Markets closing ugly as Bill Gross declares he is no longer going to be supporting bonds along with his friends around the world- and asked Paulson to wake up and do the right thing with FNM/FRE.

Not sure if Paulson got the call but my take- look to buy around stocks near SPX 1200 (probably with everyone else)- for the longer term as stocks are probably not going to zero.

RSI (2) levels near the close- DJIA 11,250 -8, SPX 1244-4, NAZ 2274-3, RUT 722-13;

VIX- higher by 11% at/near 23.85- and 15% above the SMA 10;

Bob Brinker mentioned here a few weeks ago- and his theory of lower oil will get us higher stocks has been crushed along with the markets of late.

Bob's theory was that high oil prices were holding stock prices down- and lower oil will get the markets moving higher- well not so much as crude hit its high on July 11 at/near $147 while the SPX closed at 1240- today oil $108 and the SPX 1240.

One fact not factored in by Brinker or most others- crude going down probably brings a higher dollar (king $$$$) and weaker exports as European and other overseas markets weaken. Bottom line- careful what you wish for- and check the semis- like INTC- which get 70% of their sales from over seas markets.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

dave, why you would say you want to buy spx near 1200 when you think spx would go to 1170? or you concider 1170 is 'near' 1200?

3:45 PM  
Blogger DAVID said...

its close- lets get there first and then see what gives

3:52 PM  
Blogger tamworth said...

I agree, David...fwiw. And, yes, Brinker waas wrong yet again..this time about his thoughts on oil and equity correlation.

You do have a good intuitive sense about the market, David... ;

4:26 PM  
Blogger DAVID said...

Thanks TW I appreciate that.

4:36 PM  

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