Turnaround Friday as the DJIA hit the lows at/near 11 est- and headed straight up gaining about 180 from the lows- SPX also saw lows at/near 1217 and moving up 25 points to close at 1242.
Strong sectors included banks, insurers, brokers, ags and semis while utils, shipping, trannies and telecom lagged.
NYSE- flat internals;
NAZ- 220 net losers;
NDX- 50 GREEN;
OEX- 55 GREEN;
VIX- down by almost 4% at near 23.15;
Up volume 1.5X the down with 1.2B total;
Pretty good day trading activity yesterday and today - as best I can remember- and next week- well will for Monday to figure out where we may from here.
OK - confession I bought the SSO a little early but now in the green and even some UYG which is also in the green as I type- these are day trades as swing trading probably not such a great idea from these levels.
Sector strength - airlines banks and semis while shipping steel and utils are the worst.
NYSE- 1375 net losers;
NAZ- 1000 net losers;
NDX- 35 GREEN;
OEX- 40 GREEN;
VIX- red and now under 24;
Up volume rapidly catching the down;
One question for anyone- if the market was +350 yesterday would anyone have said it was the Palin rally?
Markets are down but off their best and worst levels- DJIA -81, NAZ -14 and SPX -10. Ugly numbers on ARM Prime loans seems to have given the markets another reason to sell off- as the delinquent number is now 6.75% - but as the one and only Dennis Kneale will tell us - over 93% are still paying timely. WAHOO.
Strongest sectors- metals, airlines, defense and drugs while homies, utils, shipping, retail and ags lag.
NYSE- 1540 net losers;
NAZ- 835 net losers;
NDX- 30 GREEN;
OEX- 20 GREEN;
IBD- 12 GREEN;
VIX flat at a little above the 24 level- fear hardly as this indicator is up 1.5 points on the year while the SPX is down about 18%.
Down volume 3X the up;
Looks like the rally I anticipated was short lived and the next area of support is 1200 on the SPX - the July 15 low. For now just sitting as far as day trading - waiting-
Note the area I want to buy is the 1170 area should we get there as it is the the 50% FIB retrace between the 1575 October 2007 high and the 770 October 2002 low.
Job numbers came in almost as expected at -84,000, the problem for the traders was the 6.1% unemployment rate- and a revision of the June number to -100k from -51k.
Markets set to open way down again but trading off the worst levels of the pre market session- my take for now is this lower open will get bought- not going all in at the open - but probably before too long.
Other news- $$$$ heading lower with gold now trading +$16 at $820 and Crude near the flat line at $108 - EURO up to 1.433 after trading as low as 1.419 a short time ago- I guess the question is which economy is worse.
As is the usual case in bear markets, markets closed at the lows of the day and anyone shorting should have been able to make some decent money day trading.
Zero sectors in the green and the usual suspects being the worst performers- steel, gaming, brokers, banks, tech and homies.
Market internals- 3800 net losers on the NYSE/NAZ;
NDX/OEX with about 8 stocks closing in the green;
VIX- higher by 12% at 24.03- and 16% above the SMA 10;
OK finally any chance that the barracuda had something to do with this massive selloff- this guy thinks so.
BACK TO THE BRINK
Markets closing ugly as Bill Gross declares he is no longer going to be supporting bonds along with his friends around the world- and asked Paulson to wake up and do the right thing with FNM/FRE.
Not sure if Paulson got the call but my take- look to buy around stocks near SPX 1200 (probably with everyone else)- for the longer term as stocks are probably not going to zero.
RSI (2) levels near the close- DJIA 11,250 -8, SPX 1244-4, NAZ 2274-3, RUT 722-13;
VIX- higher by 11% at/near 23.85- and 15% above the SMA 10;
Bob Brinker mentioned here a few weeks ago- and his theory of lower oil will get us higher stocks has been crushed along with the markets of late.
Bob's theory was that high oil prices were holding stock prices down- and lower oil will get the markets moving higher- well not so much as crude hit its high on July 11 at/near $147 while the SPX closed at 1240- today oil $108 and the SPX 1240.
One fact not factored in by Brinker or most others- crude going down probably brings a higher dollar (king $$$$) and weaker exports as European and other overseas markets weaken. Bottom line- careful what you wish for- and check the semis- like INTC- which get 70% of their sales from over seas markets.
Markets continue with lower with a few blips along the way enabling some the opportunity to get short - as days like today seem to end at/near the lows.
Strong sectors- none with steel, ags, gaming, homies, metals and financials the weakest.
NYSE- 2000 net losers;
NAZ- 1625 net losers;
NDX- 9 GREEN;
VIX- higher by 9% and about 13% above the SMA 10;
Down volume about 10x the up;
Ten year bond- 3.65%;
Doug Kass at realmoney.com looking for a bottom near here saying "this is what bottoms look like" on his latest article.
My guess is we are in for a short term bounce next week which may take us back to 1290 but ultimately I see 1,170 in our future- 50% retracement of the whole move- from 770 to 1575.
Markets move rapidly through the support at the 1265 level on the SPX and the next area to look for should be 1255- the 50% retracement between 1200 and 1313.
Strongest sectors- (relative) - airlines, utils, reits and trannies while steel, ags, homies, brokers and gaming lags.
NYSE- 1850 net losers;
NAZ- 1365 net losers;
NDX- 8 GREEN;
OEX- 8 GREEN;
IBD- 10 GREEN;
VIX- higher by 5% at/near 22.55;
Down volume 7X the upside;
Looks like an ugly world wide recession is back on the front burner and this market is crushing all financials assets- Homies and financial out performance not happening today and this may be another time where the markets close at/near the lows of the day - so getting ready to short the pullups.
Markets look to open way down yet again as Sarah seems to be unable to get the right mojo working on wall street- Not sure how much is a reaction to her or just how bad the BUSH economy may be.
Anyhow, BESPOKE- on the recent action in the NDX- (safe tech from most pundits);
Technicals from TRADER MIKE with the SMA 50 and OBV;
And how does Peggy Noonan really feel about Sarah?
Intrade.com showing Sarah to be yanked at 9% with Obama and McCain at the usual 60/40- so no bounce yet for the betting pols;
Finally, Sarah the sportscaster;
THE BIG NIGHT
Markets closed near the unchanged line on the DJIA and red on the SPX/NAZ with the RUT up almost .5% and strong all day.
Strong sectors included brokers, homies, reits, banks and small caps while semis, metals, oils, tech and shipping lagged.
NYSE/NAZ flat internals;
NDX- 33 GREEN;
OEX- 40 GREEN;
WINNERS- LEH IP WB HD C NYX MER WFMI PETM GILD SHLD LINTA VAR EZPW BRKR BWLD BABY GM HD AIG;
LOSERS- INTC AA CAT HPQ MCD IBM BUCY IDSA FLS AZZ HES GHM MEE AKAM MA HAL TXN S EXC DELL JOYG MRVL FMCN ALTR LRCX BIDU;
VIX -down 2.5% at/near 21.45;
Very low volume again with up and down shares about equal;
Relative strength again in the financials and probably time to send a big thank you over to the folks who said to invest in the safe tech space- well not really.
Also note GS was down early after the down grade and closed up over $2.
RSI (2) levels at near 10 on the NAZ/NDX and 25 on the SPX and 45 on the DJIA;
For now looks as though SPX 1265 continues to be the area of support while 1300 continues as resistance.Big night for repubs and dems alike as Sarah speaks - hard to dislike her as the only things we know about her are that she has lived a sheltered life in Alaska and has a very conservative philosophy.
My guess is we will here from her tonight and she will do well- but a week from now we will start focusing on the post convention polls and the first debate which will have much more importance than anything Sarah says tonight.
Not sure if my ears aren't working of late or if the CNBC folks have given up on the question of whether the financials have bottomed. If you have not noticed- they stopped going down of late and have out performed the recently deemed safe space of tech.
Note XBD BKX AIG BAC C JPM MS CME NYX all green again while techs such as semis, MSH, XLK HHH GOOG RIMM AAPL BIDU YHOO MSFT INTC IBM all lower.
Also note one other chart of interest- the US$$$ index - the 50 SMA crossing above the 200 SMA- usually seen as pretty pretty pretty bullish for the asset class.
Back to the polls- intrade.com with Obama and McCain back at the same old same old 60/40 odds- and its all about Sarah for now. And it will all change as we await the first debate - coming up on 9/29.
Major market indexes are lower again despite good news from FNM on sale of bills and ABK also moving up on some good news.
Strongest sectors include airlines, homies, shipping, oils and small caps while semis, gaming, drugs and tech lag.
Flat internals across the board;
Most of the financials I track are higher to flat with the exception of GS which another down grade this morning.
Direction for the markets from here- no real idea but oil going lower not the help most expected- when oil hit the high on July 11- the SPX was 1240- so a 27% drop in crude prices and a 3% increase in equities- big deal.
There it was- big ugly reversal and no one can seem to figure out the reason- maybe SPX 1300 again- maybe the ongoing Sarah Palin fiasco or maybe the spike for Obama - or something else- no one seems to have it.
Anyhow, DJIA -27 after being up 250, NAZ -18 and SPX -5 - one good thing is the out performance by the financials- it was the case on Friday and again today.
Strongest sectors- airlines, retail, banks, homies and insurance while metals, oils, ags, shipping and utils lagged.
NYSE- 275 net winners;
NAZ- 70 net losers;
NDX- 50 GREEN;
OEX- 60 GREEN;
VIX- higher by 6.5% at 22;
Up and down volume about equal and light overall at 1.15B;
SPX hit its head at 1300 and moved down rapidly through the day to the 1275 level- and here we go between the recent highs at 1315 and the lows at 1250- so I guess most are looking for a break in one direction or the other but for now- its playing in between.
Markets are still higher but well off their best levels- with airlines, retail, banks, gaming and telecom acting best while metals, oils, ags and shipping lag.
NYSE- 940 net winners;
NAZ- 580 net winners;
NDX/OEX 80 GREEN on each;
WINNERS- RF WB HD BAC F DD TGT UAUA RYAAY SBUX VMED SPLS LEAP BBBY URBN BWLD DXPE ARO AXYS ICLR;
LOSERS- ACI BUCY MEE HP NGS ARD CF GMXR TESO STLD FWLT JOYG GILD HOLX AKAM DELL WMB EP BHI COP AA SLB;
VIX- higher by 1.65% at/near 21;
Up volume not quite double down volume;
Value whooping up on growth with the RUT/MID way under performing the SPX/DJIA-
Note the SPX hit its head again at the 1300 level and for the first time in a while it feels like the markets will not end they day at the highs- just a feeling as the trend for the day is clearly down from the early highs.
One further note- the EURUSD seems to be carrying the markets - so just keep it on the radar as the market looks to go with the direction of the dollar.
Markets ripping higher this morning on the heels of higher $$$$, lower commodities and an Obama bounce in the polls.
NYSE- 1450 net winners;
NAZ- 1115 net winners;
Strongest sectors include airlines, retail, gaming, homies, banks, telecom and trannies while metals, oil, ags and shipping are lagging.
VIX- flat at 20.7;
TRIN- 1.22 with up volume 2.5X the down;
Financials losing a bit of their luster but the money day trade for weeks has been to buy daily fades and hold for the close as the markets have closed at their highs or lows just about every day for weeks.
No new Palin updates except intrade now has the betting at about 12% that she gets yanked from the ticket- Obama at 61+ and McCain now dipping (buy) to the mid 38's.
Markets closed tomorrow but oil markets opening this afternoon so someone can trade the oil markets and help the CME make some money as others may suffer.
And how about that GOP keeping Dubya and Cheney away from the Minn. Why wouldn't anyone want Cheney to go?
Speaking of suffering- check the returns on various indexes/widely held stocks for the first 8 months of 2008:
SMALL GROWTH -1.7%
SMALL VALUE -8.4%
LARGE GROWTH -10.5%
LARGE VALUE -14.9%
Also some interesting ytd numbers on some pretty pretty well known mutual funds:
CMGFX -11.43%; (Heebner)
DODGX -14.5%; (Dodge Cox)
FAIRX - FLAT; (Berkowitz)
FLVCX -5.78; (fido leveraged)
LLPFX -12.2%; (Longleaf's Hawkins)
LMVTX -28.29%; (Legg's Bill Miller)
MXXIX - 17.2%; (Marsico)
OAKBX - FLAT; (Oakmark Balanced)
OAKLX -9.03%; (Nygren)
PRWCX -1.1%; (TR Price Cap Ap)
TAVFX -15.67% (Third Ave Whitman)
WGRNX -13.3% (Wintergreen)
WWNPX -23.88% (Kinetics)