8.06.2009
I will not be trading today or tomorrow but a few things about this market seem pretty obvious -
1) The market is moving up every day with hardly ever a rest because equities got far too cheap at the generational lows of March 2009- investors were pricing in a depression and now its clear thats not going to happen;
2) The market knows nothing as prices are a function of whats in front of a traders/investors nose- what will be in 6 months the markets nor investors haven't a clue;
3) No one knows the entire impact of the government programs on the economy - but its pretty clear that if the banks were not "saved" by the government the markets and the economy would be in a far different place- not much play on bubblevsion about that or from Rick Santelli - just let them fail was the mantra from the right - I doubt that would have worked out very well for investors or the country.
8.05.2009
THE CLOSE
Markets closed lower but well off their worst levels- the SPX -3, NAZ -18 and the DJIA -39.
Strong sectors included- financials, real estate, banks, homies and retail while oil service, biotech, semis, drugs and biotech lagged.
NYSE- 300 net losers;
NAZ- 800 net losers;
SPX 157 GREEN;
NDX- 25 GREEN;
WINNERS- C WFC BAC JPM DOW AA GS MON GE;
LOSERS- AMGN CMCSK TWX VZ INTC MRK DIS LLY;
VIX- flat at 25;
TRIN- .45 with up volume almost double the down - and lots of the up volume coming in BAC and C - distorting the reading.
CSCO trading lower in after hours trading-
This fish will be away the next two days and back next week - and looking to buy what is hopefully a lower market next week- the bulls are amazing as they refuse to give up and make the bears look foolish- for now.
THE DIP
Markets selling off and the worst I have seen in quite a few weeks - DJIA -90, SPX -8.5 and the NAZ 21.
Strongest sectors-banks, real estate, ags, fins and silver while oil service, emerging markets, metals, brokers and retail lag.
NYSE- 1200 net losers;
NAZ- 1100 net losers;
NDX- 15 GREEN;
SPX 75 GREEN;
VIX - up 3% at 25.62;
TRIN - .37 as there is slightly more volume at the green end;
RSI 2 level down at 45 on the SPX - as low as it has been in quite some time- as I watch the QQQQ bounce off S2 at 39.6- wouldn't be a surprise to see the market rally right back as lots of folks want the smallest of dips to buy.
8.04.2009
THE CLOSE
Markets closed at/near the highs of the day with DJIA +34, NAZ +3 and the SPX +3.
Strong sectors- gaming, reits, real estate, banks, homies, silver, biotech and fins while oil service, retail, internets and trannies lagged.
SPX - 3/2 GREEN;
NDX - almost 3/2 GREEN;
TRIN- .75 with upside volume about 2x the down.
This market refuses to quit so far and any dip gets bought and usually taken up into the close- Kass with some stat that more stocks are above their 40 day SMA then ever - probably right as there is rarely a down hour.
MIDDAY CHANCE
Markets are trading near the flat line with the DJIA +19, SPX +2 and the NAZ +2.5-
Strongest sectors include gaming, real estate, homies, banks, biotech and metals while oil service, ags, retail, emerging markets and drugs lag.
NYSE- 700 net green;
NAZ- 400 net green;
NDX- 56 GREEN;
SPX 290 GREEN;
VIX- lower by 2% at 25.12;
TRIN- .68 with up volume more than double down on the NYSE;
Choppy day and this fish is looking to buy before the close for a quick flip as I suspect the bulls get this thing higher and maybe lots higher before the day is over.
Oh and yes markets are over bought - but that hasn't mattered in a very long time.
THE CHOP
Markets are flopping around near the unchanged line as good housing numbers came out at 10AM.
SPX -2, NAZ 7 and DJIA +5.
Strong sectors- gaming, biotech, metals and defense while homies, emerging markets, oil service, banks and brokers lag.
NYSE- 400 net losers;
NAZ- 400 net losers;
NDX- 37 GREEN;
SPX - 181 GREEN;
TRIN- 1.26 and down volume about 1.5x the up.
Looks like a choppy day after yesterdays rip higher and looking to buy dips- also looking to get long on a longer term basis EWA EWC and EWZ- they have all ripped this year - but were very ugly last year and I think the long term prognosis is very good for each.
Another warning that we are running out of oil- quicker than one may think;
Lloyd to the employees- don't tell anyone;
Donald - involved in the usual - bankruptcy;
Bankruptcy for the AFL;
SPX -2, NAZ 7 and DJIA +5.
Strong sectors- gaming, biotech, metals and defense while homies, emerging markets, oil service, banks and brokers lag.
NYSE- 400 net losers;
NAZ- 400 net losers;
NDX- 37 GREEN;
SPX - 181 GREEN;
TRIN- 1.26 and down volume about 1.5x the up.
Looks like a choppy day after yesterdays rip higher and looking to buy dips- also looking to get long on a longer term basis EWA EWC and EWZ- they have all ripped this year - but were very ugly last year and I think the long term prognosis is very good for each.
Another warning that we are running out of oil- quicker than one may think;
Lloyd to the employees- don't tell anyone;
Donald - involved in the usual - bankruptcy;
Bankruptcy for the AFL;
8.03.2009
THE CLOSE
There it was - a close near the high of the day and almost 3 points above the 1,000 level.
SPX +15, NAZ +30 and the DJIA +115.
Strong sectors- nat gas, gaming, Brazil, oil service, ags, fins and trannies while biotech, drugs, brokers and tech lagged.
NYSE- 2000 net green;
NAZ- 1000 net green;
SPX - 422 GREEN;
NDX- 93 GREEN;
RSI 2 on major indexes as follows:
SPX 96
NAZ 90
NDX 87
DJIA 97
Markets are overbought but hard to believe a pull back wont be bought quickly as lots of folks are under invested and wishing and hoping for a nice retreat to buy- Problem is that since 666 they have been rare and quick - I suspect that will continue as folks are looking for performance to show the boss.
LEADERS
FWIW checking my key stocks - the leaders and laggards are as follows:
Winners =FCX CNQ BHP BAC XTO OIH WFC XLE MS AMZN;
Losers = PEP T WMT PFE PG MCD INTC ;
So you know.
Winners =FCX CNQ BHP BAC XTO OIH WFC XLE MS AMZN;
Losers = PEP T WMT PFE PG MCD INTC ;
So you know.
TWIN WIN
Markets are higher and we have tagged the SPX 1,000 level and the Nat Gas $4 - all at about the same time.
SPX +14, NAZ +22 and DJIA +112.
Strong sectors- commodities, gaming, Brazil, energy, metals and financials while biotech, brokers, small caps and drugs lag.
NYSE- 2340 up and 570 down;
NAZ- 750 net green;
NDX- 82 GREEN;
SPX- 415 GREEN;
VIX - higher by 18 cents at 26.1;
TRIN- .55 with up volume 8.5x the down;
The round number of SPX 1K has been hit and the question is where to from here- I doubt we sell off hard as everyone probably figures this number gets sold-
RSI 2 numbers at 96/97 on the SPX/DJIA respectively - so the usual there for now also.