2.13.2009
Markets have moved out of chop mode and into downward trend- The SPX and the NAZ both down 8 points.
Sector strength - bonds, semis, ags and energy while reits, banks, homies and shipping lag.
NYSE- 680 net losers;
NAZ- 230 net losers;
NDX - 30 GREEN;
OEX- 30 GREEN;
VIX- up almost 2% at 42;
TRIN- 1.25- down volume 2x the up;
Not looking to do much this afternoon as I suspect there wont be much more on the downside or the up.
THE OPEN
Markets are trading near the flat line with energy, defense and telecom green while financials, real estate and metals are red.
NYSE/NAZ flat inernals;
NDX/OEX flat internals;
VIX- higher by 4% at 42.9;
TRIN- 1.25
TRINQ .75
Volume on the NYSE is a bit to the downside while NAZ volume is almost 2x to the upside;
Gold down about $10 at $937 while Crude is a hair over $35;
Market setting up as a choppy day - and not expecting much into the long weekend.
2.12.2009
THE VERY UGLY
Some laugh when folks mention how the DJIA doesnt have much to lose when you consider the price of some of the components:
Well check out today's action-
BAC -11.2%;
GM 6.6%;
JPM -6.5%;
AXP -5.9%;
C -5.7%;
GE -5.8%;
AA -5.8%;
And only about 200 points to reach the November lows on this dopey worthless index.
MIDDAY VIBES
Most of the major indexes are shaking off the lower open as tech tries to lead us out of the doldrums. The DJIA is irrelevant IMVHO and when/if it breaks through the old lows the other indexes probably will not.
One strategy - long QLD/DXD and that trade has been working for a while-note the action in RIMM AAPL GOOG - all green;
Strongest sectors- biotech, semis and tech while banks, real estate, homies, brokers and utils lag.
NYSE- 1300 net losers;
NAZ- 450 net losers;
NDX- 45 GREEN;
OEX- 15 GREEN;
VIX- flattish at 44.25;
TRIN- 1.3;
TRINQ .67
Up volume ahead of down on the NAZ and down about 3/1 over the up on the NYSE- interesting;
WINNERS- KO QCOM UNH AAPL GOOG AVP NTAP IACI VRTX ADBE ISRG BRCM FAST RIIM BIIB;
LOSERS- JOYG APOL AMAT FMCN PCAR WFMI WFC USB RF BAC AXP BK JPM COF NYX BNI BHI;
RSI (2) levels -
SPX 20
NAZ 24
NDX 31
RUT 19
DJIA 17
XLE 9
OIH 11
THE OPEN
Markets are lower but off their worst levels and this fish is looking for some quick flips on the long side as we are at/near big time SPX support at the 812 level.
Market internals horrible with 2600 net losers on the NYSE/NAZ;
NDX/OEX- 30 GREEN between both;
VIX- ripping higher by about 6% at 47+;
Strongest areas- bonds, gold, biotech and gaming while banks, real estate and homies lag.
RSI (2) levels near 15 on the SPX.
Looking to buy for some quick flips and then probably will look to short any decent bounces.
2.11.2009
CLOSING LUSTER
After chopping around most of the day with a slight bullish bias, markets closed the day slightly green with the SPX +6.6 and the NAZ +5.75.
Sector strength found in metals, financials, real estate and drugs while semis, energy and tech lagged.
Market internals were a hair better than flat - with S's over N's.
Gold and oil were the big stories as the shiny metal closed at $940 up $24 while crude was down $2 at about $36-
The dollar and the EURO were pretty flat on the day so know hint there as to why the commodities acted the way they did.
This fish still bullish on gold but a bit over bought here and crude and energy stocks- I think its still a buy the dip there.
MIDDAY LOOK
Markets are chopping around and the dip buyers so far are being rewarded.
Best action in metals, banks and brokers while energy, semis and tech continues to lag.
NYSE- 850 net green;
NAZ- 600 net green;
NDX- 60 GREEN;
OEX- 70 GREEN;
VIX- down 3.5% at/near 45;
Gold - hanging in above $940;
Crude is flat but energy stocks are acting poorly;
Probably choppy action and I dont think the bulls are getting a great feeling from the screens so far today-
THE OPEN
Markets open higher and the recent trend continues SIDEWAYS- The SPX +8 and the NAZ +14 despite the 15% crushing of RIMM.
Strong sectors- banks, metals, financials, gaming and oils while utils, semis, telecom and tech lag.
NYSE- 1300 net winners;
NAZ- 960 net winners;
NDX- 80 GREEN;
OEX- 75 GREEN;
VIX- lower by 2% at 45.6;
TRIN- .55 with up volume 5X the down;
GOLD- YOWZA up $27 at $943 -
Looking to be a dip buyer today as internals are stronger than the index- generally indexes play catch up -
2.10.2009
THE CLOSE
Back to the usual as the markets close near the lows - with the SPX down 43 and the NAZ down 67.
Sector strength found in metals, bonds, drugs and biotech while financials, real estate and homies lagged.
NYSE- 2150 net losers;
NAZ- 1745 net losers;
NDX- 7 GREEN;
OEX- 1 GREEN;
VIX- higher by 7% at 46.67;
TRIN- 6.04- with down volume 30 X the up;
Back to over sold levels as the RSI (2) levels on most major indexes is under 20-VIX hardly in over bought territory but will look to buy tomorrow - and will add if the markets go lower. Seems to lots of support near the SPX 800 level.
MIDDAY CRASH
Yes - go right ahead and sell the news- everyone else is- Markets are lower - way lower with the NAZ -57 and the SPX -38 or about 5% and the day is little more than half over.
Strong - gold and bonds while banks, real estate and gaming are on the bottom of the list.
NYSE- 1980 net losers;
NAZ- 1400 net losers;
NDX- 4 GREEN;
OEX- 1 GREEN;
DJIA - 30 RED;
VIX- higher by about 9% at near 47.5;
TRIN- 3.62 with down volume almost 20x the up;
RSI (2) levels - over sold yet again:
SPX 18
NAZ 22
NDX 23
OEX 18
RUT 22
Looks like the worst is getting factored in yet again and my guess - if we dip again tomorrow - BUY IT- GOLD hangs in near $915- so getting ready with the buy button but not till the close or later in the week.
Markets open mixed with the NAZ a bit higher and the SPX 5 points lower. The RUT also slightly green along with the Midcaps.
Strong sectors- metals, energy, semis, bonds and small caps while internets, real estate and banks lag.
NYSE/NAZ -flat internals;
NDX- 55 GREEN;
OEX- 20 GREEN;
VIX- higher by 2.5%;
Gold -higher by about $15 and at the $911 level;
WINNERS- EXPD JNPR MICC AKAM LRCX LEAP DOW AA BHI DD NOV MSFT WMB NYX;
LOSERS- BAC TWX RF USB GE COF HNZ WFC VRTX WYNN YHOO NTAP FMCN BIDU ERTS;
Major indexes moving lower as I type and suspect that more details arise from the 11:00 plan from the Treas Secy- tough to game but it seems like we had the run up into the news and now the sell the news.
2.09.2009
THE CLOSE
Markets closed near the unchanged line with the SPX +1 and the NAZ flat.
Strong sectors included shipping, banks, real estate and internets while metals, homies, utils and retail lagged.
NYSE- 270 net winners;
NAZ- 265 net losers;
NDX- 50 GREEN;
OEX- 40 GREEN;
VIX- flat at 43.65;
WINNERS- BIDU FMCN FWLT WYNN MICC LEAP VRSN GE BAC RF EMC MMM MS USB COF NOV;
LOSERS- NYX PEP TWX KO F ETR CL BAX DOW FLEX VRTX ERTS STLD JNPR SYMC AMAT ALTR;
Gold down $16 at $896 and I added to my position;
Up volume a hair better than down on light numbers;
Markets are a bit over bought at these levels and we should get the report from the Treasury Secy tomorrow and dont be surprised it its the sell the news -
RSI (2) levels-
SPX -93;
NAZ- 96
NDX -96
RUT 75
MID 88
VIX- trading at/near the SMA 10- so no big signals there-
MORNING DRILL
Markets are mixed but the buyers definitely seem to be out there - buying energy, banks and shipping while metals, retail and real estate seem to be a source of funds.
NYSE- 315 net green;
NAZ- 125 net red;
NDX- 60 GREEN;
OEX- 50 GREEN;
VIX- up 2.5% at 44.5;
TRIN- .59 with up volume 2x the down;
Just back from some dental work and not surprised that the lower open was bought- next area on the SPX worth watching is about 880 and its nice to see that the SMA 50 on the index holds.
Tech- and NDX/NAZ also looking good with the semis and MSH out performing- XLK/ROM also pretty pretty good.
2.08.2009
THE WEEKEND
Not a lot of stuff in Barrons this weekend - just some Cramer bashing, a bullish take on BHP and a long and painful recession forecast by Ray Dalio.
Dr. Brett on the easy way to spot trend days;
Forbes Most Miserable Cities;
BESPOKE- positive guidance at decade lows;
Barry- on Media Market Timing- too funny;
Barry- an Ugly Green Line;
Gary Ackerman (my former congressman) with the SEC RE: MADOFF;
Finally, the A-BOMB on AROD;