7.06.2007

THE CLOSE


Markets closed near their highs led by metals, retail, homies, oils, brokers and semis while utilities, biotechs, drugs and reits lagged.


The MID was the best performing major index followed by the NAZ and the big caps.


Big winners included CTSH INFY EBAY APOL MICC SHLD TGT ROK CAT CBS XOM BIDU WBD DRYS SPAN and BTJ.


Big losers included SYNL DWSN MTOX EOC SPEC IP ETR BMY VZ ATI SO GM GENZ AKAM XMSR ADSK INTU and BEAS.


Brokers/Xchanges/PE stocks acted well led by BOT CME GS ICE NMX and NYX;


Gaming also acting well as MGM hit another new high;


Just about every metal stock higher led by ABER BHP FCX GDX PAAS and SSRI;


About 30 oil stocks on my screen and all higher cept for one- DVN- leaders inlcuded HOC TSO XOM CAM CNX EAC and RIG- most also with 2 day RSI readings at/near 95;


About 15 retail stocks on the screen and all green but UA - leaders COST CROX CWTR HD M SHLD and TGT;


The NDX showed about 7 out of 10 issues higher while the OEX had a little more than 6 out of 10 in the green.


The VIX closed down near 14.72 and trades about 8% below its 10 day SMA. The 2 day RSI on most of the major indexes in over bought territory so maybe a rally into the beginning of the week on more merger news than a sell off as traders take profits.


AFTERNOON LOOK


Markets are higher led by metals, retail, homies, oils and semis while utilities, biotechs, drugs and banks lag.




Winners include CTSH INFY EBAY MNST MICC SHLD TGT CAT ROK XOM HD CVX HAL WBD SPAN BTJ NVEC BIDU DRYS and TLVT.




Losers- AAPL AMZN GOOG RIMM AKAM AMAT MSFT DFS (every day) SYNL MTOX DWSN RRST IP ETR ATI BMY GENZ XMSR ATVI ADSK and BSC.




Market internals are bullish with a net 620 green on the NYSE and 400 net green on the NAZ.


Brokers/Financials/Xchanges starting to light up the board bullish action on IAI BOT BX CME GS ICE NDAQ NYY and TROW.


Drugs/Biotechs lagging;


Semis act well but AAPL AKAM AMAT AMZN GOOG MSFT RIMM all red;


The NDX/OEX are both nicely bullish with about 3 up to every 2 down;


Up volume about double the down volume;


Volatility indexes down about 3.5% and trade under 15 and about 7% under the 10 day SMA.


Sell signals starting to mount as the 2 day RSI numbers hit mid 90's and VIX/VXO approaching the 90% of 10 day SMA area.






MORNING TAKE


Markets open mixed as the DJIA leads with oils, metals, retails, semis and brokers while real estate, biotech, utilities, internets and small caps lag.


Winners include ROK CAT HAL MICC INFY CTSH JOYG NVEC BTJ WBD TNE ACH BIDU CMG CNH ICE TSO GS SYK and BHP.


Losers include SPTN TBSI MA FCSX SF MTOX ATI EK IP ETR GENZ ATVI XMSR MRVL and CME.


Market internals are flat on the NYSE/NAZ after opening red while the OEX shows 45 up and 55 down and the NDX shows flat.


DJ is up 1.5% and trading at 58.75 despite the denials from DJ that a deal is done;


Metal stocks are higher despite lower gold- hmmm;


OIH hits a new all time high;


Tech acting fair with HHH AAPL AKAM AMAT AMZN GOOG HPQ MSFT red while SNDK RIMM INFY CTSH all green;


Up volume trouncing Down volume 1.5/1 despite the flattish internal leading to a low TRIN reading of .63;


VIX down 2.7% to 15;


The 2 day RSI readings on most major indexes above 90 with the highest readings found on NDX DJUSGS DJUSGL QQQQ NAZ;



PRE MARKETS


The jobs number came in at/near the target - 132K but prior months numbers were revised upward. Immediate impact on equities was tame but Bonds have sold off as the 10 year yields 5.195 as I type.


In other news, Rupert seems to have a done deal with DJ as the Bancrofts throw in the towel and finally realize there are no alternatives.


CME sweetening bid for CBOT;


CNBC guests say buy big caps with yields and generally no harm from higher yields until rates hit 5.5% on the 10 year. Same guys have been bulling large caps for years-


FWIW- large caps have been under performing again of late as the OEX is +6.4% vs. MID CAPS +13.3%; DJIA +8.8% and RUT +7.9%; So it wasn't the small caps or the large caps but the Mid Caps out performing for 2007.


Breaking it down further- small cap growth up 17% while small cap value flat.






7.05.2007

THE CLOSE


Markets closed with the tech heavy NAZ/NDX higher while the DJIA was lower with the SPX unchanged.


Strong sectors included reits, real estate, gaming, metals, airlines, retail and tech while brokers, banks, trannies and large cap value lagged.


Big winners included UAUA ERTS AAPL ESRX GOOG IP ORCL HON IBM BTJ MTL GES RIMM CPA and BHP.


Big losers- WBD ACH SYNA DWSN SNP WFR LFL GM AXP GS JOYG PTEN CHRW ATVI and MICC.


Volatility indexes were higher and are trading near the 10 day SMA.


Note the 2 day RSI numbers on the DJIA - 79, SPX 93, NDX 99, NAZ 97, RUT 89, MID 93- so some sell signals as some of the "tech heavy" indexes are over bought.


Other readings worth noting:


BRK.A 99


MO 96


ITA 99


MGM 97


CVC 99


LCAPA 99


BHP 99


HON 99


SLG 96


UA 98


AAPL 96


CSCO 100


GOOG 96


UAUA 100


Low readings:


AMGN 3


IACI 2


PTEN 3




AFTERNOON SNOOZE


Markets continue to trade lower amid some strength in the NDX. And as predicted, crude has flipped to green on the heels of the inventory build announced this morning.


The banks are conspicuously weak with BAC C DFS JPM MA MTB WB WFC all red.


Strong sectors include gaming, reits, real estate, metals, airlines, defense and retail; laggards include utilities, banks, internets and brokers.


Winners include XMSR MGM UAUA AAPL ERTS HON GOOG TNE BTJ TLVT FCSX AAPL RIMM and CPA.


Losers include WBD ACH SYNA DWSN WFR MTB GM F PTEN JOYG ATVI CHRW AMZN MICC and PCAR.


Volatility indexes higher and generally back to the 10 day SMA line.


Market internals are red with the NYSE at -825 and the NAZ at -600.


The OEX is 2/1 red to green while the NDX is 3/2 red to green.


The IBD 100 is strong with 54 up and 46 down.


Low 2 day RSI readings found at AMGN PTEN IACI

MORNING MARKETS


Markets trade mixed one hour into the show but small/mids and the NAZ are beating up on the big caps. Rates are moving up as the 10 year trades to 5.11%


Strong sectors include reits, real estate, gaming, airlines, small cap growth and oil service while internets, semis, banks and trannies lag.


Big winners include GOOG RIMM WMB HON AAPL UAUA BTJ TNE TLVT NVEC PCR BHP OPY and TWIN.


Big losers include ACH WBD RRST DWSN SYNA GM F HAL TWX PTEN ATVI JOYG FLEX AMAT INFY and FISV.


Market internals are flat on the NYSE/NAZ while about 3/2 red to green on the NDX/OEX.

A build in crude is causing a modest sell off in the oil sector after moving higher earlier this morning. Expect lower prices to be bought - just seems to happen every inventory day when numbers are bearish. And this guy on CNBC as I type- very bearish- just wish Liz et al would ask him how long he has been bearish- never - he could say 2003 and then how would the journalist feel?


EWA at an all time high this AM on the heels of higher metal stocks especially BHP. Still buying all pullbacks on EWA.




7.03.2007

THE CLOSE


Markets closed higher again with the NDZ/NAZ group leading the way higher.


Strongest sectors included airlines, trannies, brokers, oils, tech and financials while homies, retail, metals and reits lagged.


Market internals were bullish on NYSE with 820 net gainers while the OEX showed almost 3 up to every 1 down and the NDX showed about even between winners and losers.


The VIX dipped down under 15 and now trades about 5% below its 10 day SMA while the VXO is more stretched and about 11% below its 10 day SMA.


Most of the major indexes are very overbought with 2 day RSI readings at/near 95; and about 32% of the OEX components trade at/over 90 readings ( 15% of the NDX components and 40% on the IBD 100). Also, note there aren't many components trading with readings under 10 (5 between IBD OEX and NDX).


Be careful and trail the stops.




THE OPEN


Markets open higher as rates hover near the 5% level making equities less expensive on a relative basis. Markets also seem to be getting some jig from AAPL which is up over $3.5 after a little sell off yesterday.


Strong sectors include airlines, trannies, brokers, banks, tech, oils and utilities; laggards include metals, biotech, retail and small cap value.


Winners include AAPL MRVL JNPR UAUA AVP ROK VZ IBM MS ACH RRST INWK BTJ CRDN TBSI and CRDN.


Losers include WFR TLVT SPEC RIMM F CAT KFT ADSK SNDK XMSR MICC TWX and GM.


Market internals are flat on the NAZ and about 900 net green on the NYSE.


The NDX also shows flat internals while the OEX shows about 7 up to every 3 lower.


Markets are currently in overbought territory with the 2 day RSI readings on most major indexes above 90. The NDX and RUT Value both sit at 97 so trail the stops or start scaling out as who knows what July 4 may bring.

PRE MARKETS


Markets are set top open higher this morning as European markets rip higher.


In the news- the New York Post reports that CVC is probably worth twice what the Dolan's are offering as free cash flow is expected to double by 2011.


PPS rumored to be a takeover target.


Gapping up- AVNR LXRX SNCR DAR FRPT IMMU CRY ACAS CSUN IOC WEN SI JNPR;


Gapping down- NLST DTLK POOL SMOD ZVUE MRVC SAP F CAT MT;


Expect choppy trading with light volume as the markets close early to celebrate the July 4 holiday.


7.02.2007

THE CLOSE


Markets closed at/near their highs with the small/mid caps out performing by a pretty wide margin.


Strong sectors included reits, metals, utilities, oils, brokers and defense while gaming and retail under performed.


Big winners included VMED MICC S NVDA JOYG BK EXC LTD ATI BIDU BTJ NVEC RRST RIMM and MTL.


Losers- FMCN FCSX LEH VSEA ICE INTU SNDK VRTX and SYMC.


Market internals were very bullish all day with almost 2,000 net gainers on the NYSE while there were 950 net gainers on the NAZ.


Also, better than 3/1 winners to gainers on both the NDX and the OEX while the IBD 100 Showed 85 up and 15 down.


The VIX was down 5% while the VXO lost almost 12%; the VXO is about 9% under its 10 day SMA while the VIX is hanging in just under its 10 day SMA.


The 2 day RSI readings on the major indexes are sitting at over bought levels at/near 90 with the NDX sitting at 95 while the RUT, despite today's out performance, is still only at a reading of 80.

AFTERNOON RAMP


Markets haven't budged much since the early morning ramp but oil has flipped the switch and now trades solidly in the green along with most oil related equities.


Other strong sectors include reits, metals, brokers, utilities, semis and small caps while gaming, retail and homies lag. The Donald seems to have destroyed some gaming capital with his decision not to sell out.


Key stocks generally higher with the exception of the xchanges; GS LM BSC MTB WB SLG MO MSFT TXN INTC RIMM GOOG AMZN DNA SGP green while BOT CME ICE NMX AKAM GE AAPL MGM WYNN LVS all red.


Market internals are bullish with 1,775 net winners on the NYSE and 900 net green on the NAZ.


The OEX is 7/3 green to red while the NDX is better at almost 9/1 green to red.


Big winners include BK S LTD VMED MICC NVDA GRMN JOYG COST RRST NVEC BTJ RIMM CMCO BIDU GSOL and MTOX.


Big losers- FMCN FCSX LEH.


Low 2 day RSI stocks include YHOO SYNL and AIG.


THE OPEN


Markets open and sub prime /terror activity flip to the side lines as the SPX regains the 50 day SMA and the markets move decisively higher.


Strong sectors include utilities, fixed income, metals, oils, real estate, banks, semis and midcaps.


Strongest stocks include BK S MDT ATI VMED JOYG FLEX PCAR JNPR ERTS GSOL NVEC BTJ CMCO OPY and SPAN.


Weakest stocks include FMCN CYNO TLVT PCLN ICE FCSX AAPL LEH AVP ME MRK EP IP T MRVL and BEAS.


Market internals are very strong with a net of 1,750 green stocks on the NYSE and about 850 net green on the NAZ.


The OEX shows almost 9/1 winners to losers while the NDX is about 3/1 up to down.


Volatility indexes are down to the 15.5 levels and trading at/near their respective 10 day SMA's.


Finally, the NDX 100 is trading back at its 52 week high on the heels of recent strength in tech while the SPX is about 25 points below the recent high and the DJIA is about 200 off the all time high.


PRE MARKET


Futures are up this AM on the heels of 2 takeovers in the telecom industry and probably some better than expected numbers from the AAPL camp. Also propping the markets may be the fact of no significant terror incidents over the weekend.


The SPX looks again to retake the 50 day SMA near the 1,509 level after Friday's extremely volatile trade. Hopefully some calm will hit the markets this week as the July 4 holiday is celebrated mid week.


Wachovia says brokerage valuations are becoming "too good to pass up." They note the group is currently trading at 2.07X book value- almost the lowest year to date- they believe 3-5% downside and 15-20% upside potential- LEH top pick followed by MER and GS.


According to reuters, AAPL sold 525k IPHONES since the 6-29 launch; and 50% of West coast AAPL stores sold out on the first day.


Also note, slowly under the radar, the rate on the 10 year Bond has drifted down to 5.037%, way off its recent high near 5.32%.


Gapping up - LOCM VMED IOC DCEL FRZ XFML TRA BCE;