Markets open flat as a deal (COMS) is back on the board and that should help the markets in the short run (probably not today).
Strong sectors include metals, semis, oil service, retail, biotech and defense while drugs, gaming(WYNN), banks, airlines and reits lag as does value and small caps.
NYSE internals -250
NAZ internals -460
NDX 50 WINNERS;
OEX 35 WINNERS;
IBD 100 55 WINNERS;
Key stocks GREEN- BG CELG CME COST CROX IBB IBM MO POT XOM;
Key stocks RED AAPL AMZN BAC BIDU C GE GOOG GS ICE JPM MGM MS MER NYX RIMM WFC;
Big winners- TGT AVP AEP SLB GD CAT BHI ALL AMGN WMB LOGI ESRX AKAM MICC SHLD INTU FAST WFMI COST LRCX SNHY CRNT GPOR SCHN OII OMCL EDU PCLN CLB PRFT;
Big Losers- JRJC ACM MHJ VSEC HURC CPLA SYNA CTV ESI AFSI MBT SNDA DELL MRK MS DOW RF F LTD ATI BNI ATI JPM WY T SLE WYNN RYAAY NTAP FLEX RIMM SBUX GENZ APOL;
VIX flattish and still way oversold;
UP /DOWN VOLUME about equal;
Markets are selling off as I type and I expect that will continue into next week.
Dick Arms of realmoney.com and the developer of the ARMS INDEX/TRIN with some interesting thoughts this morning and I am in agreement:
"The narrow trading range since the post-Fed rally more than a week ago is still with us. Thursday makes the seventh session in which the various averages have traded within very tight limits.
The formation has had a slight upward bias, as can be seen in the chart of the Dow Industrials, but it is being stopped by the all-time highs set in late July. If we look at the S&P 500, we see that the July high is also the high set in the year 2000. The markets are butting up against very difficult resistance.
The VIX, the volatility index, which measures the level of complacency in the marketplace, has moved back to levels that reflect the most complacency we've seen since July, when the market was at its highs. Also, the Arms Index moving averages continue to be overbought, as they have been all week.
These two factors point to a pullback rather than a further rise out of this narrow congestion. It looks as though it would be very difficult to have a breakout to new highs under these conditions."
I agree that an initial move to the old highs will get sold as many an investor/trader would probably want to book the profits. However, I think they will want to get back in when they see the earnings/economy aren't as bad as expected.
Markets closed the day higher led by Mids and Small Caps. DJIA +.25%, NAZ +.4%, SPX +.4%, MIDS +.83% and RUT+.6%.
Strongest sectors were oil service, homies, emerging markets, oil, metals, brokers, real estate and gaming while utils, retail, biotech and airlines were the worst groups.
NAZ internals +500
OEX /NDX 60 GREEN;
VIX down by 3.5% and trading more than 15% under the 10 day SMA;
Key stocks/etf's in the Green- AAPL BAC BAM BIDU C CME COST CROX GE GS IBB IBM ICE JPM MO MS NYX RIMM SMH WFC XOM;
Key stocks/etf's in the Red- AMZN CELG GOOG MGM MER XLK INTC MSFT YHOO;
Big Winners- MS NXY SLB WY LEH COF AVP WMB AA CPB DISH WYNN RYAAY DISCA MXIM GRMN LINTA JNPR INFY LAMR ACM SNHY DRYS GPOR EXM MTL RIO WHQ SID MA;
Big Losers- WNR GME GMCR VSEC STP CPLA PKX AFSI CTRP TKC VSEA F GM TYC EXC CSC CMCSA MCD TGT DIS HD MRK DELL AKAM PAYX CTAS SBUX XMSR MRVL BBBY BIIB PETM;
Funny how yesterday bubblevisionites was so excited about the great news out of GM and BSC. Today Maria is wondering who put out the report on BSC and how bad it was since the stock is down today- huh. And yikes GM trades down 3% after all of yesterday's excitement. Quintessential traders at CNBC.
Anyhow, the math:
Two day RSI's on key indexes:
So pretty over bought numbers on the major indexes and when you lump them in with way oversold VOL indexes market probably has a hard time making any upward move over the next few days. No mark ups tomorrow as it is illegal and next week should be interesting as I await the big pullback (big overhead resistance between 1540/1550 on SPX) before the next leg up.
A sleepy day on wall street as the both the bulls and bears are taking a rest. The DJIA+6, NAZ+8 and SPX +3. The MIDS remain the place of the day up .5%.
Strongest sectors, gaming (WYNN/LVS soaring again), oil service, metals, semis, emerging markets, real estate and brokers while utils, retail, airlines, biotech and internets lag.
NAZ internals +300;
OEX 60 WINNERS;
NDX 65 WINNERS;
IBD 100- 64 WINNERS;
Key stocks Green- AAPL AMZN BIDU C CME COST GE GS IBB IBM ICE MGM MS NYX RIMM WFC XOM;
Key stocks Red- BAC BAM CROX GOOG JPM MO MER;
Big Gainers- JRJC SNHY MTL ACM DRYS MTW SID TEX MS LEH SLB TXN NXY AA ALL AVP ATI COF DISH WYNN JOYG SNDK BEAS NIHD ERIC NTAP DISCA SIRI LAMR;
Big Losers- SBUX PAYX AKAM BIIB YHOO LOW SYMC GENZ LRCX ADSK EXC TYC CSC MRK GM F TGT DIS BUD MCD ETR GME WNR FTK VSEC GMCR STP PKX CRNT TNE VSEA TKC;
VIX Flat and about 15% below the 10 day SMA;
Once again I am expecting a pull back which I want to buy and I expect a nice run by the bulls into the end of the year. Not much else to say but hoping to see that picture again this weekend.
Markets are trading flat with slight outperformance in the Midcap sector. DJIA +1, NAZ +3 and SPX +1.
Strong sectors include metals, oils, semis, real estate, tech and small cap growth while utils, brokers, gaming, biotechs and trannies lag.
Key Green stocks include AAPL AMZN BAM BIDU C COST GOOG GS IBB IBM MS NYX RIMM XOM;
Key Red stocks include BAC C CELG CME CROX GE ICE JPM MGM MO MER WFC;
NYSE internals +800;
NAZ interals +125;
OEX 60 GREEN
NDX 60 GREEN
IBD 100- 60 GREEN
Biggest Winners- JRJC DWSN CMED MTW WHQ LFC GPOR ACM BIDU SNDA NXY COF SLB CPB AVP WMB WY MS WMB TXN DD DISCA INFY SNDK JOYG FAST BEAS RYAAY LOGI TLAB JNPR;
Biggest Losers- SBUX BIIB PAYX WFMI ADSK AKAM CELG VMED BBBY LBTYA GM TYC MER MCD F JPM TGT EXC CI MRK WFC HIG GME MHJ CRNT STP CRNT WNR PRFT CPLA PKX SNHY AFSI CTRP;
VIX down 1% and still about 16% below its 10 day SMA;
Market thought- still expecting a pull back to at least the 1500 level on the SPX and maybe a tad below over the next 7 days and that will probably be a good buying opportunity as I expect the markets to do very well over the last 2.5 months of the year. And I feel just awful for all those Mets fans- what an implosion.
Markets closed the day up with the DJIA +99, NAZ +15.5 and SPX +8. The RUT/MIDS were also up about .75%.
Strongest sectors included brokers (BSC BRK rumors fueled by NY TIMES), airlines, biotechs, real estate, gaming, utils and defense while metals, homies, oil service and semis lagged.
NYSE internals +1000;
NAZ internals +560;
OEX 80 GREEN;
NDX 60 GREEN;
IBD 100-60 GREEN;
WINNERS- XMSR WFMI IACI SIRI MRVL LVLT AMGN UAUA MICC GM F AVP AA CI XRX ROK MS LEH JRJC ACM TKC CNH VIVO ARGN HDNG FLIR MBT GPOR;
LOSERS- ALTR XLNX LRCX PAYX GRMN AMAT MNST VRSN PTEN DISH SLB BAX USB NXY MER ORCL BHI BA ABT EXM MHJ BIDU DWSN SNDA NILE BCSI DRYS CTV;
Up volume more than double Down volume;
VIX down 5% and close to 20% below the 10 day SMA - and markets rarely make big moves from these volatility levels;
Not sure if the markets would have closed up 100 if the BSC/BRK.A rumors didn't hit the tape in the middle of the afternoon as the market felt like it wanted to go lower.
Overhead resistance seems to be near at DJIA 14000 NDX 2100 and SPX 1535 so it may be worth taking some off on another ramp. I suspect lots of folks want to short near the old DJIA highs.
Markets continue higher and near their best levels of the day although the financials seem to have flipped to green on the heels of some speculation in BSC.
Strong sectors include brokers, biotech, airlines, utils, defense and consumers while metals, oil service and homies lag.
NYSE internals +1050
NAZ internals +800
OEX internals 80/20
NDX internals 70/30
IBD 100 60/40
JRJC ACM VIVO FLIR CNH ARGN GPOR SYNA CMED CRNT GM F AVP CI AA MS AMGN XRX NSC XMSR WFMI SIRI MRVL SNDK IACI ISRG;
VRSN PTEN GRMN MNST XLNX JAVA JNPR ALTR EXM MHJ DWSN BIDU SLB NILE SI GLNG BHP GRMN LAYN;
The RUT/MID's continue to lead the way (today) and the other Shark has a few interesting thoughts about that in a recent realmoney.com article:
"An interesting development today is that small-caps are outperforming after lagging
consistently for a while. The Nasdaq 100, which has been the leader lately, is still doing well, but a number of its key components are lagging.
Is this a broadening out of the speculation that I have been talking about? It sure looks like it at the moment. I suspect that there are plenty of folks who, like me, are underinvested and are inclined to try to play the momentum game to produce some performance while they can.
These folks aren't necessarily bulls. They are opportunists who are simply trying to capitalize on the action. That is the way I feel right now. The strength seems very illogical to me, but I might as well try to take advantage of it while it lasts. I'll worry about the rationality of the market only after I can no longer find good trades on the long side.
One thing you learn about the market is that you are better off not arguing with it. You might not think it's doing the right thing, but you aren't going to win that debate, no matter how good your logic may be. "
The point, forget what you may think about the whys and wherefore's and just try to make money. Today may not be a great day to buy the NDX/tech but buying the next pullback probably makes some dough before too long. And oils may interesting today as we have pullbacks in:
OIH SLB NBR RIG TSO DO etc;
I highly doubt the bull market in oil is over just because crude is dipping under $80. I suspect OIH in the mid 180's will be a nice play to dip in and a target near the $200 level also looks pretty sound.
Markets opened higher but low and behold the leading major market index as I type, the RUT followed by the MID's. Some interesting action in the over bought tech sector as AAPL AMZN EBAY GOOG HPQ KLAC HHH BIDU all lower. In the financials, XLF BAC C JPM MA USB WFC BEN LEH MER MS TROW NYX also all red.
Best sectors- defense, biotech, small caps, oils, airlines, semis and brokers;
UP Volume- about double down on the NYSE;
OEX 75 GREEN;
NDX 65 GREEN;
IBD 100- 72 GREEN;
WINNERS- JRJC MHJ CMJ VOVP ARGM C,ED TLC CRMT TDG MRVL RIMM XMSR MICC WFMI DISCA SNDK SIRI IACI GM F AVP CI AA WMB ATI CMCSA CSCO HIG;
LOSERS- USB MER GOOG LEH COF CAT WFC HD ORCL SLB DELL DOW BIDU EXM MA GRMN LAYN VSEA VSEC PCLN BHP DRYS FSTR VRSN JNPR MNST LINTA SEPR AMZN ERIC XLNX;
VIX down another 4% and near 20% below the 10 day SMA;
Markets seem to be a bit extended at these levels but taking a closer look at several major indexes and the internals tells a bit different story. Overbought, yes NDX/COMPQ/TECH quite overbought - RUT/IWM/VALUE/SPX hardly. Even yesterday with the NDX up 19+, market internals were solidly red on both the NYSE and the NAZ.
Check the NDX chart vs. the RUT, the RUT is still about 6% off its July high while the NDX is well above its number. SPX, about 2.5% below the July high and Value has been getting its clock cleaned by Growth. Check these 2 day RSI numbers- Reversion to the mean?
Small Growth -53
In other news, JEFF has raised estimated this AM on MGM and increased its target to $118 from $115. MGM also due to play catch up to LVS/WYNN which have been on a tear of late.
Just a follow up on HHH, four stocks make up 88% of the HLDR, EBAY 29%, AMZN 26%, YHOO 21% and TWX 12%. For the year AMZN is +237%, EBAY +30%, YHOO +4% and TWX down 17%.
I suspect AMZN is going to $100 as most stocks a few points under tend to get pulled to par and if TWX/YHOO get anything at all, HHH could hit $70 before year end.
PAINT DRYING END
Not much to say about today's trading session except it was extremely boring. The NAZ/NDX/TECH was strong while everything else was ho hum.
Strongest sectors- airlines, internets, defense, trannies, tech, gaming, semis and large cap growth- laggards- retail, real estate, homies, reits, oils, brokers and metals.
NYSE internals- 550 net losers- NAZ internals 300 net losers;
OEX 50 WINNERS;
NDX 70 WINNERS;
IBD 100- 55 WINNERS;
WINNERS- MHJ NVT JRJC EDU EXM CRNT TDG AFSI CTRP AFSI SNDA GD CSC HIG CPB NSC BA DISH EXPE GRMN CTSH ADSK YHOO AAPL CHKP MICC ADBE;
LOSERS- LOW BBBY SPLS SHLD CELG PCAR MXIM PETM LAMR LVLT NTAP TGT CVX HD MER RF CAT WMT COP WNR FTK ARD AIRM PRFT GMCR STP VIP ATW LWAY;
VIX down 4% and trading 15% below the 10 day SMA- usually not a great time to buy;
QQQQ over 51 and a bit extended with a 2 day RSI of 97- a confluence of sell signals with this and the VIX;
Also check the HHH which was a dog for the longest time- now up 24% for the year;
An uneventful day to say the least so far as the NDX/COMPQ is higher while the SPX/DJIA is slightly lower and the RUT/MID's are bringing up the rear down close to 3/4%.
Acting well are airlines, internets, tech, defense and trannies while retail, real estate, homies, oils, reits, oil service and brokers.
NYSE internals- 950 net losers;
NAZ internals-600 net losers;
NDX 55 WINNERS;
OEX 50 WINNERS;
IBD 100- 40 WINNERS;
WINNERS- MHJ JRJC NVT TDG CTRP EXM CF SNDA DRYS POT CSC GD EMC CSCO MRK CL ABT BA HIG FDX HPQ DISH EXPE YHOO GRMN ATVI UAUA CTSH CHKP GILD ADSK;
LOSERS- LOW BBBY PCAR SPLS SHLD MXIM CELG LAMR PETM LVLT ROST TGT LTD HD CVX COF MER LEH COP HAL WMT CAT FTK VSEC ARD WNR GPOR GMCR DWSN TKC AIRM ARGN;
One of the more boring days on the street and I don't see much to report as the NDX continues with tech as the out performers. What looks interesting to buy:
LVS/WYNN (should they ever come in)
And how bout SHLD, it used to be that it didn't matter that the SSS or profits were crummy, you are investing with one of the best, Eddie Lampert, and owned all that great real estate, well I guess the fundies have finally caught up with the hype and the stock goes down about every day. I could never understand the attraction but it was a great stock for a long time regardless of the lousy business.
Tech seems a bit over done here as the MSH has a 2 day RSI of 97 with AAPL at 98, AMZN 99, MOT 99, MSFT 92 RIMM 92 and XLK at 89.
More lousy numbers on the econ front as the retail/consumer seems to be having his/her problems as TGT LOW and the homies spit the bit. Funny as the NAZ/NDX is higher yet again with AAPL MSFT HPQ IBM KLAC RIMM TXN YHOO CSCO RIMM SNDK all green.
Banks are terrible yet again as BAC JPM C MI MTB WB WFC are all lower;
Brokers/Xchanges a mixed bag with BSC GS ICE NDAQ green while BEN BX CME LEH LM MER MS NMX NYX all lower;
Defense in the green as the ITA is higher by .73%;
Gaming green yet again as MGM plays catch up to WYNN/LVS (long way to go) higher by 4%;
Oils lower with the exception of TSO which is being added to SPX;
Retail/Real Estate - lower with few exceptions;
NYSE internals- 1,050 more losers than winners;
NAZ internals- 630 net losers;
OEX- 40 WINNERS- CSC GD ABT CL AEP MSFT CSCO MRK BA KO NSC- LOSERS-TGT HD LTD WY WMT CMCSA COP HAL MS LEH COF MCD CAT;
NDX- 55 WINNERS- EXPE DISH GRMN UAUA MICC CHKP GILD IACI RIMM- LOSERS-LOW MXIM BBBY PCAR SPLS SHLD CMCSA PETM LVLT ROST CELG COST;
IBD 100- 40 WINNERS-MHJ JRJC NVT SNDA TDG CF POT CRNT GRMN LFC- LOSERS-FTK ARD DWSN TKC GPOR AIRM VSEC LAYN ARGN WNR OII;
VIX FLAT- still way under the 10 day SMA and in sell territory;
Markets closed the day at/near their lows after opening strong on the heels of strong action in the tech space. The fly in the ointment all day was the financials with big banks/brokers BAC C JPM MTB WB WFC BSC LEH MS all closing solidly lower. GS/ICE/NYX the strong links in a weak sector. Bottom line, tough to get much traction in the big indexes without the big banks/brokers who claim a large part of the market cap.
Strong sectors included reits, gaming, biotechs, utils, tech and large growth while airlines, homies, brokers and banks lagged. And check the action in LVS/WYNN. Winters at WGRNX must know something as he has been a big buyer claiming its cheap and liking a business that is making money 24/7.
NYSE internals - 700 net losers;
NAZ internals- 740 net losers;
NDX- 33 WINNERS- WYNN GRMN BBBY AAPL NVDA MSFT CELG TEVA BIIB QCOM -LOSERS-UAUA TLAB XMSR SNDK SEPR PCAR S MXIM JOYG BEAS MICC;
OEX -30 WINNERS- EMC AES F MSFT ATI GOOG GS MDT DOW PG- LOSERS- COF MS LEH ROK S C TGT CBS WB JPM EK HD;
IBD 100- 55 WINNERS- JRJC CRNT EXM SNDA BIDU BHP BBL GRMN SCHN ESI DRYS RIO- LOSERS- MHJ DWSN WHQ CF WNR VSEA GTI MA POT MTW ANSS;
VIX FLAT and hangs in under 20;
I guess a little Cramer in me today claiming on Friday that I suspect a sell off this week and claiming today that we may rally. Anyhow, I see the path of least resistance as up after a pullback (1505 on SPX) and plan on playing through NQ futures. And quietly my CELG made another new high.
THE EASY TRADE
Heard a few times last week that the easy trade was buying the financials when they hit their lows. Yeah, if only someone would have said where the lows were. Anyhow, here are the gains on indexes/ETF's/ certain stocks since the lows on August 16:
Markets continue to trade mixed to up with strength in the NDX/tech as AAPL BIDU GOOG GRMN MSFT NVDA and YHOO are all nicely higher.
Strongest sectors include gaming, tech, reits, internets, software and large cap growth while airlines, homies, banks, oil service and semis lag.
NDX- 50 WINNERS- GRMN WYNN BBBY NVDA AAPL MSFT RIMM NTAP AMZN EXPD;
OEX- 60 WINNERS- EMC AES MSFT F LTD GOOG ATI KO DOW DELL GS;.
IBD 100- 67 WINNERS- CRNT JRJC EXM SCHN SNDA BHP FSTR BBL BCSI SNHY BIDU GRMN;
NYSE /NAZ internals FLAT;
UP Volume- 323
Down Volume- 283
Surprising to see the breadth on the OEX better than the NDX since the NDX is +.83% and the OEX +.1%;
The weakness in the banks also maybe a hint that the close/near term direction may not be straight up.
Other Big caps not participating include CME GE MO MS MER XOM BSC EBAY SLB COF ROK LEH ABT SGP PFE ;
Two day RSI's on Big indexes:
Note it will probably be hard for indexes to make any headway with out the RUT/MIDs which again are lagging behind.
Markets open mixed with the tech heavy NDX trading in the green and the other major indexes trading red.
The good- GS CME ICE NYX AAPL AMZN GOOG RIMM LVS WYNN MSFT BHP;
The bad- C GE IBM JPM MO MS MER WFC XOM BAC BX CFC MA MTB BSC BEN;
NYSE internals- 400 more losers than winners;
NAZ internals - 480 more losers than winners;
OEX - 30 WINNERS;
NDX 30 WINNERS;
IBD 100 60 WINNERS;
WINNERS- CRNT JRJC EXM BHP SNDA SCHN BBL DSX DRYS TBSI EMC F GM GOOG MSFT ATI DELL AES GS CAT LTD GRMN WYNN AAPL BBBY RIMM ANZN GOOG MSFT DELL;
LOSERS- WHQ DWSN GTI MR NOV CTV CNH LWAY SII CLB ROK BDK WB COF S LEH JPM BAX SLE RF AMGN NXY SLE ATVI TLAB XLNX SEPR ERTS JOYG JAVA ESRX SIRI;
Markets look to be in a trading range for the day but just a heads up that the afternoon may find a little upside as some money may have to be put to work as it comes in from buyers who are no longer scared as the markets are back near the highs.
Some big news this weekend as the Packers beat the Chargers, the Jets beat the Fish,
AROD looking to become an owner of the Cubs, BHP with supposedly the biggest gold discovery ever and how bout those Cowboys.
Anyhow, BHP is trading up about 6% as I type and is a large component of the EWA Australia ETF which has been a big holding of this fish and has been mentioned numerous times on this blog.
IBD 100 new list includes the following stocks:
I would buy AAPL SLB MA and am the proud owner of BHP CELG CAM MTW and would buy more on pullbacks.