DEVELOPING STORIES?

A quick check of the year to dates on various stocks and indexes finds some interesting stats not in any particular order:

The DJIA SPX RUT and OEX are all up less than 1% while the NDX and the HHH internet Holders are both up about 5%; GOOG after being up 11% last year is up a quick 9.7%, and YHOO which was down 35% last year has bounded back a quick 15%.

The DJ Wilshire Value indexes for both large and small caps are red on the year while the Growth indexes are up about 2%. Last year the growth indexes were up about 8% while the value indexes were up about 21%.

The airlines index is up another 12% after being up 7% last year.

Gaming stocks are roaring again after having a banner year with MGM +18%(+56% 2006), LVS+16% (+27% 2006) and WYNN +11% (+71% 2006).

INTC after being down 19% last year, is already up 9.3% this year while the SMH is up 4.3% after dropping 8% in 2006.

The brokers and exchanges continue to act very well with GS+7.3% (+56% 2006), ICE +25% (tripled in 2006), CME +12.6% (+39% 2006) XBD +6.3% (+23% 2006) and IAI +7% (ETF began mid 2006, +37% from inception).

AMGN after being down 13.4% last year is up 7.3%.

Finally, metals and oils continue the trend from the second half of 2006 with OIH-7%, XLE -5.4%, and HUI-5.4% in the first two weeks of 2007.

WONDERFUL DAY ON THE STREET

Markets continue to act well and why is it every time the CBOT goes down the YM Dow Futures go straight up for the longs and choke the shorts. Don't know but its 2 days in a row that the CBOT was down and the YM Futures opened at least 25 points higher than the prior trade.

Back to the markets, the SMH is making a very nice comeback and is now trading up about .4% after trading down on the AMD warning. GS back in the news with a Forbes article on how the percieved hedge fund could blow up. I think they are more like the house at the casino and check out how MGM WYNN LVS et al have done of late.

Market internals continue on their merry way with about 1,000 more winners than losers on the NYSE and 565 more green than red on the NAZ. The NDX is about 70/30 winner to loser while the SPX 500 is 300/200 up to down.

GOOG and the brokers continue to act well while AAPL is dipping again on the option probe news.

Sector winners include oils, silver, metals, airlines, drugs, homies and brokers while internets, utilities, gaming and AAPL trade lower.

I suspect that the markets will close well today and barring any bad news over the weekend, expect the new DJIA high on Tuesday over the 12,580 level.

OPENING LOOK

Markets open mixed with the DJIA unchanged, NAZ and SPX +2 and the RUT up .2%.

Strongest sectors include silver, metals, oils, software, homies, drugs and trannies while semis, gaming, internets and retail lag.

Market internals are strong with a 70/30 up to down ration on the NDX; 62/38 on the OEX and 280/220 ratio of winners to losers on the SPX 500.

Overall market internals on the NYSE are +700 and +300 on the NYSE. Up to Down volume is running at about 2/1 but again its the day before a 3 day weekend and I would be cautious with large positions in either direction as most traders likely square off before the end of the day.

Key stocks have GS+$1, AAPL -$2.25, GOOG+$4.25 MER MS and KLAC flat.

Semis tried to rally off the opening lows but have since dropped again and scaling in looks like the play for those interested in this ETF.

PREMARKET CHECK

Major market futures are set to open lower on dissappointing news from AMD and SAP depressing the overall markets. Interest rates are also creeping up with the 10 year Bond trading at a rate of 4.77% as I type.

I will continue to buy the SMH on any dippage today as I suspect the ETF will trade very well over the next several weeks.

Stuff on the wires this morning includes COP with a $1B share buyback; ICE target upped to $154 at Sandler O'Neill and $155 at Pru; the infamous (Knick fans) Dolan's up their offer for CVC to $30 and call it best and final; AAPL target raised to $105 at Bank of America; INFY target raised to $67 from $57 at Jeffries; Thinkequity top picks for 2007 includes - AAPL CKFR FFIV GIGM QCOM SBUX SPWR LNUX WSSI; and ICE reported another record day yesterday in WTI and Brent Futures.

CLOSING THOUGHTS

Markets close in the middle of the day's range with some real selloffs in Semis and software as SAP issues downside guidance.

Anyone trading the DOW Futures today probably noticed the outage in the CBOT; the good news when they came back they were up about 35 points from where they went down. Good for the longs anyway. I still expect the old highs to be taken out and I will be buying the dips.

The NDX closed up 19 points with about 75/25 the ratio of winners to losers; the SPX 500 had about 380/120 ratio so all is well in big cap land. The RUT was the winner on the day, up about 1.25% although it is rarely mentioned on tout TV.

Overall, market internals were +1,310 on the NYSE and +960 on NAZ.

Strongest sectors were gaming MGM LVS WYNN, airlines, biotech, brokers, homies, retail, trannies and retail. To the downside were oils, software, nat gas and utilities.

Back to the NDX, it is a bit extended with a 2 day RSI of 98, so probably a little selloff is justified, besides tomorrow is Friday before a three day weekend. A perfect excuse.

POM POMS

Markets continue to trade higher although a bit off their highs as the RUT and the NDX continue to lead.

Market internals, generally the best signal for market direction continue to be very bullish with an overall green 1,700 on the NYSE and green 1,200 on the NAZ.

The NDX 100 continues to excel with 80 winners and 20 losers while the DJIA had all green except for BA while the SPX 500 has about 435 green and 65 red. The internals on those indexes don't get much better than that.

Strongest stuff includes DNA SSRI SBUX BBH PAAS GS internets, airlines, semis, brokers, homies, metals, software and oils while AAPL BAC and LVS trade a bit lower.

Volatility indexes bear watching as they are now dipping back down to the mid 10 level. Any drop below 10 probably signifies a near term end of the rally.

I am playing the DJIA Futures as usual and am expecting the recent highs at 12,580 on the cash index to be taken out. That is about 50 YM points from the noon quote.

SCREAMING

Markets open the day higher with the small caps and the semis leading the way. The DJIA +43, NAZ+16 and SPX +6.

Market internals act great with 1,600 net gainers on NYSE and 1,250 net gainers on the NAZ.

On the big cap indexes, gainers are leading losers 75/25 on the NDX; 80/20 on the OEX and 400/100 on the SPX 500.

Strongest sectors are oils, metals, biotech, semis, internets and airlines while gaming and some financials are lower.

Biggest winners include ATVI PETM LINTA INFY CHKP and EBAY while XMSR SNDK MRVL and ERTS trade in the red.

AAPL is down a buck and a half to $95.5 and is probably a buy here as it no doubt will challenge the magnet number at $100.

PRE MARKET ACTION

Major Futures markets are trading near the flat line this AM without much news except for a further drop in the price of crude. Folks will need to assess if that is bullish or bearish for stock markets.

Checking the technicals, the NDX, which has been leading the rally after dipping to its 50 day SMA several days ago, now trades at a very overbought 2 day RSI of 96. I will be watching the semis to get a handle on whether a selloff is near.

In other news, Punk has raised the target for GS to $242; PFE is talking about OTC viagra; VLO and SUN were upgraded to market perform at Bernstein; AAPL is trading down a percent on the CSCO lawsuit; B of A prefers SYK over ZMH and I agree as SYK is a long term holding.

RALLY CAPS

I mentioned in the Noon post that I expected the NAZ to bring the major indexes up in the afternoon and sure enough I got one correct. I played through the YM DJIA Futures and the SMH, which continues to act great.

Other nice winners of late include MGM IAI and GS. The oils continue to lag and I do own a bunch of stocks in the oil group. However, I am comfortable with them as I don't feel like its owning the QQQQ in Y2K.

Strongest sectors today included gaming, airlines, semis, brokers (new 52 week hi on XBD), reits, tech, internets and retail while the usual groups (dogs) lagged such as metals, oils and drugs.

Market internals were a mixed bag as they were overall flat after being way red in the morning.

The internals on the major indexes were a little different story as they flipped to green late in the morning. The NDX closed with about 70/30 winners to losers while the SPX closed with 300 winners and 200 losers.

One laggard of note is the IWM small cap index; probably just not enough tech as that is the play so far in 2007.

The VIX/VXO volatility indexes were both back down to the 11.5 levels and now trade flat with their respective 10 day SMA's.

And check this out AAPL +4.43, GOOG +3.96, GS+4.03, MER+.91, MS+.68, ICE +10.55.

NOON VIEW

Markets continue to trade mostly lower with the NAZ/NDX the sole exceptions. The DJIA is down 21, SPX -3 and NAZ +1. Crude is down again to the $54.5 level and all the bulls can take great calm knowing that Lenny Dykstra is on the long side of the trade.

Other action of interest includes the SMH, which is slightly green, AAPL very green and how come the great analysts on CNBC didn't warn us that if crude came in hard the emerging markets would tank and hence we would have lower U.S. equities. It was always said that lower crude was good for equities.


Anyhow, the NDX has an equal amount of winners and losers with AAPL SUNW XMSR NVDA SNDK and MRVL the winners and BRCM ISRG NTLI CHRW and SBUX the biggest losers.

The SPX 500 has about 175 winners and 325 losers with AA HRB IPG and SSP the winners and CMI SLM OXY WWY and XTO the biggest losers.

The DJIA is about evenly divided between winners and losers with AA T INTC HD BA and MO green and IBM MSFT XOM CAT and GM red.

I am looking for a little move higher in the afternoon as I suspect tech and the NAZ takes the major indexes higher.

OPENING MARKETS

Markets open generally lower with some green in the tech area. The DJIA is -35, NAZ-8 and SPX -4.

Strongest sectors are semis and airlines with metals, oils, biotech, trannies, brokers and banks leading lower.

The NDX has about 35 issues higher and 65 lower with AAPL SHLD MRVL greenest and BRCM ISRG MNST and ESRX the most red.

On the SPX 500, about 115 are higher and 385 lower with AA WU IPG AAPL and MU greenest and CMI BRCM XTO WWY NSU and JDSU the most red.

Overall, market internals are red 1,250 on NYSE and red 780 on NAZ.

GOOG MER MS GS all red while AAPL and KLAC are green.

The rates on the 10 year are moving up again and touching near the 4.7% area while crude is under $55 again. Crude inventory due at 10:30 and I expect shortcovering and higher prices regardless of the number. And how come I can't find T Boone anywhere now that oil is under $55?

PRE MARKET SUPPORT

Markets are set to open lower on the heels of a dip in crude (lol) and crushed Asian markets which are taking the brundt of the commodity heat.

The area of support to watch on the SPX is the 50 day SMA as it will be only a few points away as the Futures are set to open down 6 or 7 points. The obvious area of support becomes 1,400 and it will be watched closely by blogger and technician alike.

In the news, EK is taking charges and reducing the size of the workforce in Rochester; AAPL's target is raised to $118 at UBS; reuters reports that INTC will supply the AAPL IPHONE processor; the trade balance came in at $58.2 B v $59.5 B consensus; SHLD reports comps on SSS declined for KMART and lawn and garden /appliance supplies at Sears; GTRC guides below consensus; MOT downgraded to HOLD at Jefferies; TIF guides in line; and for the Cramer fan, he is bullish on DIS MCD OMTR MPEL and SHLD and bearish on NYB SIRI CHTR and CNXT.

And check out Adam's take on the ETF's, which I am in complete agreement.

CLOSING MARKETS

Could not post much during today's trade as GOOG had blogger down for maintenance for most of the trading day.

Anyhow, the markets were all over the map as the major indexes were much higher and much lower but closed near the unchanged levels except for the NAZ and TECH which closed slightly higher on the day.

Leading sectors were AAPL MGM SLV reits, airlines, retail, biotech, brokers, semis and tech. Leading lower were oils, hmo's, metals and banks.

The NDX had about a 60/40 winner to loser margin; 55/45 on OEX and 280/210 on the SPX 500.

Overall there were about 350 more green than red on the NYSE and about flat numbers on the NAZ.

Looking at my key stocks, GOOG was plus 3, AAPL plus 7, GS MER MS all flattish. Major banks also flat on the day.

AAPL was clearly the story of the day as they have decided to change from AAPL Computer to AAPL Inc. also some good stuff on phones, video and IPOD's. RIMM is trading way down on the news and I suspect its worth a shot at these levels.

Other big winners were BRCM CHKP MXIM FAST DELL and MEDI while S CELG COP and ESRX were the some of the biggest losers.

VXO/VIX tandem holding tough near the 12 level so no real overbought/oversold signals from them.

OPENING MARKETS

Markets have opened flat on the heels of crude prices breaking below $55. And what happened to the great CNBC theory of lower crude means higher stocks?

Strongest sectors are gaming, airlines, retail, reits and biotech while oils, metals, software, internets and utilities are trading lower.

Big cap indexes are showing mixed internals with about net 60 green on NDX; net 50 green on the OEX and net 260 green on the SPX 500.

Overall market internals are 300 red on NYSE and 500 red on NAZ, so again the big indexes are outdoing the individual stocks.

Key stocks are mixed with AAPL /GOOG/KLAC green and GS MER and MS red.

When is it time to buy the oils? I will not try to call the bottom, but I do know that the OIH was down in the $118 range when it bottomed the last time and we are still about $10 above that level. The XLE bottomed last time near the $52 level and that is still $3 lower. Not saying we get there again but trying to call these bottoms hasn't worked of late.

CLOSING NOTES

Markets closed higher as the DJIA closed +26, NAZ Comp +4 and SPX +3. Tech and brokers led the inter day flip higher although the SEMIS and the NAZ lost some of the early day momentum. INTC had an interday flip red and has led the SMH group lower from the midday highs.

Strongest sectors were gaming (LVS WYNN MGM), brokers (GS MER MS), software, defense, silver, small caps and biotech. To the downside, homies, drugs, internets, oils and utilities.

GOOG, a recent winner is down about $4 as it moves opposite big cap tech. GS is up almost $4.5 as folks just seem to like the way it coins money.

Internals on the NDX closed with about 55/45 higher to lower; OEX almost 70/30 higher to lower and SPX 500 about 300 up and 200 down. So an overall flip from NAZ beating SPX to the reverse into the close.

The VIX/VXO pair have closed near the unchanged levels after trading considerably higher earlier. They are still overbought but no longer at buy signals.

The DJIA has also shaken off some of its oversold condition and now trades at a 2 day RSI near 40 although I suspect higher before lower.

NOON LOOK

Markets are acting fairly well in light of the opening dip lower and the NYC odor of gas.

Don't worry was the cry from the NYC leaders and I would say the same about the markets as my signals are pointing higher.

The Semis and the NDX continue to lead higher and I suspect they will bring the rest of the markets up before the day is over.

The internal action at the big indexes is pretty bullish also as the NDX has about 65 higher and 35 lower, the OEX 100 has about 55 higher and 45 lower while the SPX has a bit more than half the issues higher. The DJIA is also about 50/50 between winners and losers.

Overall on the internals, the NYSE is -190 and the NAZ is -165.

Also, keep in mind that the 50 day SMA is a bit below at 1,400 on the SPX.

Strongest sectors are gaming (WYNN MGM LVS), semis, airlines, biotech, software, tech brokers and trannies while the homies, oils (flipped) internets, drugs retail and reits are trading lower.

Strongest stocks in the big indexes are CTXS NTAP LVLT SNDK EMC GD XRX S and IBM while weakest are TLAB EBAY MOLX DHI INTU HD LTD VZ FAST and AMZN.


I suspect some of the hedge funds who were very bullish and very over weight the crude patch may be undergoing some forced selling which is probably pressuring the whole group.

OPENING GAS

Markets are trading all over the map as buyers and sellers tug it out while the smell of gas permeates NYC.

The NAZ seems to be the strongest market as the NDX Futures continue to trade green along with the SEMIS.

Strongest sectors out of the gate include gaming, oils, metals, brokers, software and tech. Weak are airlines, internets, drugs, banks and homies.

The rate on the 10 year Bond seems to be drifting lower with a current quote of 4.66%.

The NDX index has bullish internals with about 60 winners and 40 losers while the SPX has about 190 green and 310 lower while the OEX is about 40 green and 60 red.

Overall, market internals are -400 on NYSE and -470 on NAZ.

I am still buying SMH as that looks like the mean reversion trade for 2007, so far anyway.

And Mark, the reason futures are better than the indexes this morning is because the futures tanked right after the close on Friday- Its called FAIR VALUE.

MISSED IT

Apparently Jimmy Cramer has recently revamped his top three speculative stock picks. He now has LVLT RAD and SVNT as his top three spec picks for 2007.

In case you missed it, back in October of 2006, Jimmy picked LVLT ARNA and Q as his top 3 spec picks. As of last Friday's close ARNA was down from $15.41 to 12.74 and Q was down from $8.61 to $8.35. LVLT, the only remaining spec was recommended at $5.41 and now trades this AM at $6.14. I wonder if ARNA or Q will ever be mentioned again?

Futures are trading up this AM with YM +25, ES+3.25 and NQ +4.75. I am expecting a rebound from here so I may buy a mid morning pullback.

TECHNICALS-MAJOR INDEXES

Markets closed down big on Friday as the jobs report and tech warnings kept the bulls on the sidelines.

Checking the big indexes, the SPX is about 9 points above its upwardly slanted 50 day SMA trendline; so this maybe an entry level. The 2 day RSI on the SPX is also giving a buy signal so a defined risk entry with a stop a bit below the 50 day SMA may be a nice trade.

The NDX and the MSH have recently hit their 50 day SMA's and bounced so maybe tech will lead back up. The SOX NDX tandem hit their lows early Friday and outperformed the balance of the day. In addition GOOG recently hit the $455 level and has since bounced back to $486 plus and finished +$3.34 on Friday. GS also closed green (slight) and I would have charts of those along with AAPL up as I suspect they will tell the near term story.