JUST SCALPING

Done for the day after scalping SDS for a whole 15 cents- anyhow here is the RSI (2) update:

SPX 14

DJIA 19

NAZ 16

NDX 12

EWA 10

EWC 27

XLE 6

OIH 3

UNG 3

The VIX is trading about even with SMA 10- and if we tank again on Monday - we could get some nice over bought levels there-

I may dip in and buy back some EWA sold higher - and will wait on adding to UNG - as that looks like it wants to go lower-

One other thing- this recovery - when ever it appears will be sub normal and long term investing - dead gone dead sheet over the head.

THE BET

Its plain and simple ugly with the DJIA -188, NAZ 48 and SPX -21- also note all support such as 20/50 day moving averages solidly above prices-

Trade of the day- short pullups as days like this generally close near the lows.

THE DOWN

Pre Market equity futures are trading lower this morning on the heels of the ugly jobs report- which showed we lost 467,000 jobs in June - much worse than the 350K loss consensus and the 440K whisper number.

ES -11;

NQ -8;

YM -104;

Areas to watch for support include the weekly pivot on ES at 906- which is where we are trading as I type- and the SMA 50 on the ES which is at 903-

On the SPX - the SMA 50 is at 907 and the EMA on the 20 day is 918.

Bond yields are moving down - the dollar moving up and crude/gold also all lower-

BESPOKE on the 6 month wild ride;

On a lighter note- well maybe not;

WMD- I guess we read it wrong;

THE CLOSE

Not a pretty close for the bulls as equity markets gave back much of the early gains- the SPX +4, NAZ +11 and the DJIA +57.

Strong sectors- metals, small caps, trannies, semis and real estate while junk, internets, biotech and banks lagged.

NYSE- 1400 net winners;

NAZ- 1000 net winners;

SPX- 330 GREEN;

NDX- 62 GREEN;

VIX- flattish at 26.25;

Up volume almost 2x the down on not quite 1B shares traded.

Oil lower gold higher dollar down EURO UP;

Had a nice trade in the morning buying the dip but never reentered as the long side seemed to be losing momentum all afternoon- and for anyone interested - check the 20 EMA on a 5 minute chart of the ES- usually a pretty good tell of which side of the index to trade- check it out.

My UNG trade- not so good so far - but I am looking to buy more on lower prices -

Trading tomorrow probably range bound and light - and with RSI (2) levels near 60 on major indexes - and stochastic in the middle of the range - with the SPX - well not to exciting.

MORNING GIFT

Markets are way up this morning - and if you had not noticed- totally ignoring the bad jobs number from ADP and ignoring the lousy economic numbers released at 10 AM.

Currently, SPX +11.55, NAZ +25 and the DJIA +125.

Strong sectors- metals, trannies, small caps, semis and retail while junk, biotech, banks and telecom lags.

NYSE- 2000 net winners;

NAZ- 1300 net winners;

SPX- 425 GREEN;

NDX- 86 GREEN;

VIX- down 5% at 25;

Commodities were strong but have since turned down on the release of the crude inventory numbers.

The fish bought the dip at the release of the economic numbers and have since sold most of the inventory on the ramp higher. One thing I learned is that when markets are strong before the release of economic numbers - and they go down on the release - BUY - the markets generally move back to where they were before the release. And that was today's trade - and if we drift lower before late afternoon I will be buying again.

PRE MARKET LOOK

Equity futures are trading higher but off their best levels as they took a hit on the release of the ADP survey which showed the private sector lost 473kl jobs which was much worse than expected.





ES +3.5;


NQ +9.5;


YM +33;





- crude higher, dollar lower. gold/silver higher and nat gas down.





After the late day rally yesterday - equities are in the middle of their RSI (2) levels as follows:





SPX 45;


DJIA 41


NAZ 54


NDX 52





It looks to this fish like some money will be coming into equities today as folks want in on this big bull market- as the SPX is +1.8% for they year, the DJIA -3.8% AND THE NAZ +16.4% AND THE NDX+21.9%- so its clearly a question of where one has been hiding to determine ytd performance-

And C upgrades BAC to it aggressive growth list.

Links:





Hard to believe more problems at BAC;





Mortgage App collapse;





The CASE Shiller 100 year chart;





More drug co problems probably lie ahead;





Ruth looks to be off the hook;





C looking to make money any way possible;

MORNING MOVES

Markets moved lower at/near 10.00 eastern on the release of the confidence number - and it missed- Currently the SPX -13, NAZ -15 and the DJIA -123.

Strong sectors- real estate, semis, retail, small caps and junk while metals, commodities, oil service, brokers and telecom lag.

NYSE 1100 net losers;

NAZ- 600 net losers;

NDX- 13 GREEN;

SPX- 47 GREEN;

VIX- higher by 8% at 27.35;

Down volume about 6x the down;

Gold, oil and nat gas all lower;

Bought some SDS this morning as it appeared something with the bulls was out of whack as futures were moving up while financials were going lower and internals were flattish- and caught a nice move there- sold a bit too early- and will probably short again - this afternoon on a pull up.

ALL ABOUT TODAY

Equity futures are trading near fair value as I type while the US dollar has fallen down under the 80 number on the basket while the EURO is up at 1.41-

Gold higher at $941 and natty gas the big story down about 3% at $3.84- while crude is up a hair at about $72.

My take on equities - probably not much movement the rest of the week with some downward pressure next week as we are overbought with RSI 2 levels near 90 on the major indexes and the VIX about 15% under the SMA 10-

The nat gas trade is looking pretty good on the long side as it doesn't SEEM to want to go much below these levels - so I am looking at some UNG for a swing trade -

One other matter- for all you homeowners - today is your day.

THE CLOSE

The markets closed higher and near their best levels on the SPX/DJIA while the NAZ/NDX/RUT lagged big time.

Strongest sectors- ags, banks, telecom, energy and homies while small caps, trannies, metals and oil service lagged.

NYSE- 650 net winners;

NAZ- 250 net losers;

SPX - 360 GREEN;

NDX- 56 GREEN;

VIX- down 2% at 25.29;

Crude higher by $2.3 at $71.45;

Gold down $2 at $937.

Not going to make a big deal about today's trade as it appeared to be end of month/quarter mark ups. Tomorrow is turn around Tuesday and I suspect the bulls wont be as aggressive on the last day of the month. Also some new beginning of the month money coming on and after that I suspect a sell off- for now just day trading and buying dips as the bulls like to defend prices for now.

THE OPEN

Markets open mixed with the DJIA higher, SPX flat and the NAZ lower by 9.

Strongest sectors- ags, energy, materials, retail and trannies while biotech, small caps, real estate and internets lag.

NYSE- flat internals;

NAZ- 700 net losers;

NDX- 38 GREEN;

SPX- flat internals;

VIX- higher by 3% at 26.75;

Looking for dips to be bought today - witness the last few moments as folks who like to mark up into the end of periods probably going to be pretty active today as it is the last chance this month- also suspecting some money will come in at the beginning for the month- not sure why the DJIA is leading and the NAZ lagging - but it is.

NIGHT MOVES

Futures trading lower this evening at 6 o'clock with the ES -1.75, NQ -2.75 and YM -18.

My short term take on equities- probably a bit more upside action as we get markups on Monday and then beginning of the month, quarter, half money coming in for the rest of week - after that probably a dip as we are short term overbought according to RSI (2) levels - the VIX is way down on a relative basis - so probably good the next few days and not so good toward the end of the week.

Links form the last day or so:

BING preferable to GOOG but no one seems to care- yet;

MV on why Buy and Hold maybe dead;

DR. BRETT with some recent market lessons;

Dougie looking at some sideways action;

A QOTD from Kedrosky;

VIX+MORE looking at VIX mid 20's;

The Quant seeing some downside;

And the most expensive real estate in the world;