TECHNICALS -GS

Markets trying to stabilize/rebound and are now way off the lows near 1,449 +10, on the SPX and 13,000 +110 on the DJIA.

One stock I always watch and usually own is GS. (A pretty good pix above but one need to click on it.) It was near the flat line earlier this morning before turning up and did make it back to the $214 level. That level is the 38.2% retracement from the 250/158 high to low, and the 50 day SMA. So no surprise it turned around near those levels.

The 10 year Bond near 4.225% and how long before folks recognize that stocks are a better value than bonds.

THE OPEN

Markets open weak again on the heels of the WB write offs and rumors on Barclays. The DJIA is down 190, NAZ -57 and SPX -22.

Brokers, financials, airlines, banks, China, tech and retail the weakest sectors with drugs and yikes semis the best performers.

Only 3 of my key stocks are higher, MTW MO and KLAC while UA DECK MER VMW RIMM TIF BIDU and AMZN act the worst.

Market internals, about 3,800 net losers on the NYSE and NAZ.

NDX- 8 WINNERS;

OEX 10 WINNERS;

IBD 100- 10 WINNERS;

IBD 20-2 WINNERS;

Biggest winners- AMAT XMSR CEPH EBAY GRMN MRK CCU AXP TYC MO TO KO PG PCLN TKC BHP TISI VIVO CF;

Biggest losers- EJ WX FLIR GSOL SDA PDA CMED WB DELL MER MMM LEH ORCL IBM GM QCOM LBTYA LINTA RIMM TLAB APOL SPLS;

VIX higher by 7% near 28, the highest level in mid August, the prior market lows, 31+.

The SPX low of yesterday was at/near the 1,450 level and so far that level is holding. Note it is also the 61.8 FIB retracement level.

Watch the SMH, as many times they are the first to go green before a market turn. They are at the flat line as I type but something to keep an eye on.

RSI (2) on major indexes now in the low single digit range with the NDX at 4 and SPX at 7.

Big cap tech:

AAPL -1.4%

AMZN -3.5%

BIDU -4%

GOOG -3.5% and down about 75 points from its all time high on Wednesday at $747.

RIMM -4.4%

I was hoping for the green close but it didn't quite work out that way as the DJIA closed down 34, NAZ -53 and the SPX, which was green a few moments before the bell, was down one point. Folks got a little scared as they read this news in the middle of the day.

Check out some of the sectors, brokerage index (XBD) up .25%, BKX up 1.3%, utils +2% and small cap value+1.5%. RUT also closed green, higher by .6%.

Up volume better than Down volume on over 2B shares traded. Bulls should be encouraged by those numbers.

Key stocks- 15 out of 40 green with MS BG XOM NYX LVS JPM COST MO BAC the biggest winners while VMW BIDU RIMM NVDA ISRG GOOG AAPL MA GRMN the biggest losers.

Market internals were almost flat on the NYSE/NAZ after being way red for most of the day.

OEX- 55 WINNERS- ROK COF MS F ALL RF SO WFC KO USB; LOSERS- CSCO LTD ORCL EMC GOOG IBM HPQ INTC AIG;

NDX -30 WINNERS- CEPH BIIB APOL VRTX DISH SEPR CHRW XRAY PDCO CTAS- LOSERS-CSCO QCOM ORCL RIMM BRCM NVDA INTY ISRG AAPL NTAP GOOG;

IBD 100-38 WINNERS- EXLS CTRP MBT FSTR VIP WFR FTK AIRM TKC FCX-LOSERS-HDNG VMW EJ BIDU SSRX PCLN WX FMCN RIMM CMED GSOL ISRG;

VIX- down .5% and still way over bought;

No idea if we are "out of the woods" but it felt like capitulation as all the best performers of the year were sold heavily. RIMM GOOG AAPL AMZN BIDU etc all down big. Most of the brokers/banks closed green after getting crushed over the past few weeks. FWIW, C is down 40% on the year while the BKX index is down a hair over 20%. A bit sold out IMVHO.

The SPX touched the 61.8% FIB retracement level near 1,450 and bounced 25 points off of that level. The 200 day SMA is a bit above at 1,483 and the 50 day way above at 1,516, so technically those buy signals are not in place cause the indexes are under the 200 day SMA's although I suspect they will be above the 200 in another day or so.

BUY SIGNALS

Near the noon hour markets are way down with the DJIA -100, NAZ -54 and SPX -9. Shockingly, small cap value is still green while the RUT/MIDs are acting the best of the major indexes down only .3%.

Buy signals abound on the VIX/VXO/VXD/VXN stretch and the RSI (2) trading system. The volatility indexes are stretched as follows from their 10 day SMA's;

VIX +19%

VXO +24%

VXD +19%

VXN +14%

RSI (2) on various major indexes as follows:

SPX 11

OEX 9

DJIA 8

MID 14

RUT 14

NDX 7

COMPQ 7

And for those who want to load up on the three horseman or any other high octane tech you have your chance:

AAPL -6%

AMZN -5.5%

BIDU -10%

CSCO -8%

GOOG -6.5%

RIMM -10%

Seems a little like capitulation- so just a heads up.

ALLOVER THE BOARD

Markets have ticked lower after a higher open on the heels of some unfriendly news out of the Big Ben chronicles going on as I type. I am however expecting a move higher in the markets after this initial probe lower.

The CSCO kid also not helping the markets as tech is a wreck this AM with AAPL AMZN BIDU CSCO GOOG HPQ INTC NVDA RIMM all down around 2% or more.

Strong sectors include yikes, small caps, oils,metals, biotech, utils, banks and defense while tech airlines, china, semis, internets and homies are lagging.

Key stocks generally lower as MS GRMN XOM BAC POT NYX BG MGM BAM all green while VMW BIDU AMZN MTW INTC AMZN TIF GOOG AAPL MA NVDA all leading the markets lower.

NYSE and NAZ internals are green (+800)and a little surprising in light of the action in the major indexes.

NDX- 45 GREEN;

OEX - 60 GREEN;

IBD 100- 55 GREEN;

WINNERS- STP FTK TKC WFR RIO FCX CTRP GPOR MTB SNHY BIIB VRTX GRMN APOL EXPD MS AA COF ROK XOM CVX;

LOSERS- LTD ORCL CSCO EMC AIG IBM HPQ ORCL NTAP JNPR TLAB UAUA SNDK INFY HDNG SSRX WX EJ PBHX CRNT BHP;

VIX is not moving in light of the tech wreck and I suspect it is suggesting that the markets will turn around fairly soon and head higher.

Also interesting how Up volume is almost double Down volume;

WHERE 2?

Markets collapsed in the final hour yesterday as the 1,490 level on the SPX and the 200 day SMA was easily eclipsed. How now SPX? Well look like the the 50% FIB retracement from the recent highs and lows may come into play. The high on SPX on October 11 was 1,576 and the low on 8-16 was 1,371 which is a 205 point range. Half way up is abut 1,474 and we closed yesterday at 1475.62. So nothing is 100% in trading but this looks like a decent entry point for a move up to 1,490/1500 (prior resistance) or the 50 day SMA at 1,515. Again, click on the image for a much better picture.

UGLY IS UGLY DOES

Not a pretty close as markets closed at the lows of the day down 364 on the DJIA, NAZ -76 and SPX -45. RUT was of course the worst of the indexes down 3.25%.

Strongest of the bad sectors were, hard to believe, RETAIL, metals, drugs, gaming, semis, defense and utils while banks, brokers, china, insurance and homies were the worst of the bad.

Keys stocks almost all in the red with POT RIMM UA MA up and GRMN MTW VMW MS BAC NVDA C BAM JPM the worst/

VIX- up 24% and 22% above the 10 day SMA;

The 200 and 50 day SMA's are both above the closing prices on the SPX and the next stop may be the September lows near 1,430. It also could head back to the 50 day SMA at the 1,515 area. I suggest one look to buy lower and sell higher and right now its lower in a seasonally strong period for the markets. Some RSI (2) on today's close:

SPX 17

OEX 16

NAZ 18

NDX 20

RUT 18

DJIA 15

So not quite at the 10 level for the officially buy signals on the 2 day RSI trading system but pretty close and with the VIX way overbought above the 26 level, it is probably time for dippers to take partial positions although another dip in the morning is likely.

Final thought, we are back where we were before the first rate cut on September 18, so folks who want to buy for rate cuts have another shot at buying essentially before Big Ben took out the knife.

AFTERNOON WEAKNESS

Seems like this markets goes 3 steps down and 2 steps up as today is one of the steps down days with the DJIA down 250+ and the SPX -32 and under the all important support level of 1,490, the low of October 22, Nov 2 and Nov 5. Seems as if we stay under that level we could have some deep falling ahead of us/ or buyers may show up again at that level and scare the bears away.

Anyhow, strong sectors include metals, utils, drugs, insurance and retail while China, banks, brokers and airlines act the worst.

Key stocks- 5 out of 40 in the green led by RIMM POT UA AMZN and GOOG while GRMN VMW MS MTW NVDA and MER are the biggest losers.

Market internals ugly with 4k net losers between the NYSE and NAZ.

NDX - 15 WINNERS;

OEX -5 WINNERS;

IBD 100- 15 WINNERS;

IBD 20 - 4 WINNERS- RIMM POT MOS GOOG;

VIX +14% and close to the once magic 15% above the 10 day SMA level;

Ten year bond near the 4.35% level and how long before a swap by allocators out of bonds and into equities?

Big winners- CTSH RIMM VRSN SIRI DISH CL AES WMT ALL GOOG CF POT PCLN EJ;

DJIA- all 30 lower with AIG AXP and GM the biggest losers;

Lockhart and Poole out with comments that the markets aren't liking as I type. Seems like more rate cuts are on the way as is slower growth, higher inflation and a depressed housing market.

THE OPEN

Markets open lower on the heels of higher crude, higher metals, lower dollar and maybe overbought conditions of a range bound market.

The DJIA is -111, NAZ -20 and SPX -12. The RUT and Small Cap Value the worst performers yet again as both are down over 1%.

Strongest sectors are metals, biotechs, oils and gaming while airlines, financials, trannies, insurance and brokers lag.

Key stocks -10 out of 40 higher led by RIMM POT ISRG CME GOOG MA BAM DECK and lower by GRMN VMW MS MTW UA MER WYNN BG BAC GS and CELG.

Market internals pretty ugly with 3,000 net loser on the NYSE/NAZ.

OEX -9 GREEN;

NDX -15 GREEN;

IBD 100-20 GREEN;

WINNERS- WFR SNDA RIMM EJ SLT POT ARD SWN CMG CF VMED EXPE CTSH FLEX DISH JAVA ALL TWX WMB CL GOOG IBM NXY;

LOSERS- COF GM MS ROK WY AIG RF LEH GRMN EXM DSX STP EXLS VMW FTK TISI LFC PKX EXPD RYAAY YHOO UAUA PETM NTAP;

VIX trading up 8% and about 8% above the 10 day SMA;

How now SPX, well tough to tell but support she be found at 1,500 and then 1,490; on the upside probably capped again by yesterdays highs near 1,520. It is still an inside day on the SPX and a break on either side of the bar may lead to quicker buying or selling.

For what its worth, Cramer out buying everything, and more work on his Mad Money calls, oil near $98 and everyone talking of $100 maybe today, some shocking news from GM that they lost money, just wonder how much they are sitting with in bad loans.

Dreman thinks some money can be made in the financials. And one good question on metals, if gold is over $830, why is silver still only near $15.

CLOSING NUMBERS

Nice gains in the closing hour gets the SPX past the 50 day SMA at the 1,520 area with sights set on the 1,535/1,540 level and the 50% retracement between 1,576 and 1,490.

Strong sectors -metals, emerging markets, oils, insurance, banks and homies while airlines, internets, utils and biotechs lagged.

Key stocks -75% in the green led by MA GRMN MTW BG AMZN NVDA JPM XOM AAPL and MGM;

NYSE -935 net winners;

NAZ -460 net winners;

NDX - 50 WINNERS;

OEX -75 WINNERS;

IBD 100-80 WINNERS;

Big Winners- STP DRYS SDA NOV MTL PKX MA FSTR XMSR FLEX GRMN SIRI EXPD VRTX AMZN ORCL AIG BHI TXN WFC CSCO JPM;

Big Losers- C MS EP CCU COF XRX MSFT HET HNZ CYNO CRNT BIDU ININ ARD DSX WYNN PFWD;

VIX - down 12% and trading at the 10 day SMA;

Up volume more than double Down volume;

TRIN .68;

RSI (2) on major indexes:

SPX 68

OEX 68

NDX 71

RUT 62

DJIA 65

Macau stocks LVS/WYNN down again and trading like there will never be another winning day for the house. Not likely and I suspect they are at/near buy spots (scale).

Metals traded well with GOLD nearing the $830 level-

BHP +4.4%

FCX +3%

GDX +3.6%

PAAS +9%

SSRI +7%

RIO +6%

AFTERNOON TELLS

Markets haven't moved a whole lot today but they are up a bit under .5% on average with the MID's being the best of the major indexes.

Strong sectors pretty clear- metals, oils, emerging markets, China, insurance, homies and banks while airlines, utils, internets and biotechs are lagging.

Key stocks- 25 out of 40 higher led by MA GRMN BG XOM AMZN JPM MTW and NVDA-- while BIDU MS C WYNN VMW LVS MSFT DECK and GE are lower.

NYSE/NAZ internals near the flat lines;

NDX -50 GREEN;

OEX 62 GREEN;

IBD 100- 72 GREEN;

Biggest winners- STP MA FSTR DRYS SDA MTL PKX CNH BUCY BBL GLNG BOOM BHP XMSR VRTX EXPD FLEX SIRI GRMN SPLS AMZN ORCL AIG XOM JPM TWX TXN ORCL BHI CSCO;

Biggest losers- MS C COF EP CCU MSFT VZ F CYNO CRNT ININ BIDU DSX WYNN SSRX VMW HMSY ARD CTSH JAVA INFY NIHD SYMC YHOO UAUA WFMI;

VIX down 7.5% and near the 10 day SMA;

Up vol- 620m Down vol- 400m;

TRIN- .75;

C can't seem to get out of its own way and the news on MS ($6B in write down coming) not helping the financial sectors although GS is higher by $2 and CME is up about $12.

Big cap tech not doing so great today as the NDX is barely green with XLK HHH MSFT EBAY all in the red.

VMW on the IBD 20 list may be in a nice pullback area down 15 points from its high and trading with RSI (2) of 7.

SPX seems to be range bound held tight by 1,490 on the bottom and 1,513 on the top. I suspect that break from either of those number could go far with a little support on the downside at the 200 day SMA at 1,480.

THE OPEN

Markets opened higher but are now well off their best levels as the NAZ has flipped to red while the RUT/MID's continue and are down about .5%.

Strong sectors include metals, China, oils, emerging markets, insurance, banks and homies while airlines, internets, utils, reits and retail lags.

Key stocks generally higher (25 out of 40) led by MA MTW NVDA BG XOME BAC RIMM and ICE while BIDU C TIF LVS MSFT DECK WYNN GS and VMW are lower.

NYSE internals- FLAT;

NAZ internals - 412 net losers;

NDX 45 GREEN;

OEX 50 GREEN;

IBD 100-65 GREEN;

WINNERS- STP GSOL SNCR FSTR DRYS MTL PKX BBL BHP MR MA XMSR VRTX EXPD NVDA SIRI ORCL RYAAY ERIC AIG BHI NXY XOM BAC CVX CSCO AA JPM;

LOSERS- C MSFT LEH IP F BDK EP CBS VZ EXC MS CTSH JAVA NIHD INFY ATVI YHOO WFMI EXPE SYMC DSX CRNT BIDU CYNO ININ EXLS SSRX PFWD FMCN EJ;

VIX -down 5% and about 8% above the 10 day SMA's;

Ten year Bond rate down to 4.359%;

The 50 day SMA on the SPX was again overhead resistance and hopefully we won't go back to the 1,490 area. Testing that level again would not be healthy as the more times support is tested the weaker it gets.

The daily pivot point is 1,501 and the markets may bounce off those levels.

HOW NOW SPX

Futures are trading up this AM with the SPX up 6.5 and 4.5 points above fair value yielding an open near 1,507. Naz futures up 13 on the heels of the GOOG upgrade at Bernstein (new target $850).

A new SPX chart today, kind of small but click on it and it looks a whole lot better.

Anyhow, markets hit my target of 1,490 (green line) and bounced nicely off that level. What next, I suspect the 50 day SMA at 1,513 will be an initial stopping point (see Friday's top), but if we get through, the 50% retracement maybe the next stop ( 1576-1490(2)) or the 1,535 area (blue line).

If the market turns lower, next stop could be 1,480 area which is the 200 day SMA (white line) which coincides nicely with the blast off point from September 18 (first rate cut).

We also continue to see bullish divergences on the MACD Histogram, defined as prices making lower lows but MACD making higher lows.

THE CLOSE

Markets closed well off their worst levels as buyers appeared at the all important SPX 1,490 area. Not sure if that line in the sand holds tomorrow but for now it looks like pretty good support. Note also how the SPX went through the daily pivot point and quickly turned back to close under the 1,505 area at 1,502.

Strongest sectors included utils, defense, insurance, drugs and large cap growth while China, emerging markets, brokers and financials were the laggards.

NYSE 1,700 net losers;
NAZ 1,000 net losers;
NDX 25 GREEN led by IACI WFMI GOOG SIRI CSCO AMGN YHOO;
OEX 35 GREEN led by EXC ROK CSCO AVP GD BAX AES MCD EP HON;
IBD 100- 25 GREEN led by ININ BUCY CEDC VSEC PDA GOOG ARD GSOL SNCR VIVO;

VIX up by 6% and still in overbought buy territory for equities;

Down volume 3X Up volume;

TRIN- 1.00-;

Key stocks -9 green out of 40 with winners including GOOG BIDU RIMM CME NVDA MO ICE and DECK while big losers were UA C MS GS VMW GRMN LVS MTW WYNN and MER; CROX looks like toast and broken big time- plastic shoes anyone?

Tech again looks strong with winners such as BIDU GOOG HPQ INTC and RIMM- Xchanges also up with CME NDAQ NMX also closing green;

GS very ugly and closed down 11+ at $218+ after trading down to 213 when the denials hit; MS BEN BSC LEH LM MER also uber ugly on the day;

Tomorrow could be turnaround Tuesday as this a strong seasonal time for equities; no picture above as Blogger pix are down;

NOON CHECK

Markets continue to trade lower but are off their worst levels as the RUT/MID's continue to lag the big cap indexes.

Strong sectors include utils, metals, defense, insurance and internets while China, brokers, emerging markets, financials and biotech continue to lag.

Market internals continue to be weak with the NYSE at 1,850 net losers and the NAZ at 1,180 net losers.

NDX -20 WINNERS- IACI SIRI WFMI SIRI RIMM GOOG JAVA LVLT; LOSERS- RYAAY SNDK MICC CTSH INFY AMLN DISCA;

OEX -35 WINNERS- TWX GOOG GD AIG AVP CSCO ROK EXC PG CBS BUD LTD -LOSERS- MS C EMC GS EK F LEH BAC MER HD WB;

VIX - continues to trade up about 5% and still in overbought area about 15% above the 10 day SMA;

Down volume 3X Up volume;

TRIN well under 1.0 indicating that the volume is going to the gaining stocks- interesting;

Other stuff:

CROX continues to get crushed - the definition of a broken stock;

WYNN/LVS/MGM all trading down about 2/3%;

Consumers acting well with CL MCD MO PEP PG all green;

Technology also acting OK - with AKAM BRCM CSCO GOOG HPQ NVDA RIMM YHOO all green while XLK HHH AMAT AMZN EBM INTC MOT MSFT TXN are red but near the flat line;

Looks like the support number on the SPX has been 1,497, pivot point S1 support (hit twice so far) and 1,500, the nice round number. Don't know if they will hold into the close but definitely worth watching. And don't forget the old "markets that are weak all day tend to close at/near their lows."

And how long before all the bloggers ask GOOG/etc to pay in euros?

MORNING TRADE

Markets are trading lower but off their worst levels as most folks made the decision to buy the gap down.

Strong sectors include utils, insurance, defense, drugs and airlines while China, emerging markets, financials, biotechs and retail act the worst.

Key stocks mainly lower (7 up 33 down) led down by C MTW VMW LVS MS POT WYNN and GS while NVDA GOOG RIMM BIDU BAM ICE and COST are higher.

NYSE internals - 1,900 net red;

NAZ internals - 1,230 net red;

NDX -25 GREEN;

OEX -25 GREEN;

IBD 100- 15 GREEN;

Biggest WINNERS- IACI SIRI NVDA XMSR GOOG CSCO AKAM ETR AIG CSCO TWX AVP PG EXC GD AEP CBS MRK CYNO RIMM ABB LIFC VSEC and BUCY;

Biggest LOSERS- CHL EXM LFC FTK EXLS PCU DSX OII DRYS EK C EMC MS GS WB HD BDK BHI AA RYAAY SNDK INFY CTSH MICC LOGI AMLN GRMN WYNN ERTS BBBY;

VIX up 7% and near 25 and about 16% above the 10 day SMA;

Down volume about 4X Up volume;

Two day RSI for major indexes:

SPX 14

OEX 12

DJIA 17

RUT 14

NDX 34

MORE CHARTING

Some points of interest on the SPX charts in light of the morning sell off:

Recent lows on the SPX near the 1,490 area;

Blast off point from the first rate cut on Sept 18, near the 1,475 level;

The 200 day SMA near 1,480;

On the DJIA:

Recent lows near the 13,400 level which was also the Sept 18 low;

The 200 day SMA near 13,200;

On the NDX 100:

Recent lows near 2,120;

50 day SMA near 2,090;

Of course the markets could turn right around and trade higher- not that likely.

THE LATEST

Late news finds Prince resigning at C with Rubin in temporarily, Musharraf consolidating his grip in Pakistan, Hank Greenberg seeking an overhaul of management/strategy at AIG, CIBC C analyst getting death threats on the heels of her bold call, a new LLY drug shows promise for reducing heart attacks, the real accuracy of the jobs numbers, the latest on AROD who is rapidly gaining on baROID, and King Tut back on display.

In this week's issue, Barrons was bullish on AKAM RIMM AAPL CSCO AMAZN MRK GILD MDR MAT KCP and NTRS; bearish on DPTR.

Here goes with the new IBD 100 list:

1-BIDU

2-ISRG

3- RIMM

4- VMW

5- AAPL

6-POT

13- CMG

14-NOV

19-RIO

31-GOOG

34-CNH

36-FCX

42- MA

48- WYNN

57-GRMN

60-BHP

61- CAM

85-ESRX

And the charts that look good from all IBD 100-

SNCR DRYS CRNT VSEC NOV EXM FCX GSOL WYNN BTJ GRMN BHP CAM and GTI.