Markets are trading a bit higher after yesterday's sell off on the heels of the Bhutto tragedy and the lousy durable goods numbers. Lots of folks are trying to pick stocks/sectors for next year and a little more on that over the next few days. Shockingly, few expect energy/metals to continue to be a good spot but most expect tech to do well.
Strongest sectors today include metals, oil service, telecom, defense, gaming and small caps while airlines, real estate, homies and biotech lag.
Key stocks- generally higher led by BG MTW WYNN POT INTC CAT AAPL GS RIMM and MGM while DECK VMW MS CELG BAC UA NVDA NYX and ISRG lag.
NYSE/NAZ internals slightly to the plus side;
IBD 100-70 WINNERS;
WINNERS- FTK SLT KOP TKC HDB ABAX WMS ININ LOGI RYAAY STLD CHRW PCAR JOYG JNPR ADBE WYNN SLB WMB LTD T EXC VZ CAT;
LOSERS- GM MS EK FDX F JPM WY LEH BA HRBN GSOL CPLA MICC FCSX VMW FMCN SID MICC SIRI SRCL UAUA AMLN FMCN LRCX VRTX;
Technically, the NDX/SPX/DJIA are all trading at/near their 50 day SMA's. The DJIA/SPX are also near their 200 SMA's so for all the folks who talk about volatility, the markets have hardly moved over the past several months. Obviously, lots of daily volatility but overall smack in the middle of the recent ranges.
Markets have come up off their worst levels and the SPX/DJIA are both trading at/near their 50 SMA's.
Sectors holding in the best include metals, internets, utils and drugs while airlines, real estate, small caps and banks are the laggards.
Market internals still near their lows with about 3,000 net losers between the NYSE and NAZ while the NDX/OEX/IBD 100 each show less than 10 winners.
VIX- leveling out at the +7% level near 20;
Volume very low and down numbers about 5X up;
Green stocks include- AAPL AMZN DELL TEVA CBS DELL ORCL BIDU CCH MA POT MEE MOS;
Biggest losers- C WFC JPM INTC LEAP AMLN UAUA HANS MS AXP GSOL ARGN YGE HDB ABAX SLT BCSI VMW HPQ WFR;
Oil backing off a bit and under $97 after trying for the little discussed $100 number.
10 year Bond at/near 4.2%;
Hopefully, the areas of support mentioned in the morning post hold and give us a little bounce here. I purchased some NQ futures for a bounce into the end of the year.
Markets finally hit with some selling on the heels of the Bhutto murder and more less than stellar economic news on durable goods orders.
Strongest sectors include metals, internets, utils, oils and drugs while China, real estate, airlines, semis and small caps are lagging.
Key stocks- generally lower with the exception of POT BIDU AMZN MA AAPL and UA- VMW MER MTW C MS NVDA INTC and CELG acting the worst;
NYSE- 1,450 net losers;
NAZ- 1,260 net losers;
IBD 100- 12 WINNERS;
VIX-trading at 19.7 and up about 5.5% and trading about 7% below the 10 SMA;
Down volume about 5X Up volume;
For those looking to buy stocks lower, lower prices are on the screen- RSI (2) levels now near the 40 level on most major indexes. Volatility indexes a long way from buy signals;
I don't expect the assassination of Bhutto to derail the markets for very long;
Technically, next area of support near the 1,485 level and after that probably 1,475. Note the 50 SMA on SPX at/near 1,483 and DJIA level at 13,400, so hopefully a little back stop not too far from these levels.
An uneventful day in the markets unless one is long oils/oil service/crude as the XLE/OIH are hitting new 52 week/all time highs as crude rallies to the $96 level. Metals also big winners as the HUI is up 2.25% and looks to be in a new uptrend with the old highs (460) a short term reachable target.
The TECH heavy NDX as it is also leading the markets led by JOYG AMZN MICC GRMN ESRX AAPL GOOG RIMM INTC EBAY and BIDU.
Lagging sectors - airlines, real estate, retail, homies, insurance and defense.
NYSE- 325 net losers;
IBD 100-70 WINNERS;
WINNERS- POT FSLR GOOG EMR SLB HAL COP T ATI XOM CAT HRBN ARD CYBS TISI BCSI BIDU AGU BIDU;
Technically, markets held the 1,490 level and are now knocking on the 1,500 door. Next area of resistance is near 1,505 then 1,520.
Markets have opened lower on the heels of less than great news from TGT. The DJIA -43, NAZ -10 and the SPX -6.
Strong sectors include metals, oils, telecom and biotech while airlines, retail, real estate, insurance and trannies lag. Financials and brokers again stinking up the markets as BSC hits a new 52 week low.
Key stocks mixed with AMZN BIUD GRMN CAT XOM LVS and NVDA higher while RIMM MTW MS NYX CME ICE CELG and VMW are lower.
Volatility indexes moving up as the long holiday period is over until next wee. VIX +3.75% and VXO +6.5%.
NYSE- 800 net losers;
NAZ-600 net losers;
IBD 100-40 WINNERS
WINNERS- HRBN ARD SLT BCSI YGE TISI FCSX AMZN MR AGU JOYG STLD AMLN LVLT MICC AKAM ERTS GRMN NIHD LEAP SLB S CAT XOM COP HAL CL CVX CMCSA VZ BHI;
LOSERS- LTD TGT CSC LEH EMC RTN MS WMT HIG RF SHLD UAUA HANS RIMM SBUX PCAR FAST BBBY SID VIP RIMM MTW ININ PCLN FSTR GIGM ICE HMSY TWGP;
Technically, support could/should be near here at SPX 1,490 and below that at 1,480. We are however, over bought on all major indexes and pullbacks from these levels should not surprise anyone.
PRE OPEN FACTS
If you are thinking of buying today for a short term trade, I would note the following:
VIX- 14% under the 10 SMA;
VXD- 15% under the 10 SMA;
VXO- 19% under the 10 SMA;
RVX -14% under the 10 SMA;
RSI (2) levels:
Short term moving averages on advance/decline lines- way overbought;
Gapping up- SOLF SMI CSIQ JADE PAR ITRN CWCO ESLR HOKO DRYS CAAS CELG-
Gapping down- SKM LIZ MAK TGT LXP WMB VZ PETM NYX-
Markets are higher as some new investors put money to work at mother MER at what seems to be lower prices. The DJIA +91, NAZ +15 and SPX +9.5.
Strong sectors include reits, real estate, financials, retail, airlines, insurance and brokers, while emerging markets, gaming, biotech and telecom lag.
Key stocks- about 75% in the green led by MTW POT C GS ISRG CELG AAPL MSFT MER and ICE while GRMN CME UA WYNN and DECK are lower.
IBD100/OEX with the best internals as they both show about 80 out of 100 green while the NDX shows less than 60 green.
VIX -surprisingly up about 2% at 18.8 but still way below the 10 SMA;
Up volume about 3X Down volume;
Looks like the recent winners are the equities folks are reaching for as AGU APC ADM ARD ATW BEAV CF DE DECK DO FSLR JOYG WFR MTW OXY POT RRC STLD SWN SYK TNL and VIP are all on the new high list.
Markets are set to open higher as folks get all excited yet again about owning equities. For those who haven't seen or heard, the 50 SMA crossed below the 200 SMA on Friday and that is supposed to be a "death cross" as coined by some technicians.
The last time we had the 50 crossing under the 200 was back around July 19, 2006 when the SPX was near 1,260, and turned out to be pretty good time to buy. The 50 recrossed above the 200 in mid September when the level was 1,320 so who knows what this one means although I am playing for higher prices as stocks remain cheap compared to other asset classes.
However, I think we get better opportunities to buy as the markets have ramped the last few days. The VIX is more than 15% below the 10 SMA and the RSI (2) reading on the SPX is above 90 so holding powder here probably the move and looking for better prices over the next few weeks.
And checking the latest updates from Standard and Poors, the 2008 earnings have come down to $101.68 or a P/E of 14.6x.
IBD 100 stocks: