN- .71;

Up vol 8/5 over Down with overall light numbers;

It will be interesting to see if tech can get some jig going forward- after all the wizard of wall street did mention the other day how tech can't be owned. The same with financials and they were pretty bad most of the day.

RSI (2) levels near the middle of their ranges with NDX/MID and Large Growth at the upper end and Large and Small Value at the lower end of the range.

MIDDAY CHECK

Markets have flipped to green and a another move higher in the late afternoon would not be surprising.

RUT/MID's lagging while large cap growth /NDX is leading;

Tech, oils, homies, retail and internets are leading while insurance, real estate and biotechs lag.

Market internals near the flat line but looking the best on the NDX and IBD 100.

My trades have been on the long side and the QLD specifically as the tech sector gave a nice clue that dips were for buying.

NYSE volume has also flipped to almost 2/1 green while the VIX is trading near the flat line;

XLF also coming off the bottom and NYX up almost 2%;

THE OPEN

Markets open lower on the heels of changes to the DJIA and bad news out of insurance gain AIG. The DJIA -95, NAZ -7 and SPX -9.

Sector winners- semis, gaming, tech, internets and staples while insurance, airlines, banks, real estate and metals lag.

Key stocks- 15 /40 higher- leaders- RIMM VMW BIDU AAPL WYNN BG SMH UA INTC MGM;- laggards- GRMN C TIF MSFT MS CELG MTW MER;

NYSE- 1,150 net losers;

NAZ -550 net losers;

NDX-35 WINNERS;

OEX- 25 WINNERS;

IBD 100- 40 WINNERS;

Bad timing on the XLF with the insurance component but not giving up on the trade yet;

Interesting how DJIA adding BAC to the index while it has all the supprime problems- A bit different than the addtion of MSFT /INTC near their tops.

THE FIBS

Not much news this weekend except for the rejection of the MSFT offer by the YHOO board. Seems to be a bit similiar to the rejection by BEAS of the ORCL offer. We know how that turned out.

FWIW- some important areas on the chart for the SPX/DJIA/NDX;

The SPX had a low to high from about 770 in Oct 2002 to a high of 1,576 in Oct 2007. The 61.8 FIB retracement is at/near 1,270, which also happens to coincide nicely with the Januray 23 low.

Also, note the 50% retracement level is the 1,175 area - hopefully we aren't going that low.

The DJIA- hit its high on October 9 at the 14,200 level and the low in Oct 2002 at/near 7,200. The 61.8 retracement level at/near 11,500 and the January low was 11,635. The 50% retracement level near 10,700- hopefully not seen.

The NDX low 795 and the high 2,239 with a recent low of 1,693, quite near the 61.8 FIB at 1,687. The 50% retracement quite a bit lower near 1,520.

My guess is the recent lows get retested but also find lots of buyers near those levels if/when they get tagged.