9.07.2007

TECH WRECK


Markets continue to trade lower but off the worst levels of the day as tech, semis, retailers and internets lead the way lower. The strongest groups include metals, some brokers and some banks.


Market internals still awful with 3600 more losers than winners on the NYSE and NAZ.


OEX and NDX both with about 9 winners- including - LOGI GILD DISCA APOL WFMI BMET PTEN XRAY DISH RTN MS GS BUD JNJ KO CL CCU C; LOSERS- DELL EK AA GM NSM LTD TGT NXY HPQ SNDK NTAP ATVI JOYG NVDA CTXS AMAT SPLS;


Checking in on stocks that are green in todays selloff- C GS MER MS NMX NYX GILD CL K KO JNJ NVS SNY Y NBR RIG SLB UA WFMI;


Very conspicuous in the sell off, BIG CAP TECH, which was supposedly a safe haven in the credit crunch- not sure how safe in a crummy economy:


AAPL -2.21%


AMAT -3.1%


HPQ -2.7%


IBM -1.3%


INFY -2.55%


INTC -2.6%


KLAC -2%


NVDA -3.5%


RIMM-2.65%


SMH -2.7%


SNDK -4.75%


TXN -2.33%


Every one waiting on the close to see how good or bad it will be- My guess- no clue.

JOBS JOBS JOBS


Markets open lower on the heels of "subpar" employment growth as the economy lost 4k jobs for the month of August and job growth for the July was also reduced.


Strongest sectors- GOLD SILVER metals, drugs and biotech while homies, brokers, retail, airlines and semis lag.


The internals are pretty dreadful with a net of 3700 losers on the NYSE and NAZ;


OEX 4 WINNERS - JNJ BUD MO MRK- LOSERS LEH AA LTD GM COF AXP IP DELL;


NDX 10 WINNERS- GILD LOGI DISH XRAY JNPR LBTYA BMET SIAL ADSK- LOSERS SHLD NVDA SNDK RIMM AAPL XLNX NTAP AKAM AMAT ALTR GRMN.


VIX ramping about 8% and about 8% above the 10 day SMA.


Levels- The SPX may find some "temporary" support at 1460, the 200 day SMA area and NDX should find some support at the 1965 level, the 50 day SMA. The 50% area also around here on the SPX- so maybe a little bounce off these levels.

Cramer declares we are in a recession 969 AM and don't forget that he also declares the DJIA will be at 14,500 before the end of the year. HE DA MAN.




9.06.2007

MOVING ON UP


Markets have turned around and are now trading higher after the SPX touched the 1467 level and very close to the 50% retracement number. The DJIA is now plus 75, NAZ +11 and SPX +6.7.


Strong sectors include metals, biotechs, utilities, oils, semis, drugs and real estate while airlines, brokers and homies lag.


Gold is very close to the important $700 level and has hit on some of the futures markets. Lower rates and lower dollar anyone?


Market internals- 800 net green on the NYSE and 545 net green on the NAZ.


OEX- 75 GREEN led by ABT EK TGT KO MRK ETR HON BUD UTX EXC WY MSFT;

LOSERS- CPB TWX SLB LTD HD ORCL SLE CSCO MO ALL BA;


NDX - 67 GREEN led by SIRI BIIB XMSR GILD CELG TLAB JOYG GENZ AMZN PDCO INFY;

LOSERS- LVLT UAUA LINTA AAPL LAMR ORCL FAST DISH COST CSCO MRVL;


DJIA - 22 WINNERS- led by KO MRK HON UTX MSFT;

LOSERS- HD MO BA AIG GM;


UP Volume now Double Down Volume.


VIX Down 3%;


Other notables:


Biotechs- higher not including AMGN- leaders- BIIB CELG GILD GENZ;


Brokers/Asset managers and Xchanges led lower by BSC ICE LM NYX TROW MER;


Gaming - led higher by WYNN LVS MGM;


Metals- screaming higher led by BHP FCX GDX GG GSS PAAS SSRI;


Oils - generally higher led by APA CAM COP DVN EPL HAL NFX PXD XTO- losers- VLO SLB PWE HP FTO;


Retail- good numbers this morning but not helping much as BBBY COST DECK GES HD KSS LTD UA all lower;


Tech- flipped to green led by AMZN BRCM EBAY INFY INTC MOT MSFT NVDA RIMM TXN;

MIXED OPEN


Markets open mixed with oils and metals leading and financials/ trannies lagging.


Strongest sectors - metals, biotech, oils, gaming and utilities while airlines, homies, brokers, trannies and real estate lag.


Market internals- a little net red on the NYSE and FLAT on the NAZ.


OEX- 40 GREEN led by TGT COP ETR WMT MMM CVX MSFT AA BHI VZ KO;

LOSERS- CPB WFC NSC GM ORCL BA UPS MS IBM GOOG RDK LTD CSC;


NDX - 50 GREEN- led by BIIB SIRI GENZ XMSR CELG GILD SEPR TLAB NVDA SIAL;

LOSERS- LVLT AAPL FAST UAUA YHOO MRVL EXPD ALTR AKAM ORCL RIMM XLNX SNDK;


VIX up another 1% and DOWN Volume beating UP VOLUME by about 50%;


Shaping up to be a tough day for Big Cap tech as AAPL BIDU GOOG IBM RIMM SNDK YHOO all red; KLAC MSFT NVDA green;


Maybe just a range bound day as internals aren't terrible while banks and brokers continue to drip lower. Retail has flipped to red after the promising open and yikes John Chambers at CSCO continues to be bullish and has reiterated guidance.


Oil trading above $77 and I will make the bold prediction of $80 before $50.


Technically, the SPX has support at 1460/1465 levels as the 200 day SMA and the 50% retracement levels loom.


9.05.2007

LOWER TRADE


Markets continue to trade down about 1% on the DJIA and down about .75% on the NAZ/NDX as the new IPOD's get pumped by AAPL.


Strong sectors include biotechs and internets while real estate, homies, reits, brokers and banks lag.


NYSE internals -1700; NAZ internals -980;


OEX - 9 WINNERS- AMGN HAL TXN BA GOOG IP BHI QBT WMB;

LOSERS- LEH ATI S LTD CSC TGT TYC AXP BAC NSC BDK NSM;


NDX- 23 WINNERS- SIRI XMSR CHKP GRMN AMGN EBAY AMZN FLEX JNPR XRAY YHOO; LOSERS- COST SHLD MICC SNDK NIHD QCOM PTEN LOGI RIMM;


DJIA 1 WINNER- BA- LOSERS AXP C HON;


Volatility indexes- down about 10% and about 5% below the 10 day SMA;


Other stuff of interest-


GREEN:


MTW CME NDAQ BBH DNA BRK.A LUK DVN NFX PXD XEC COH DECK HHH AMZN COMS EBAY TXN;


RED:


IR AIB CFC DFS MA WFC USB BSC ICE LEH MS TROW CMI HON XRT BBBY COST CROX GES KSS SHLD TGT UA SNDK RIMM CTSH AMAT;


The 2 day RSI on most of the major indexes sits at the 35/45 level and maybe another down day will yield another buying opportunity. I suspect we aren't done going down yet in the short term. Target- 1460/1465 level on the SPX - the 50% retracement and 200 day SMA levels.

THE OPEN


Markets are trading lower on the heels of crummy housing numbers and more sub prime fear. All of the major market indexes are trading down about 1% except for the tech /biotech heavy NAZ/NDX. Those indexes are only down about .75%.


Strongest sectors include biotech, internets and airlines while homies, brokers, real estate, banks and trannies lag.


Market internals are very week with 2000 net losers on the NYSE and 1200 net red on the NAZ.


OEX -3 WINNERS- AMGN AA WMB- LOSERS- LEH MS LTD BAC COF USB TYC WFC MER XRX;


NDX -20 WINNERS- CHKP GRMN AMZN BEAS NVDA YHOO SIRI JOYG LBTYA LAMR FLEX XMSR NTAP AMLN AAPL XRAY;

LOSERS- COST MICC SHLD ROST PTEN NIHD LOGI TLAB CTSH LVLT JAVA EXPE;


Volatility indexes up about 8% on the VIX and 11% on the VXO- both trading about 5% above the 10 day SMA.


No rush to buy this dip just yet as we may get some real volatility today. So for now just watching.

9.04.2007

THE CLOSE

Markets closed the day higher but again another sell off in the final 30 minutes of the day as the DJIA came off by 50, the NDX by 15 and the SPX by 7. Not sure if it was caused by the Lacker comments but doesn't really matter. My take is if we sell off, we have some pretty well defined entry points - 200 day on SPX 1460, and the 50 day on NDX - 1961. Also, hard to believe the QQQQ is only about 90 cents off the July high near 50.6.

Strong sectors included metals, brokers, internets, oils, semis and biotechs while retail, defense, banks and drugs lagged.

NYSE internals +1325, NAZ internals +880;

OEX - 80 WINNERS;

NDX - 85 WINNERS;

Today's WINNERS included YHOO VRSN AAPL SNDK PDCO AMZN NXY EK EXC SLB AXP GM MER EP VDSI DWSN TBSI GTI WBD LAYN;

LOSERS- FSTR CYNO BCSI NILE WFR TTEC MORN HD TGT AVP RTN BAX BA ABT ROST MNST LOW BBBY SHLD CTSH CMCSA CTAS COST;

I agree with Insana- rate cuts a done deal and this market is back to a buy the dip scenario. NQ/ SPX Futures probably the place to be if you want the most bang for your trading buck.

SMH also looks interesting as the 50 day SMA was resistance and probably flips to support in the short term.

MIDDAY LULL


Markets continue to trade higher with the DJIA +38, NAZ +28 and SPX +11. The 50 day SMA on the SPX a hair above at 1488 and may provide some initial resistance.


Strong sectors include tech, oils, metals, internets, semis, biotechs and airlines while retail and defense continue to lag. Nice to see the old leaders of metals and oils taking the baton and maybe resuming their leadership quality.


Market internals are green all around with about 965 net green on the NYSE and 700 net green on the NAZ.


The OEX with more than 70 winners led by NXY EP TXN EXC EK SLB COP AEP GS AMGN;

LOSERS- HD TGT AVP RTN USB ABT CMCSA ABT BA CL BAX NSC.


The NDX with about 80 gainers led by YHOO GRMN VRSN PTEN AAPL AMZN JNPR PDCO JAVA GILD and SNDK.


Volatility indexes down a tade but still trading at/near their 10 day SMA's.


Others stuff:


Ags all green led by AGU CNH DE;


Banks- mixed with AIB MA STT green and C DFS MTB USB WFC red;


Brokers - green with the exception of LM- NMX also red;


Biotechs - all green led by AMGN DNA GENZ GILD;


Metals all green led by BHP FCX GDX GLD SLV SSRI PAAS;


Oils all green led by APC CAM CNQ EPL FTO HP NFX NXY RIG SLB TSO VLO XTO;


Retail primarily red led lower by DECK HD KSS PVH TGT;


TECH primarily green led higher by HHH SMH AAPL AMZN GOOG IBM SNDK TXN YHOO- red are AKAM CTSH RIMM;


Markets look like they may ramp into the close so I plan on buying afternoon dips.




THE NDX


Markets open higher led by the NDX 100 which seems to be stair stepping straight up on the morning interval chart. The DJIA is flat, SPX+7 and NAZ +19.


Strongest sectors include metals, internets, brokers, oils and airlines with retail, defense and homies lagging.


NYSE internals +530- NAZ internals +640;


OEX- 60 WINNERS led by EXC NXY EP GS TXN CSC AES VZ LEH and SLB; LOSERS- HD BA RTN TGT DOW AA BAX HON CL NSC S;


NDX -70 WINNERS- led by GRMN YHOO SNDK NVDA EBAY AAPL BRCM AMZN JNPR VRSN and GILD- LOSERS- MNST ROST AKAM BBBY LAMR RIMM LOW ERIC S SPLS CTSH;


Volatility indexes up about 1% and trading at/near their respective 10 day SMA's.


UP volume DOUBLE DOWN volume;


Strong action in GS BSC LEH MER MS CME SMH HHH AAPL AMZN BIDU GOOG HPQ IBM MGM LVS MO XOM bodes will for a bullish day.


Markets are acting very well with the SPX sitting at resistance at/near the 1480 line. The 50 day SMA is still above at 1488 and I would look to that level as for a short term target.


The NDX broker through the 2,000 level and is only about 55 points off the recent high near 2060. I suspect it gets there before too long.


9.02.2007

AUGUST PUNCHED


Markets actually gained some ground in August after a tough July on the heels of sub prime / credit issues. Note the NDX is less than 4% off the July highs.


Some winners and losers for the year to date are as follows:


SPX +3.9%


DJIA +7.2%


OEX +4.1%


NAZ +7.5%


NDX 100 +13.2%


MID +7.3%


RUT FLAT


Small Cap Value -8.5%


Small Cap Growth +13%


Large Cap Value +2.1%


Large Cap Growth +6.8%


EFA +7.1%


EEM +17.3%


EWA +18.9%


SMH +12.6%


HHH +12.4%


AAPL +63.2%


GOOG +11.9%


XLK +12%


MSH +11.9%


OIH +28%


XLE +19.1%


VLO +33.9%


XTO +15.5%


DFX +16.2%


HGX -28.2%


XAL-20%


XBD -8.1%


GS -11.7%


MER -20.8%


BKX -9.8%


C -15.8%


BAC -5.1%


ICE +35.2%


CME +8.8%


MGM +46.4%


BAM +5.4%


HUI -3.3%


SSRI -5%


PAAS -1%


NYX -25.2% (Jim Cramer's favorite growth stock 2007)


LVLT -6.6% (Jim Cramer's favorite spec stock 2007)


MO +5.8% (Jim Cramer's favorite value stock 2007)


Question becomes can the markets continue to make headway without the financials - My guess - a little reversion to the mean as maybe we get some good news on the credit scene before to long lifting the BKX/XBD. Broker earnings around the corner- ? Tech/energy continues to outperform while homies/airlines continue their downward trajectory.