Markets closed mixed after a rally attempt in the final hour failed - as someone was trying to get equities up before the end of the month, quarter or half.
The SPX -1.5, NAZ +9 and DJIA -34.
Strong sectors- real estate, internets, small caps, biotech and brokers while metals, energy, homies and retail lagged.
NYSE- 500 net winners;
NAZ 700 net winners;
SPX- 200 GREEN;
NDX- 50 GREEN;
VIX down a bit at 25.98;
TRIN- 1.36 with up and down volume about equal and way up to 2 B shares - the most in quite a while;
Tech stocks a bit over bought as the NQ has an RSI (2) of 88 while the ES is a mere 69.
Probably more mark up action on Monday and then some beginning of the month/half buying and maybe a sell off into the end of next week - taking it one day at a time - made some money today as I tried to buy low ticks and sell high- and they were very high near the close but then sold off.
THE SLOW CHOP
Markets continue to chop led by NQ to the upside and the DJIA to the down side- Note the green for ICE BIDU NYX GS MA RIMM ANZN V AAPL MS GGOG BLK - pretty good line of green for a down day in the major indexes.
Market internals - not so good with NDX at 42 GREEN and SPX at 153 GREEN - NAZ/NYSE flattish internals;
Down volume still dominating to the overall volume at about 1.5/1 with the TRIN at 1.39.
Sold my QLD with about a 20 cent profit - which isn't too shabby for a day like today - and I expect to reenter lower and hold on for a mark up ramp into the 3 oclock hour.
Mkt Sci on the 50/200 cross;
Sheila can't sell house either;
DR. BRETT with some mkt delta;
NO problem over there;
Farrah and her 1 piece;
Markets open to lots of chop and slop with the NQ the leader and the RUT lagging-
Strong sectors- semis, internets, brokers and tech while energy, banks, drugs and real estate lag.
NYSE- 550 net losers;
NAZ- 400 net losers;
SPX- 125 GREEN;
NDX- 33 GREEN;
VIX- higher by almost 2% at 26.8 and still low on a relative basis.
TRIN- 1.01 with down volume about 1.7x the up;
Appears to be a choppy day setting up and looking to buy some QLD/SSO near some support areas for a day trade-
Note the 4 horseman all green along with MS GS - so a long side trade from a dipped area probably a good shot.
Markets closed near the highs after gyrating in the final hour - seemed like someone wanted to save the day for the bulls.
The SPX now in a healthy state above all the significant moving averages and at the EMA 20- not sure it will stay above those levels as we are now at over bought levels.
In addition the SMA 200 is down trending.
RSI 2 levels as follows:
The VIX also collapsed today as it fell to 26.36- and about 12% under the SMA 10- so not so bullish as the market rarely makes significant gains from these "relatively" low VIX levels.
I suspect the bulls wont give up much before the end of the month as we also have quarter and half end mark ups in addition to the usual month end.
Markets reversed to the green side as Ben started talking to Congress and is now much higher at DJIA +105, NAZ +27 and SPX +12.
Strong sectors- retail, homies, energy, trannies and brokers while real estate, junk, ags, banks and telecom lag.
NYSE- 1300 net green;
NAZ- 1200 net green;
NDX- 93 GREEN;
SPX- 439 GREEN;
VIX - down 6% at 27.25 and about 9% below the SMA 10;
Expecting gains through next Monday as mark up for end of Q and first half show up big today- over bought not real meaningful till next week - already in and out of SSO and remaining long DIG/UNG.
PRE MARKET DOWNER
Equity futures trading lower this morning on the heels of worse than expected initial claims numbers. 627K v 600K consensus-
Levels to watch - around 890 on the ES futs and 1441 on the NQ.
In other news- a 3x long SPX ETF en route;
Some interesting charts on GDP in relation to stock prices;
And some bad news for Farrah;
THE LATE CLOSE
A typical wacky FOMC afternoon of trading that ended with the SPX up 6, the NAZ +27 and the DJIA -23.
Strong sectors included metals, internets, reits, biotech and semis while commodities, drugs, telecom and defense lagged.
NYSE- 1400 net winners;
NAZ- 600 net winners;
NDX 90 GREEN;
SPX 391 GREEN;
Winners WY ORCL FDX EMC AVP F SLE RF AA AMZN FMCN BBBY YHOO STLD FSLR;
Losers PAYX GILD ORLY AMGN FLEX ADP NTAP BA NKE MON GD S LMT AXP UTX RTN;
VIX - down 5% at 29.05 and trading 3% under the SMA 10;
Volume very weak with up volume 8/3 over down with a light 1.1B shares traded;
RSI (2) levels as follows:
A very whippy afternoon with the DJIA closing lower with lousy action from BA contributing to a lot of the loss- Internals were pretty good - and as usual not much feel for direction for tomorrow as it is a day traders market for now- however the SPX is still above the 50 and 200 SMA so probably some support there on any dips.
Markets have slowed a bit ahead of the FOMC announcement at 2.15- SPX +13, NAZ +38 and DJIA +72.
Strongest sectors- metals, trannies, homies, tech and semis while drugs, retail and telecom lag.
NYSE- 1900 net winners;
NAZ- 1300 net winners;
SPX - 455 GREEN;
NDX- 95 GREEN;
VIX down 5% at 29;
TRIN- .68 with up volume about 9x the down;
Gold +11, Crude +23 cents and Nat gas down 3% at 3.78;
Market having a very tough time getting past R3 on the ES at 905 area- My plan for the day - dipping into UNG/DIG/XLE for a swing trade as they are over sold and looking to off load some other longs which are up a bit too much today.
Equtiy futures moving up this morning on the heels of a better than expected durable goods number.
Important areas today for trading are the 900 level on the ES which is daily R2 and above the SMA 50 on the ES which is sitting at 895.
On the NQ, 1435 is R1 while the SMA 50 is way below at 1410- R2 on the NQ sitting 10 points higher at 1445 area.
And looks like another forecast that the recession will end this year- big deal.
One of the less exciting days one will find on the street as the SPX closed +2, the NAZ -1 and the DJIA -16.
Strong sectors- metals, ags, telecom, fins, real estate and brokers while retail, semis, small caps and internets lagged.
NYSE- 180 net losers;
NAZ- 470 net losers;
SPX- 233 GREEN;
NDX- 50 GREEN;
Up volume 1.5x the down with about 1.2B shares traded;
VIX - down almost 2% at 31.63;
Gold higher at $926 while crude ripped to $69.2.
Not much to say about today's trade except it was a sloppy chop festival- my trades - SSO sold for a little gain near the end of the day - very little - snack money.
Markets still over sold but working it off with the side way trade and RSI 2 levels as follows:
Prices a bit below the 50 and 200 SMA - so that will be followed closely by all the technicians- 899 on both.
Markets have sold off a bit after the open and are now trading -2 on SPX -9 on NAZ and -37 on the DJIA.
Strong sectors- real estate, financials, telecom and drugs while retail, semis, tech and energy lags.
NYSE- 500 net losers;
NAZ- 400 net losers;
SPX- 162 GREEN;
NDX- 33 GREEN;
VIX slightly higher at 31.43;
Down volume about 1.5x the up;
Market internals and action not looking so great for the bulls - yet but I suspect a little turnaround Tuesday action before long and I expect to dip into the SSO/QLD etf's and finally a decent discussion on CNBC about ETF's- they are not evil- as long as you know what they try to do-
And on the dark side - the SPX is moving lower and further away from both the 50 and 200 SMA's-
PRE MARKET LIFT
Equity futures are trading a bit higher but off their best levels of the morning:
Crude is up about 1% at $68.15 while nat gas is unchanged at $3.92.
Gold also near the unchanged line at $924.
Ag commodities also higher while the dollar is down about half a percent at 80.675 and the EURO is almost back to 1.4.
Dr. Brett with some research on what happens when 20 day lows make a 20 day high- looks higher.
RSI (2) also calling for a bounce as it is at the 10 level on the SPX - also note the index closed at its lowest level since May 1 and below the SMA 50 for the first time since March 30.
Markets were way down today and closed at the lows - and there was hardly a bounce all day-
SPX -28, NAZ 61 and the DJIA -201.
Strongest sectors included telecom, retail, junk, drugs and biotech while energy, metals, banks, Brazil, real estate and brokers lagged.
SPX - 47 GREEN;
NDX- 1 GREEN;
NYSE- 2400 net losers;
NAZ- 1800 net losers;
Metals and commodities down across the board while the dollar was higher and the 10 YEAR NOTE closed at a rate of 3.69%.
The SPX closed under the 50 and 200 day SMA- and the bulls may be in some serious trouble- while the VIX closed up 11% at 31.17 and about 5% above the SMA 10.
RSI (2) levels - very oversold as follows:
I did not buy at the close as I suspect better prices tomorrow- so sitting tight for now and looking to buy QLD/SSO into weakness on Turnaround Tuesday tomorrow.
Also looking to dip into DBA and perhaps UNG as they are also tempting.
SOCIALIZED HEALTH CARE?
Market are way down this morning but seem to finding some temporary support near the SPX 903 area- which was also support last week- before the turn higher.
SPX -18, NAZ -42 and DJIA -122.
Strongest sectors- telecom, homies, retail, junk and drugs while energy, materials, metals, trannies and ags lag.
SPX 70 GREEN;
NDX 3 GREEN;
Winners- SO AEP S LOW WMT ETR WY VZ MA FMCN ALTR VRSN BBBY MRVL;
Losers- JOYG STLD FLEX FWLT LINTA AKAM NIHD FSLR AA NOV DVN HAL DOW WMB OXY;
Gold down 12, crude down almost $3 and nat gas down about 4% while ag commodities down about 2% or more across the board- and the dollar up only .5%.
Down Volume 10x the up;
TICK reading have been ugly all morning as they repeatedly hit between -800 and -1,000.
I am still looking for support at the SMA 50 of 898 on the SPX - and way lower than that on the NDX at 1405.
Equity futures are trading way lower this morning with the ES down 8.5, NQ -12.75 and YM down 65- and fair value was considerably red to begin.
Commodities and the dollar doing what one would expect - a higher dollar and lower crude, gold, silver and ags.
The weekly chart on the SPX looking pretty ominous as the MACD and Stochastics look like they are getting to rollover from over bought levels. Not sure but key levels noted below.
Some key levels include the 20 ema on the ES which is now way above at 916 and 1452 on the NQ-
The Monthly Pivot on the ES was pretty good support the last time it was tested so watch that level again today at ES 903.
SMA 50 area on the SPX is 898 and 893 on the ES and it is around 1405 on both the NQ and the NDX;
BACK AT IT
Sorry for the technical glitches but TSR is back and ready to ready to roll.
Barron's this week- shooting a hole in the gun stocks- Steve Sears on how TWEET it is- and calling out some terrific tweeter-bullish on SYK - not sure I agree with this one as margins look to be problematic with new health care issues- and Platinum - looking good.
Checking the markets - the SPX is getting into some interesting territory - the SMA50 is about to cross over the down sloping SMA 200 - implications - here are some thoughts-
Currently the SPX is about 20 points above the SMA 50 and the RSI (2) is about 68 while the VIX is about 5.5% under its SMA 10. More on the VIX check out what Bill recently wrote.
My take on equities- pretty simple- if the dollar heads lower equities and commodities generally go higher - - check the Quant and his take.
Dr. Brett talks about his twitter updates and the value added to traders- and he is good.
My fellow SHS alumnus Alan Blinder with his take on why Inflation isn't the danger.
Not sure if this chart is bullish or not-
And how about those folks at FOX- not on my cable system (CVC) and losing viewers to CNBC.
Finally - Iran and what happens there- if you want to follow the best on TWITTER for coverage- check this witness and the person who probably won the election- it is happening quickly and no better place to follow than twitter - and the people eventually get what they want and I suspect that is whats next.