CLOSING TRADE

Markets traded in a tight range for most of the day with the "tech heavy" NAZ acting best and the Big Cap DJIA taking a bit of a rest. The DJIA closed -20, NAZ +7.5 and SPX +2.5.

Strongest sectors were homies, semis, tech, oil service, brokers, internets, financials and midcaps; on the darkside were metals, gaming, silver stocks, integrated oil and retail.

Market internals were fair with +530 on the NYSE and +255 on the NAZ.

The NDX was strong with about 63 winners; OEX had about 55 green and SPX about 3/2 to the green.

The DJIA looks overbought and is probably ready for a little pullback as the VXD (vol index of the DJIA) is also in an area where it has recently found a bottom. As I mentioned earlier, perhaps a little jig on Monday as the late buyers prop it up and then the beginning of a decent sell off as traders ring the register.

MIDDAY MARKETS

One of the quieter days on the street as idexes are mixed with homies and tech and oils having their day. The DJIA is -12, NAZ +8 and SPX +2.5.

Strongest sectors are homies, tech, airlines, oil service, semis, software, brokers, internets, utilities, and financials. Weakest are metals, gaming, emerging markets, GOOG retail and integrated oils.

Market internals are slightly bullish with +425 on NYSE and +220 on the NAZ.

The SPX has 290 green; NDX with 65 green and OEX about 62 green.

Best performers are RTN FDX NSM BHI IP ISRG CHKP ERTS and RIMM while poor performers include ATI EK AA MRK BA ERIC AMZN AEOS VRSN and CELG.

Nice to see GS back in the green so maybe that stock has put in a temporary bottom.

I suspect just a lot of chop through the rest of the day as the markets start to digest recent gains. Again, maybe a selloff next week as traders take some profits off the tables and wait for better entry points as the bears harp on the number of days since a blah blah blah. It sounds good and we will get a correction eventually but one can lose a lot of money betting on eventually as the buy the dip trade will probably continue to be the moneymaker.

MORNING CALL

Markets open mixed with the NAZ and tech acting best. And how long has it been since tech led? The DJIA is flat, NAZ +8 and SPX +3. And how long has it been since the Kramer call of "tech can't be owned except for GOOG AAPL MSFT CSCO." I don't think GOOG or AAPL has seen an up day since that great call.

Strongest sectors include homies, tech, semis, software, biotech, defense, brokers, drugs, financials, trannies, retail and small cap value. Leading lower are metals, silver stocks, integrated oils, oi service and airlines.

Key stocks are mostly green with ICE AAPL GS MS IAI leading and CME BOT NYX and GOOG heading lower.

Market internals are slightly green with +470 on NYSE and +275 on NAZ.

SPX has about 295 green; NDX 65 green and OEX 57 up.

Volatility indexes should head lower with the big weekend right in front and I am still looking for the 9.75 level on VIX/VXO (recent lows) as a pretty good sell signal. To be clear I have sold longs but am still waiting for a top early next week.

JOBS JOBS JOBS

Jobs a bit light at 111,000 v consensus of 150/160 K with huge upward revisions for Nov and Dec; unemployment rate ticks up to 4.6% and hourly earnings move up .2% v consensus of .3%;

Futures initially traded lower on the news but have now flipped to the green as goldilocks scenario reappears. The 10 year rate is trading down to the 4.80 area on the heels of the "worse than expected headline number."

On the wires- CTSH target raised at JEF to $100 from $86 and raises Q4 ests while the target is raised to $97 from $85 at B of A; B of A upgrades MSFT to Buy with a $35 target; EOP reaffirms support for Blackstone transactions; GS upgrades MUR to buy and adds it to their Investment Buy list; Deutsche Bank upgrades ERTS to hold from sell and Needham upgrades to Buy with $60 target; global chip sales hit a record $247.7B in 2006, up from $227.5B in 2005; Pru upgrades VLO to overweight from Neutral and raises target to $65 from $61; B of A reiterates Buy on INTC; Indian stocks reach new highs (SENSEX and NIFTY; WY ADM and ACCP profiled in Business Week;

Gapping up- ISRG ERTS CERN YRCW TIVO

Gapping down- SGTL RACK AVID AMZN AKAM SAP NYX AAPL

Finally, Voldemort/Cramer is bullish on FCX CX MSFT HPQ CMCSA LVLT ADBE HAL VOLC UTX ASD AUY GILD and bearish on MMM and SWHC.

THE NFL STRIKES OUT

Just a note about the Super Bowl and the NFL, for those who don't know, several former NFL players are indigent, handicapped, poverty stricken etc. due to the fact the NFL refuses to give insurance, a decent pension or pay health care expenses. Johnny Unitas died hating the league he basically created while others such Packer great Willie Wood and Hall of Famer Earl Campbell sit in wheel chairs as the NFL looks on and refuses to give a helping hand.

Former Packer great Jerry Kramer and others such as Mike Ditka have started an internet site to help former players. Anyone who has watched the NFL over the years and finds the action of the NFL Player's union and the league itself a total travesty, please consider a contribution.

CLOSING GOOG

Markets closed at/near their highs with strong internals but continued crummy action in recent superstars such as AAPL GOOG and GS. The DJIA was +52, NAZ +4 and NAZ +8. IWM and MDY were much better performers gaining about 1% each.

Strongest sectors were gaming, homies, trannies, integrated oils, biotech, defense, airlines, biotech, brokers, retail, emerging markets and small/mid caps.

Weaker were GOOG AMGN AAPL MSFT C KLAC tech, oil service and the NDX.

Market internals were strong all day with a net 1,550 green on NYSE and 900 green on NAZ. The SPX had over 350 winners while the OEX had over 70 green. The tech heavy NDX was flat between winners and losers.

The VXO closed a bit under 10 while the VIX is a little over and a move down to the 9.75 levels will probably mark the end of the recent rally.

GOOG was one of the stories of the day as it dropped about $20 on the heels of earnings last nite and some great stuff from Cramer. I think he says it may be a buy or may be a sell, but either way I will be correct when I get interviewed by my shill.

Markets are looking overbought at these levels and I suspect a selloff next week as the beginning of the month money fades away and trader folks ring the register.

HOW NOW?

Markets have pulled back since the early morning euphoria and some of the key stock "tells" are looking lower.

The DJIA +16, NAZ -2 and SPX +4. The best performing major indexes are the small caps and the midcaps with the SPX acting better than the NAZ or the DJIA.

Strongest sectors are homies, oils, silver/silver stocks, metals, gaming, defense, biotech, emerging markets, trannies and retail. Lower are tech, internets, software, GOOG MSFT AMGN C KLAC AAPL HHH GS and airlines.

Market internals are excellent on the NYSE with a net 1,200 green and net 360 green on the NAZ. The NDX is 50/50 between winners and losers while the OEX is about 70/30 and SPX is
330/170.

Winners include GILD VRSN MNST CELG AMZN BDK LEH CVX DD and ROK while the biggest losers include CMCSA EMC GOOG HPQ TWX SEPR CHRW EXPE and AKAM.

Volatility indexes are near the unchanged levels and so far have not hit the 9.5/9.75 levels I was looking at. I have not traded today except to sell some IWM as a selloff next week would not surprise me.

The chart of the SPX shows some topping as the stochastics are in a negative divergence and the 2 day RSI is well above 90. So nothing wrong with taking some off at these levels.

MORNING MARKETS

Markets open higher but have since come in and are looking a bit tired. The DJIA +22, SPX+3.5 and NAZ +6.

Strongest sectors are gaming, homies, metals, semis, retail, trannies, emerging markets, biotech, brokers and oils.

Weakest are reits, GOOG AAPL and GS.

Market internals are very strong with a green 1,500 on the NYSE and +750 on the NAZ.

Major index internals also very strong although off their best levels with the NDX 75/25; SPX 350/150 and OEX 70/30.

Besides the aforementioned red in GOOG AAPL and GS, other key stocks are green with CME ICE NYX MS and MER leading the way higher. BKX is trading flat while XBD is +.73% and IAI is +.71%.

Volatility indexes are red but the VIX/VXO combo haven't hit my 9.5/9.75 targets yet. That, IMVHO will be a sell signal.

The 10 year Bond rate looks like its heading higher after hitting lows this morning in the 4.77% range. Now back at 4.81% and I am keeping a watch there as they tend to run inversely to equities of late.

JANUARY PUNCHED

The month is in the book and what was the good the bad and the indifferent?

SPX +1.4%

NDX +2%

OEX +1%

NAZ COMP +2%

DJIA +1.3%

QQQQ +2.1%

RUT/IWM +1.7%

Small Cap Growth +3.5%

Small Cap Value -2.3%

Large Cap Growth +2%

Large Cap Value +.7%

EEM FLAT

EFA +1.4%

Mid Caps +3.6%

Transportations +7.8%

ITA (def/aero) +3.7%

RLX +4.2%

HGX +4.1%

DWC (Wilshire 5k) +1.9%

XBD +4.9%

OIH -2.1%

PAAS +12.8%

SSRI +9.8%

SLV +5.1%

GLD +2.6%

HUI -.07%

GDX -.08%

MGM +22%

LVS +16.3%

WYNN +19.1%

XAL +1.3%

AAPL +1%

GOOG +7.5%

GS +6.4%

ICE +21%

IAI +4.7%

CME +10.5%

MSFT +3.3%

INTC +3.5%

SMH +.5%

MSH -.4%

SOX -1.9%


Looks like small cap growth was the in sector along with the mid caps while the gaming companies and exchanges continued their upward trajectory. Otherwise, most sectors in the plus 1%/2% area with the exception of tech which was slightly lower.

On a final note, contrary to what your eyes and ears showed you yesterday, there was an interview between Mr. President and Bob Pisani, all arranged by Adam, the options trader.

SAME OLD SONG

Some major market indexes are trading at new all time highs on the heels of the Fed statement. DJIA/ RUT/IWM/SPX all at new recent highs as the NAZ and tech continue to lag. Anyone mention lately that dips are for buying and the song remains the same.

Strongest stuff today includes gaming, homies, trannies, metals, retail, oil, brokers, banks and internets. Weakest are semis and AAPL.

Market internals very strong with 1,375 up on NYSE and 560 net green on the NAZ.

The NDX has flipped to about 80 green, OEX 85 green and SPX over 400 green.

The brokers have rebounded from recent doldrums and GS MS MER IAI are all trading nicely in the green.

Bonds are being bought big time and the yield on the 10 year is down to 4.826%. Who would have thunk it was possible?

Volatility indexes are getting hammered as fear quickly leaves the markets and the VIX/VXO tandem are now trading a bit under their 10 day SMA's. The recent buy signals in the group has been the 9.5 levels, so maybe a little more upside.

PRE BEN MARKETS

Markets continue to trade near the flat line with strength in oils and metals.

The DJIA is +20, NAZ-5 and SPX -.7.

Strongest other sectors include gaming, trannies, retail, defense and drugs with the weakest being semis, brokers, airlines, emerging markets, tech, brokers and biotech.

Market internals have flipped back to red with the NYSE red 225 and NAZ red 600.

The NDX is 50/50 between winners and losers while the OEX is a bit worse with 45 up and 55 down. The SPX shows about 230 up to 270 down.

Key stocks are generally lower with GOOG continuing to fly higher at +7.75. AAPL BOT CME GS MER MS continue to trade lower and may be giving hints of a bigger selloff to come in the major indexes.

Best big caps are EL BA PHM HLT CTX BMY CHRW CKFR DISH EXPD CDWC RIMM EK and NSC. Biggest losers include UPS MMM F TWX XOM JNPR SNDK SEPR MRVL CIEN and IGT.

Big Ben will be giving his input at 2:15 and remember the first move is generally false as is the second and third etc., so most traders probably better off doing something else.

MORNING GLANCE

Markets open mostly lower but have flipped on the oil build news with the DJIA the sole major index in the green on the heels of strength in BA (good for about 30 points). SPX is +1 and NAZ is +4.

Strongest sectors include gamings, GOOG, metals, trannies, homies, retail, drugs and defense. Leading lower are semis, brokers, emerging markets, tech, biotech, airlines, software and small caps.

Market internals are also weak with a red 150reading on the NYSE and red 300 on the NAZ.

Major indexes show 50 winners on the OEX and 60 on the NDX with about 240 winners on SPX.

Best acting stocks include BA BMY GOOG DD ATI CHRW CKFR EXPD DISH EL and BA.

My key stocks are slightly green except for GOOG (+6.5).

Volatility indexes are trading near the flat line and crude is down 75 cents on a 2.7 million barrel build in inventory compared to a 1.5 build consensus.

And congrats to those long the DJIA Futures as they again challenge the 12,600 number.

MORNING STUFF

A chart of GS which has been selling off of late and is down about 10 from the recent high. A preview of lower markets? Could be.

On the wires, 4th Q GDP comes in above consensus at 3.5% and ADP estimate of job growth is 152k vs 155k estimate by economists.

TWX reports in line and guides below consensus.

BA beats by 19 cents and raises 07 guidance to 4.55/4.75 from prior 4.45/4.65.

B of A reaffirms Buy on IGT in light of recent selloff.

Oil and Gas stocks upgraded to Buy at Oppenheimer.

Crude is trading down about 30 cents after yesterday's big ramp.

Digitimes reports demand slowing for DDR memory.

Gapping higher are SIRF WSII CGA GBX BMY CKFR FLEX TEVA BA.

Gapping lower are SNDK WBSN NWRE CLS SLAB SNE NTRI CHL JNPR.

Major market Futures are trading down slightly as we await the Fed.

Pivots on the DJIA Futures are 12,548 with support at 12,523 and resistance at 12,584.

CLOSING COMMENTS

Markets closed the day at/near the highs as the day trading dip buyers had numerous opportunities to buy and sell near the close.

Strongest sectors were oils, emerging markets, metals, silver stocks, banks, tech, small caps, biotech, trannies and brokers; leading lower were gaming, airlines and software.

Market internals were the tell that a rally would probably appear as the NYSE closed with 1,350 more winners than losers and the NAZ closed with a net 550 to the green.

Major indexes all had many more winners than losers with the OEX showing 67 up, the NDX with 60 up and the SPX with a very bullish 350 green.

Leading higher were FHN UNM WFT L MOT ITW BMY CHRW CKFR FLEX PTEN ADSK WFMI BDK BHI and S. Lower were MMM UPS F FDX MRK JNPR ATVI LRCX ADBE and MRVL.



The DJIA was a laggard as MMM and MRK were major drags. Without them, the DJIA would have been up 70 points. Also not participating were the Semis; some days they act great and other days they do nothing. GS and AAPL also were lower today and are beginning to unnerve some traders as they should be leading market rallies. ICE MER MS IAI were all higher and CME recovered about 25 points of morning losses.

In the for what its worth category, the small caps have now take the lead in the best performer for 2007 as they are now +1.3% compared to +.7% for the SPX and +.5% for the DJIA. Oh, and has anyone on CNBC mentioned that IWM is only about 60 cents from an all time high. Advice to Jimmy Cramer, just tell folks to buy IWM every nite and ignore the individual stocks. Makes for lousy TV but good returns.

My market commentary remains the same, dips are for buying as that strategy has worked since March 2003.

I can give anyone many many reasons why the markets should go lower but the old adage of trade what you see continues to say higher prices as there continues to be demand for equities.

We are again only about 90 points from all time highs on the DJIA and it wouldn't surprise me if some time next week go knocking on the door again.

CRUDE MARKETS

Markets are higher but considerably off their peak as the price of crude is steaming higher by about 2 bucks. The DJIA is +17, SPX +5 and NAZ +2.5. Note that the DJIA Futures hit the resistance point at 12,570 and immediately turned tail.

Strongest sectors are oils, metals, emerging markets, biotech, large cap value, defense, tech banks and brokers. Leading lower are gaming, airlines, software and semis.

GS AAPL and ICE are all lower on the day and have not acted well of late. Not sure if they are implying a near term market reversal but they sure act lousy.

Market internals are bullish with the NYSE a +890 and NAZ a +370 while the internal action on the major indexes also looks very good. The SPX is 325 green; NDX 55 green and OEX 70 green.

Biggest winners are BDK BHI AA CAT ROK PTEN WFMI UNM WFMI FHN ITW MOT and WFT while LXK IFF PCL MMM JNY UPS ATVI GRMN AMZN and LRCX lead lower.

Anyone investing in the DRUG sector may want to check out the new PHARMALOT BLOG put out by the Star-Ledger. The author has been writing about the sector for many years and it is definitely worth a read.

MORNING TAKE

Markets are bouncing all over the board with a bullish bias as it appears to be the SPX's turn to take the baton and run.

Oils, metals, internets, emerging markets, retail, biotech, and tech are leading higher while airlines, gaming, trannies and software are lower.

Market internals are very bullish with the SPX being brightest at 330 up; 60 up on the NDX and over 70 green on the OEX.

Overall, the NYSE is green by 735 and the NAZ is green by 250.

Key stocks (GS AAPL GOOG ICE MER MS IAI) are all green with the lone exception of the CME which has already come back about 10 off the low.

Winning index stocks include BKD BHI TGT UTX VRSN AKAM WFMI and MOT while the biggest losers are LXK IFF PCL MMM UPS JNY CME and WYE.

Volatility indexes are basically flat and the bond rates have barely moved as the 10 year yields 4.88%.

PRE MARKET SQUAWK

On the wires - WSJ reports that the Saudi's will cut oil output another 158k barrels effective Feb 1; MRK reaffirms $2.51-$2.59; IGT target upped to $56 from $43 at CIBC; PG beats on revenue Q2 eps in line and raises Y07 guidance; CP misses by 2 cents, guides FY 07 in line with revs slightly below consensus; CL beats by 3 cents, see Y07 gross margins to grow by 110 bps; UPS reports in line, guides FY 07 slightly below consensus; JPM upgrades SBUX to overweight from neutral; BSC upgrades TSO to outperform from peer perform; CFC misses by 2 cents and give eps guidance for 07 of $3.8-4.8 (quite a range) and expects the current difficult market conditions will continue.

Moving up - ALGN JDAS MOT SI MXIM TGX CGEN BDK SBUX BHP AA SAP - Moving down - GNSS MMM UPS CFC STO GFI SHPGY.

Futures are trading up with the DJIA futs up 20, ES +3 and NQ +5, and check out the article written by Raymond James's CIS Jeff Saut, and a little more on the blogger poll by one of the bloggers.

Pivot points on the DJIA Futures are 12,533 with support at 12,490 and resistance at 12,570- SPX pivot is 1,422 with support at 1,417 and resistance at 1,426.

CLOSING MARKETS

Markets closed near where they started as the DJIA closed +4, NAZ +6 and SPX -1.5.

Strongest sectors were airlines, trannies, small caps, retail, small cap value, midcaps, internets, homies, biotech and tech while biggest losers were metals, brokers, emerging markets, gaming, oils and banks.

Key stocks were primarily lower with GS down $2.21, GOOG down $3.37, ICE -$5.37, CME -$13.36, MER -$2 and MS down a buck.

The rate on the 10 year Bond climbed up to 4.892% and is putting some fear into some of the bulls as the recent selloff/standoff in the markets began as the rates started to climb.

Market internals started the morning nicely green with NYSE showing a bullish +1000, but flipped to flat in the early afternoon trade and closed with about 340 more winners than losers. The NAZ was a bit better with 550 more green than red.

The NDX closed with about 62 stocks in the green while the OEX had about 45 winners. The SPX 500 was about evenly split between winners and losers.

Volatility indexes climbed higher with the VXO/VIX combo now trading about 6% /7 % higher than their 10 day SMA's. So not quite to buy territory but may be a place to start to dip.

Also wondering why the small caps were so strong today; generally one of the first indexes that shorts go for is the RUT/IWM. Just wondering.

Speaking of a place to dip, how about the 50 day SMA on the SPX. Yes, about 6 points lower, so maybe that gets touched as the 110% of the 10 day SMA on VIX/VXO gets hit. Just may get the combo buy signals later in the week.

AFTERNOON MARKETS

Markets continue to trade higher with the NAZ and the small caps leading the way. The DJIA is +50, NAZ+15 and SPX +4.

Strongest sectors include airlines, trannies, silver stocks, small caps,semis, retail, tech, mik caps and internets; to the downside are brokers, metals, finanicals, emerging markets and biotechs.

Market internals have predicted the direction as they have been fairly strong all day. The NYSE has about 950 more green than red and NAZ about a net of 750 green.

The major indexes also show green internals with the OEX showing 62 green, NDX 75 green and about 310 green on the SPX.

Key stocks finds INTC GOOG AAPL KLAC all nicely green while GS ICE CME MER MS IAI are all red.


The SPX was hovering above its daily pivot at the 1,422 level all morning and has now broker up to resistance at the 1,427 area. I suspect higher prices later in the afternoon as the can't get em down they will take em up trade continues.

HIGHER MARKETS

Markets open mixed with lots of cross currents interfering with a clear market direction call.

The DJIA is +36, NAZ and SPX +2 and the outperformer is IWM, up about .7%. When does that big cap over small cap come back into play?

Strongest sectors are airlines, silver stocks, trannies, small caps, biotech,oils, homies and drugs while metals, brokers, gaming, banks and semis lag.

AAPL and GS have flipped to green while GOOG ICE CME MER MS IAI are all somewhat red.

Volatility indexes are slightly higher.

Market internals are strong on the NYSE with about 900 more green than red and closer to flat on NAZ with 350 more green than red.

The OEX shows about 70 winners; the NDX about 60 winners and about 310 green on the SPX. So let me restate my position- more bullish.

THE WIRES

A slow news Monday morning so far with the highlights being:

Major index futures are trading near the flatline with SNDK estimates cut at Weisel; AAPL target raised to $135 from $115 at Needham; KLAC target raised to $53 from $46 at B of A; LM upgraded to Buy from Hold at AG Edwards; GOOG target raised to $550 from $450 at Oppenhiemer; BMY and SNY sign a premerger agreement; WSJ reports that John Parry an oil analyst at John S. Herold is bullish on refiners including TSO SUN VLO and COP; and BOW merging with ABY in an all stock merger.

Back to the Ticker Sense Blogger sentiment poll, its now even more bearish as 19% are bullish and 51% bearish. Hmmmm.

SONG REMAINS THE SAME

The markets put on an interesting show last week as the DJIA hit an all time high on Wednesday and the SPX hit a new 52 week high. The tech heavy NDX did not confirm as it made its most recent high back on January 16 and the semiconductor etf, SMH hit its most recent high back in mid October.

In addition, volatility heated up on the SPX/DJIA complex as the range last week on the SPX was 24 points vs. about 9 in the prior week. The range on the DJIA also kicked it up a notch with 192 points vs. 91. Surprisingly, the range on the QQQQ contracted to $1.18 from a prior $1.49.

John Carter, the author of the excellent trading book, Mastering The Trade, is a bit bearish in the short term and has found a number of negative divergences. The folks at TickerSense also have some bearish data and the Blogger Sentiment Poll, 46% BEARS, 22% BULLS and 32% Neutral.

My guess is that interest rates come down a bit helping equities and the sell siders scream "you wanted a dip to buy, here it is, go buy it."

The NAZ, down about 75 points, or 3%, from the mid January highs may be bottoming and the SMH also seems to have put in a low as the stocks were strong on Friday and maybe heading higher as the stochastics seem to be hooking up.

I probably sound bullish and I am, but most watching the tape/screens everyday sees demand for equities; so until proven otherwise, dips are for buying.