4.25.2008

THE CLOSE


Markets opened higher, moved lower and closed near the best levels of the day as again it got off the floor and shrugged off the underwhelming earnings news from last night. The DJIA closed +45, NAZ -5 and SPX +9.


Strongest sectors- ags, brokers, retail, banks, steel and energy while tech, semis and biotech lagged.


NYSE- 730 net winners;

NAZ- 360 net winners;

NDX- 48 GREEN;

OEX- 60 GREEN;

IBD- 80 GREEN;


VIX- down 2.5% to 19.5;

Crude- $118.5;

Gold -$887;


Light volume with up volume more than 2X down;


RSI (2) levels:


SPX -90

DJIA -88

NAZ -68

NDX -64

RUT 84

MID-91


Markets looking good as we are back at/near the 1400 level with solid support near at 1385. A move higher next week is probably in the cards but if it pulls back- I will be buying. And keep one eye on the brokers which act very very well- in fact they may have seen their bottom for 2008.

THE OPEN


Markets are trading lower led down by the NAZ/NDX and semis, internets and tech on the heels of the MSFT earnings.


Strongest sectors- brokers, retail, drugs, trannies and utils while tech, oils service, small caps and real estate lags.


Key stocks- mainly lower with DECK BIDU V TIF MON C GE green and MSFT RIMM INTC BG KO WYNN NVDA and PM lower.


NYSE- flat internals;

NAZ- 280 net losers;

NDX -40 GREEN;

OEX- 60 GREEN;

IBD 100- 60 GREEN;


Seems to be setting up as a choppy day with opportunities from all sides of the markets. Dennis Gartman in his letter this morning says " We are turning bullish of stocks generally and we wish this morning to buy the SP future, the NAZDAQ, the DOW, or the RUSSELL."


Dennis was a big commodity bull but has sold all his gold holdings of late and now appears to be very bullish on equities. I agree.


PRE MARKETS


I get knocked down but I get up again- that seems to be the way the market has reacted to less than stellar news from GE AAPL MSFT AMZN etc. It falls back initially on the news and then dusts itself off and goes higher.


Today, the dollar will again be key to the markets for lower commodities are what the markets are looking for now.


As I type, DJIA futures +61, SPX +7.25 and NQ +7.5 while crude is up a bit at $116.625 and gold down a bit at $887.


Another take on GS;


A Minyan's take on Gold;


The Quant with his take on the yesterday's IBD 100 meltdown;


Trader Mike's technical recap;




4.24.2008

THE BOTTOM


Markets closed higher but well off their best levels led by financials and tech. The SPX peaked near 1398 and hit its head their and falling 10 points off that high.


Strongest sectors- airlines, brokers, banks, homies, real estate and trannies while metals, ags, steel energy and biotechs lagged.


NYSE- 787 net winners;

NAZ- 800 net winners;

NDX - 67 GREEN;

OEX- 72 GREEN;

IBD 100-27 GREEN;


VIX- down 1.5% at 19.97 after hitting a low near 19.2;


Up volume about 2X down at a heavier than recent 1.4B shares traded;


Markets continue to fall in the after markets as I type on a flow of earnings news. RSI (2) levels on major indexes at/near 80 while the energy ETF's at/near 10 and may be buyable for quick flip.


The financials were strong all day and is the bottom in- well GS hit a low of 140 a little over a month ago and is now about 48 points higher so I will officially call the bottom - although some may wait for 195/200 level, the 50% retracement area and the 200 SMA- also a bit over bought here with a RSI (2) reading near 96. Brokers look to be strong buys on pullbacks.

RSI (2) UPDATE


In light of the crushing in the oil/ag/commodity/ sector - thought it would be good to update the RSI (2) levels for some of the stocks /etf's:


DBA 17

DBC 14

GLD 2

SLV 8

HUI 2

USO 32

UNG 86

XLE 12

OIH 14

XTO 10

CNQ 13


SPX 47

DJIA 63

NAZ 70

NDX 66

RUT/MID 37


GS 93

IAI 83

BKX 80

MS 96



GS/SSO looking pretty pretty good as I type- and maybe nibbling on some OIH/DIG before the day is over. I agree with Cramer "buy the dip."


OPENING WACKY


Markets are a bit wacky this morning with all the recent winners in the ag/commodity sectors getting murdered and the financials/ airlines moving on up.


Strongest sectors- banks, brokers, airlines, real estate and defense while ags, metals, energy and biotech are the laggards.


Key stocks- 14/40 lower with KLAC MER C MS ICE MTW BAC UA GS higher and POT AMZN MON BG LVS WYNN XOM ISRG CELG lower.


NYSE- 700 net losers;

NAZ- 685 net losers;

NDX - 21 GREEN;

OEX-50 GREEN;

IBD 100- 7 GREEN;


VIX +1.5%;


Gold- down 13.5 at 895;

Crude- 116.85;

10 year Note- 3.81%;

USD up about 1%;

EURO- 1.57 and sinking;


Up volume a bit less than down;
Question for many folks now- is this ag dip or a buy or the end of the move? My guess until proven otherwise its a buy the dip despite the recent strength in the dollar.

Markets trying to make it back to the flat line on the heels of strength in the financials- with GS up almost $3 and looking like it may be heading back to double par if it can get past $186.

In addition to long GS, bought some SSO on this dip on the housing data.

4.23.2008

CLOSING BLAHS


Markets closed higher with the NAZ/NDX outperforming yet again and with the dips and rips most nimble traders could have money on both sides of the trade.


Strongest sectors- China, telecom, tech, defense, semis, reits and drugs while metals, homies, airlines, insurance and ags lagged.


NYSE- 170 net winners;

NAZ- 215 net winners;

NDX- 75 GREEN;

OEX- 52 GREEN;


VIX- down 2.5% and trading about 5.5% below the SMA 10;


Heavier volume today with about an equal amount of up and down;


TRIN -1.23;


In the after markets- AMZN trading near the unchanged line as I type after initially trading way lower on the earnings news.


SPX still under resistance and churning for now - wouldn't be surprised if we can shoot past 1400 next week on more "decent" earnings news.

And how long for CNBC to comprehend that Dennis Kneale offers nothing to viewer that is useful?

AFTERNOON SWOON


Markets are back to mixed on the day with the NAZ/NDX continuing to out perform the other major indexes. The reason for the sell off apparently the ABK fiasco as the stock is off 40% and the secondary buyers from a month or so ago are way under water.


Strong sectors- telecom, defense, semis, reits, tech and drugs while metals, homies, ags, airlines and banks lag.


NYSE/NAZ -flat internals;

NDX - 70 GREEN;

OEX-50 GREEN;


VIX- down 1% and about 6% below the SMA 10;


Down volume a bit more than up;


TRIN- 1.19;


Nat Gas +1.8%;

Gold -$909;

Crude- $118+;


Markets seem to have hit a wall near SPX 1390 and until that number gets pierced- when/if - we have to assume its a sell the rally number.


NDX looks good for now and the internals "telling" that another rally this afternoon in that index seems likely.

OPENING LOOK


Markets open flattish with the NAZ/NDX higher and the RUT/MDY lower.


Strongest sectors- brokers, defense, biotech, telecom, tech and semis while metals, homies, airlines and energy lag.


Key stocks- 23/40 green led by PM AAPL NVDA KLAC CELG V MSFT BIDU WYNN AMGN- lower- MTW POT UA MON MGM RIMM DECK C MER;


NYSE- 400 net losers;

NAZ- FLAT;

NDX-62 GREEN;

OEX- 45 GREEN;

IBD 100- 28 GREEN;


VIX- FLAT;


Down volume a bit more than up;


TRIN 1.19;


Gold gettin smoked down about $23 while oil is down $1 with the inventory news due shortly. My guess - if its a bearish report- buy the dips- If its a bullish report- buy the dips.


RSI (2) levels:


SPX 35

DJIA 35

NAZ 55

RUT 18

MID 23


4.22.2008

THE WRAP UP


Markets closed down but well off the lows of the day and actually bullish action in the last 30 minutes as it seemed like dippers wanted to buy some discounted merchandise. The DJIA closed lower by 100, NAZ -31 and SPX -11.7.

Strongest sectors- gaming, gold, high yield and telecom while ailrines, semis, retail, homies and small caps lagged.

NYSE- 1350 net losers;
NAZ- 1470 net losers;
NDX- 18 GREEN;
OEX-20 GREEN;
IBD 18 GREEN;

VIX- up a smidge into the close +2.3%;

Down volume 3X up with more total volume than the past few days;

TRIN- 1.06- note the TRIN has been under 1.0 for the last 5 days prior to today and definitely in over sold territory- check this article for a TRIN trading method;

GOLD- Flat at $918;

Crude- $119;

EURO- just about 1.6;

10 year Note- 3.72%;

How bout those airlines- XAL down 12.3% and it seems like the index is heading straight to zero - check the longer term chart of that group - ouch- and if you think it is $118 crude that is causing the pain, they were losing their shirts when oil was $10 a barrel.

The general market activity in the last hour hints to me that this market wants to go higher and if oil can pull back a bit we may have a huge rally. Till then I would continue to wait for over sold signals before committing more longer term capital.


And a big rally in the after markets as I type- hmmm-;


Investing in Canada;


Signs of a/the bottom?

THE OPENING



Markets open weak with the DJIA down 75, NAZ -2 and SPX -10.





Strong sectors include gaming, gold, telecom and high yields while semis, airlines, homies, and oil service lag.





Key stocks- 10/40 green led by LVS WYNN MGM GOOG POT V and UA while CME ISRG KLAC SMH RIMM TIF DECK and ICE lag.





NYSE- 1440 net losers;


NAZ- 1175 net losers;


NDX -18 GREEN;


OEX- 15 GREEN;





VIX- higher by 2.5% and a crummy 3% below the SMA 10;





Down Volume 3X up;





TRIN .96;





Gold- +4 at 921;





Crude- 117;





EURO- 1.594;



Interesting how Gartman is now selling his gold and corn and probably is giving up totally on the commodity trade for now. What is he long - EQUITIES.


Markets are lower but my guess is there are lots of folks who want to buy this dip as most traders/technicians etc see higher prices in the near future as money rotates out of bonds and heads for equities. Keep on eye on GS as the stock refuses to go down of late- a pretty pretty good sign for the da bulls.

4.21.2008

AFTERNOON LOOK


Markets had a bit of a run before falling off a few moments ago- the leader, NDX- currently the DJIA -72, NAZ -6 and SPX -7.5.


Strongest sectors- semis, steel, energy, telecom and large cap growth while airlines, banks, metals, gaming and internets lag.


NYSE- 870 net losers;

NAZ -645 net losers;

NDX- 37 GREEN;

OEX- 27 GREEN;


VIX- higher by 3.3%;


Down volume about 2x Up volume;


GOLD- 917;

CRUDE- 116;

EURO- 159;


VIX+MORE with a take on the recent rally;


BESPOKE on Bonds;


24/7 getting SIRI;


Barron's on KMB;


Bill on the Bottom;



Markets fell off the table a few moments ago but another move higher by the NDX seems like a good trade before the close- Green tech includes SMH AAPL BIDU MSFT RIMM.

THE OPEN


Markets open lower with the DJIA down 68, NAZ -8 and SPX -7.


Strongest sectors- steel, oils, ags and semis while banks, financials, homies, airlines and brokers lag.


Key stocks - 15/40 GREEN led by POT AAPL UA NVDA MSFT BIDU and V while ISRG C MER BAC DECK LVS CAT and MS lag.


NYSE- 785 net losers;

NAZ- 560 net losers;

NDX- 25 GREEN;

OEX- 20 GREEN;

IBD 55 GREEN;


VIX- higher by 2.5% after spiking 5% earlier;


Down volume 2x the Up;


Feels to me like the markets want to go higher despite the crummy action in the financials on the heels of the BAC/NCC news. NQ probably the place for today as there are no finanicals and SMH AAPL BIDU MSFT RIMM YHOO are all green as I type.


GS also looks like it wants to go higher despite the steep resistance at 180 or so- the 38.2 FIB retracement and the 90 SMA at 185.

Pre Markets


Pre open futures are gappin lower this morning with the SPX set to open about 6 below Friday's close, NDX- 8 below and the DJIA about 60 below.


Gapping up- MRK NVS GSX QGEN SGP CNB USB BAC;

Gapping down- TMA ING MF SHLD RBS CAT and WM;


Crude $116.65;

Gold $926;

EURO- 1.59+;


Dennis Gartman selling his gold longs this morning thinking the action isn't very bullish of late.


Todd at Schaeffers discusses the VIX and the SPX- and why we may be at an important juncture;


A bull on Ags;


Hulbert on the Wall of Skepticism;


Another bull on FAIRX/WGRNX;


The RSI (2) refresher;


The latest earnings estimates from S&P- 2007 eps $82.54, 2008 eps $93.62 and 2009 @$113.3;