Markets continue higher but surprisingly the small caps made a little run late in the morning and are now the leading major indexes.
Strong sectors include silvers, metals, retail, oils, brokers, internets, small cap growth and drugs; lagging are big cap gamers, real estate, trannies, semis and homies.
Key stock generally higher with GS LM MER NYX MA PVH TIF GE PEP DVN VLO XOM XTO CTSH AMGN GILD SGP CNI FDX FDX leading and FDX INFY WYNN LVS MGM ICE CME NMX GOOG SNDK MSFT KLAC TXN AMAT BAM SLG all lower.
Internals have improved on the major exchanges with net 750 green on the NYSE and 560 net green on the NAZ.
The OEX/NDX both show about 7 higher to every 3 lower while the IBD 100 is a little better.
Big cap winners include EP LTD IBM XRX INTC COP MER INTU YHOO GRMN AKAM SBUX ISRG CTSH and EXPE.
Big cap losers- SEPR MRVL BRCM JNPR KLAC WYNN GOYG XLNX UAUA LEH MSFT T NSC HPQ FDX and AEP.
Volatility indexes down to the high 12 levels and off about 5% and sitting below their respective 10 day SMA's.
Still about 5 points to go on the SPX before the closing high gets tagged. Could happen today but probably next week and then maybe a little sell down.
SAME OLD SAME OLD
Market open higher with the big caps again the out performers. The SPX is +8, DJIA +69, NAZ+10, RUT +2 and MIDs +2.5.
Strong sectors include oils, brokers, silvers, software, retail, internets, small cap growth and tech; laggard include real estate, airlines, trannies, semis and biotechs.
Key stocks generally green led by GS NYX MS MER BSC C XTO XOM PEP GE AAPL INTC TIF and AMGN. Red stocks include NMX MA BAM SLG JOE KLAC MSFT SNDK GILD SYK WYNN LVS and INFY.
Market internals are flattish on the NYSE and NAZ while the big cap indexes are very green with the OEX 3/1 green while the NDX is 2/1 green to red.
IBD 100 stocks also about 2/1 green to red with AQNT VCLK RRST PCLN BWLD TNH and IDSA leading and HURC DSX SYNL UEIC ACH TWIN TEX and GES.
The SPX record close of 1,527 is only about 7 points away and will probably not be tagged until next week. I have been suggesting a long position in the SPX futures for quite some time in anticipation of the tag and it seems like it was the right call.
Futures are trading higher this morning and some interesting upgrades:
Bernstein raises targets on brokers due to improving trading fundys- GS goes from $225 to $250; LEH from $82 to $85; MER from $105 to $120; MS from $92 to $95 and BSC from $160 to $170.
Cramer's favorite growth stock for 2007, NYX, raised from underweight to neutral (down 16% for the year); oh, and the favorite speculative stock for the year, LVLT, down 4.6%, and MO, the favorite value stock, up 6.3%. Nothing like making some mad money.
INTC upgraded from NEUTRAL to BUY at MER;
In other news, GE selling its plastics division for $11B and MSFT buying AQNT for 6 B or $66.5 per share (last nights close, $35.87).
Tough to short the markets when buyouts are announced about every day.
Most major market indexes continue to trade in a tight range near where they were at my opening look. The exception, the RUT which is now lower by .7%, which is down more than twice the average index.
Strong sectors include oils, homies, airlines, retail and mid caps; leading lower are real estate, semis, biotech, internets, metals, utilities and tech.
Key stocks generallly lower with some of the xchanges acting well. NYX ICE NMX WFC MA BAM AZN SYK MGM LVS CNI all higher while GS BSC CME C JPM JOE FLA RWX AMGN DNA WYNN UPS FDX all lower.
Big cap winners include BNI NSC SLB HAL COP BA SLE DELL BEAS SUNW PETM PTEN MNST UAUA and COST.
Losers- GENZ VRTX LLTC NVDA YHOO AMZN TXN NSM CAT XRX HPQ and MOT.
Internals continue weak with red 820 on the NYSE and red 900 on the NAZ. The OEXN 3/2 red to green while the NDX is worse at 3/1 red to green.
VIX/VXO trading in the 13.75 area and above their respective 10 day SMA's.
Pretty boring session and it looks like some consolidation ahead of next week. One area that continues to be weak is real estate as reits and reo's continue to under perform. Not sure what gives but I bet its a buying opportunity. Also looking to dip a toe into LVS.
A rally in the big cap indexes this afternoon would not surprise me and I will probably day trade it from the long side.
Markets open lower with the small caps again showing the way down. The DJIA is -35, NAZ-6, SPX -5, RUT -5 and MIDS-4.
Strong sectors include retail and airlines while metals, silvers, real estate, semis and internets lead lower.
Big cap winners include MGM AAPL GOOG INTC BAM MA PCLN CAP WRNC DELL BNI NSC TGT BA SLE SUNW BEAS PETM UAUA SBUX and COST.
Losers- GS MER CME NMX SLG KLAC TXN CAM XTO BIIB WYNN IBN FDX YHOO WFMI VRTX ATVI GENZ JOYG ATI CAT MDT GM XRX HIG and UPS.
Market internals are weak with 1,110 net loser on the NYSE and 900 net red on the NAZ.
The OEX/NDX/IBD 100 trio are all 3/1 red to green.
The VIX is up a whole 22 bps or less than 2% while the VXO is up 44 or 3.3%.
Little to say except the markets are generally over bought so a little dip here should not be surprising.
Markets are acting a little wacky as the various indexes are no longer n'sync. Witness the various 2 day RSI's:
Large Cap Growth-78
Small Cap Growth-54
Large Cap Value-90
Small Cap Value-57
In addition, the adv/dec lines have been weaker than the major indexes - the question becomes which way now? Do the indexes follow the breadth lower or will it improve taking the indexes higher - my guess - yes, higher - at least to 1,527 on the SPX- only another 13 points or less than 1% and regardless what the journalists on CNBC tell you, the all time high on the SPX is 1,553 on March 24, 2000 (you can look it up).
CLOSER BUT NARROWER
CNBC et al can squawk all they want about the new all time highs on the DJIA, but the rally is narrowing. Witness the NAZ internals - on a day when the DJIA is +104 and the SPX +13 the NAZ internals close with 1,800 higher and 1,235 lower, hardly great breadth as one would expect at least 2/1 up to down.
The SPX is again just 13 points from the all time closing high and the NAZ about 2,500 points away. I still plan on holding the SPX futures until the target gets tagged- hopefully soon.
Strong sectors included large cap growth, banks, airlines, trannies, gaming, tech, biotech, drugs and software; lower were silvers, metals, real estate and semis.
Key stocks higher of course with the exception of RWX FCE.A SLG BAM LEH BSC CME BOT CAM KLAC TXN AAPL LTD TGT CTSH and EBAY.
Big winners included GS NYX NMX MER MS MA WFC JPM C IBN WYNN BYD MGM BIIB SYK GILD SGP TXT AMZN and YHOO.
IBD 100 winners included CPA TNH SIMO IDSA NTGR ESI and IGLD. Losers- BID USAP RRST FTK TTEC SYNL TSO and PRFT. IBD 100 also with sub par breadth at 3/2 up to down.
As previously mentioned, market internals not so great as the NYSE closes with 840 net green and the NAZ with 530.
The internals on the big indexes much better as the OEX/NDX were both 3/1 up to down while the SPX was 360/140.
Volatility indexes drifted down about 4/5% and the VIX/VXO now trade near the 13.5 level or at/near their respective 10 day SMA's.
NOON TIME LULL
Even though the markets act "resilient," I am not getting a warm fuzzy feeling as the DJIA is +25, NAZ +2, RUT -1.5, MIDS -1 and SPX +4.
The NYSE internals are flat while the NAZ is red by about 300.
The internals on the major indexes are far better with 7/3 up to down on the NDX and 3/2 green to red on the OEX. IBD 100 is 3/2 red to green.
Sectors also all over the map with banks, airlines, trannies, drugs and large cap value leading while silver, real estate, oils, semis, internets, semis, homies and small cap growth lag.
Interesting how PEP MO GE PG SGP PFE GILD PPH GS MER C JPM BAC WFC all green while BAM SLG RWX MS LEH BSC CME BOT XTO CAM FTO VLO XLE CTSH TXT all red.
Biggest winners include CPA SIMO TNH PCP NTGR PCR SNP C DELL JNJ WFC PG JPM BNI FDX PAYX DISH JNPR DISCA and ADBE.
Biggest losers include AMAT LRCX EBAY KLAC JOYG BRCM CDNS PTEN AKAM LTD ATI GM BHI WMB LEH and AA.
IBD losers include BID PRFT RRST TTEC TWIN TSO VSEA and HOLX.
Volatility indexes continue in the unchanged area as the markets chop around except for the biggest of the big which continue their move higher.
Small and mids continue their recent under performance and my guess is that it doesn't bode well for the market over the near term. I am still the bull and expect the old SPX closing high to be taken out before the end of the month and continue to be long the SPX Futures.
Markets open higher with the DJIA +43, NAZ +10, RUT +2 and SPX +7.
Strongest sectors include gaming, banks, trannies, retail, brokers, homies and airlines; lagging are semis and metals.
Key stocks mainly green with MS MER GS LEH ICE NMX BOT MO RIMM BIDU AAPL GOOG WYNN MGM AMGN GILD TXT all higher while INT KLAC PEP BSC MA and MRK all lower.
IBD 100 winners inlcude CPA SIMO CNH GSOL IGLD and GES while losers include BID VSEA FTK IDSA TTEC DLB and PCLN.
Market internals are bullish with a net 1,000 green on the NYSE and net 670 green on the NAZ.
The OEX/NDX both with about 7/3 winners to losers while the SPX is about 350/150 ups to downs.
Volatility indexes lower by about 1% and continue to trade in a tight range.
Liz et al all excited about the oil inventory numbers with 10 experts waiting to give their take (can't wait), they may be signalling a near term top in oil stocks; wouldn't be surprising.
A weird weird day in the markets as the DJIA closed +37, SPX -2 and NAZ -21; the RUT even worse than the NAZ down 8 or 1%.
So how good or bad was it? Well- Upvol on the NYSE 665
Dnvol on the NYSE 951
Gaining issues on the NDX 18 with 72 losers;
The OEX/SPX were evenly split between winners and losers;
IBD 100 30 green to 70 red;
The NYSE had 775 net red while the NAZ had over 1,250 net red;
Pretty clear that the average stock did much worse than the big major market indexes.
Strong sectors included banks, metals, oils utilities and trannies while big cap biotech, airlines, internets, brokers, semis, tech, retail software and samll cap value lagged.
Big winners- MTOX MTL BW DXPE MT CHN SSYS GM AA F JPM VZ NSC BNI MMM VRTX MNST JOYG and ESRX.
Big losers- AKAM AMGN NTAP DELL MXIM LTD DELL BDK MS S HD JNJ WY MDT TXN and MER.
Conspicuous by their poor performance of late are the brokers and the xchanges. GS MS MER GLEH BSC CME NYX ICE BOT NMX all down big with NYX NMX BSC and MS the worst and down more than 1% each.
Volatility indexes a mixed bag with the VIX +1.6% and the VXO -.9% and both trade at/near 7% above their respective SMA's.
Well where from here? We may see more downward action but I still expect new SPX highs and I will be adding when/if the SPX gets to the single digit 2 day RSI levels and /or the VIX/VXO gets to overbought levels.
The big cap rally continues as the DJIA is +115, the SPX +8.5 and the RUT/NAZ +1. So the long time out performance of the small caps is done as they now trail the SPX/DJIA on the year with only a 5% gain vs. a 6%+ gain on the big cap indexes.
Market internals also very interesting with the NYSE +800 and the NAZ flat. The OEX about 9/1 up to down while the NDX is 5.5/4.5; so something definitely shifting in equities and the question is where from here.
Strong sectors include silvers, oils, banks, metals, trannies, utilities and large cap value- Leading lower are big cap biotech, airlines, internets, semis and reits.
The OIH and XLE rarely have a down day and BAM is speculated to be a Buffet take over byrealmoney's James Altucher.
Big winners inlcude MTOX CNH HDNG HURN USAP DXPE SSYS SLB MMM AA AES BNI NSC and TYC.
Big losers- AMGN NSM BDK WY MDT TGT AKAM AMAT SBUX MXIM NTAP and WFMI.
Volatility indexes about unchanged and a sell off into the end of the day would not be surprising.
Markets open mixed and rocket higher as I write.
The SPX/OEX/DJIA are higher while the NAZ/RUT complex are up but more moderately. Large cap value is also a big out performer.
Other strong sectors include gaming, banks, utilities, defense, trannies, tech and oils. Leading lower- biotech.
Key stocks are mixed with ICE NYX BSC LEH GS MER MS MA BAC JPM AAPL LVS MGM GILD all higher. Lower are BOT NMX SMH KLAC XTO VLO AMGN and BYD.
Market internals have flipped big and they are now very bullish with the OEX now at 8.5/1.5; the NDX at 7:3 up to down and the IBD 100 also at 7:3 green to red.
Winners include MTOX HURN PCU BWLD BLUD DXPE GM GD BA GE UTX DOW JPM FLEX APOL QCOM JOYG WYNN NIHD and SYMC.
Biggest losers include IGLD TNH HURC GSOL PRFT IDSA TWIN AMGN AMAT WFMI MNST MXIM ALTR BDK WY KO JNJ and NSM.
Volatility indexes lower by about 3% and trading near their 10 day SMA's.
Well sure am glad I wrote that opening missive as that looks pretty good for now.
CNBC morning guest host, Dougie Kass, opined in a funny article the other day on thestreet.com that there were many reasons the markets should go lower. I have pasted in the ones I consider the most salient:
1. The price of gasoline rises to a new high, serving as the functional equivalent of a tax increase for the U.S. consumer.
2. Tech bellwether Cisco's (CSCO) U.S. business enterprise is weak, and guidance for aggregate sequential revenue growth (of +4%) is disappointing.
4. Multinationals offset end-market weakness in the U.S. by the effect of a weak U.S. dollar. More astonishingly, investors consider the foreign exchange gains as recurring.
5. The multiplier effect of the housing downturn hits many building materials companies like Mohawk Industries (MHK) , Home Depot (HD) and Graco (GGG) whiff, but rumors of private-equity deals bail investors out. Housing forecasts are consistently lowered (even by the National Association of Realtors!).
6. The U.S. dollar trends lower and lower, and the likelihood of rising interest rates in Europe and in Asia suggests interest rate differentials will widen further (putting further pressure on our currency).
7. Wal-Mart (WMT) , Target (TGT) , Talbots (TLB) , Sears (SHLD) and others lower comp guidance as evidence of consumer weakness grows. This morning's retail comps are uniformly poor. The automobile industry continues its death spiral.
8. The plethora of mortgage resets -- the single most important factor pressing the U.S. consumer -- is dismissed. Mortgage equity withdrawals, the straw that has stirred the drink of consumption, slow to a crawl. Mortgage lending standards are tightened, serving to decimate the first-time home buyer market.
9. The subslime mess is dismissed, despite growing evidence that the credit contagion is spreading to motorcycle securitizations, automobiles and elsewhere. Mortgage credit losses are expected to eclipse the early 1990s experience.
10. REITs trade above intrinsic value, and dividend yields are at all-time lows relative to another new paradigm. Development projects are beginning to raise supply and have started to hurt regional supply/demand.
11. Trucking and airline companies' results are worse than expected, and forward guidance is reduced.
14. The popularity of the Republican administration hits new lows as the probability of a Democratic 2008 win increases, raising the specter of the politics of trade protectionism, a more powerful view toward antitrust and higher dividend and corporate tax rates.
15. Over there, speculation continues apace in emerging markets (especially of an Asian-kind). China becomes the epicenter of the world's speculation in equities.
Bottom line, for everyone or anyone who can give X number of reasons why the markets should go down there is some one else just as well versed who can tell us why the markets should go up.
I am no Doug Kass but I can tell you this, most who watch the screens every day will tell you that their is demand for equities for what ever reason and for now IMVHO this trumps the reasons Doug lists. Anyhow, here are some more:
1) Savers/investors have to invest their funds somewhere and my guess is stocks are a better value than bonds or metals or real estate. So unless their is a more desirable place to invest, stocks are it.
2) I haven't seen any stats of late but I would sure like to know how much money flows into stocks from 401k's and retirement plans. Sure, big pension funds can buy buildings and shopping centers for investment but the majority of plans buy stocks and mutual funds- so maybe a little supply demand issue favoring equities.
3) Stocks are not inexpensive as per the last Value Line issue; according to the publication, the VL index trades at the high end of its range with a P/E of 19.5 (typical range between 17 and 20). The DJIA, according to VL, trades at a P/E of 16.1, also at the high end (between 14 and 16.5).
4) Finally, my guess is the economies of the BRIC countries will have many ups and downs but in general will grow quickly as more folks join the world's middle class. This will probably be the driver to keep our economy vibrant as those folks need to buy our goods and services.
As I have mentioned, I expect the SPX to reach the new all time closing high of 1,527 sometime soon and probably before the end of the month. After that I will reevaluate my positions but for now the market looks like a better buy than a sell.
Markets close mainly red with the sole exception, the DJIA which closed up 25.
The "tech heavy nazdaq" and the RUT were the worst performers as GOOG AKAM YHOO and RIMM lagged.
Strongest sectors included oils, utilities, biotechs and drugs. On the bottom were silvers, metals, gaming, brokers, internets, trannies, small caps and real estate.
Market internals - ugly as the NYSE and the NAZ each had about 1,000 more losers than winners.
The OEX closed about 2:3 up to downs while the NDX was about 1:3 green to red.
The IBD 100 also with 40 up and 60 down led by RRST SYNL ACH TWIN IGLD SNHY and MTOX- lower were TNH TTEC OYOG PCU BWLD PRFT LFL and BLUD.
The VIX/VXO both up to 14 (+9%) and trading solidly above the 10 day SMA's and getting close to buy signals.
Market commentary- Call me Cramer, but IMVHO dips are for buying until proven otherwise, so if we get a further dip tomorrow I will be buying as I still expect a test of the old SPX closing high near 1,527.
Markets continue to chop with a lower bias as the only major index in the green is the DJIA. The RUT/MID complex continues to under perform as the RUT is lower by about .8%.
Strong sectors include biotech, oils, utilities, drugs and retail. Leading lower are silvers, metals, internets, brokers, trannies and small caps.
Key stocks are mainly red with the brokers (MS MER GS LEH BSC) very weak along with the exchanges. All the banks/financials are lower with MA and JPM acting the worst.
Big winners on the IBD list include RRST ACH SNHY TWIN BIDU SYNL and IGLD.
IBD losers include TTEC PRFT BLUD DWSN LFL OYOG and SPEC.
The DJIA acts best with half up and half down led by GM CAT HON T and AA. The OEX is about 2/3 up to down while the NDX is about 1/3 up to down.
Volatility indexes starting to percolate a bit with the VIX +7% and VXO +8% and about 8% above its 10 day SMA so just maybe some buy signals before the day ends. Also watch the SPX 1,500 level as it may act as round number support; 1,502 also today's pivot.
Markets open mixed and yet again the Big Caps are leading the way with the DJIA/SPX green while the RUT/MIDs/NAZ are all red.
Strong sectors include semis, retail, biotech, drugs, utilities, oils and real estate; lagging are silvers, metals, internets, homies, trannies, brokers and exchanges.
Key stocks mainly mixed with MS CME BOT INTC AAPL BIDU MO SGP PFE GILD all green while GS BSC MER NYX ICE NMX C JPM MA MGM CTSH all red.
Big cap winners include F GM BAX EMC CPB AMLN AMAT APOL ERIC SNUW and VRTX.
IBD 100 winners include RRST SYNL ACH MTOX BIDU CRDN TWIN BTJ and IGLD while TTEC PRFT BLUD DSX SPEC SIMO and LFL are all red.
Market internals are generally red with net 125 losers on the NYSE and net 500 red on the NAZ.
The OEX is about evenly split between winners and losers while the NDX is much worse at 35 green 65 red while the IBD 100 is about 45 up and 55 down.
The VIX/VXO team is higher by about 5% and trading about 3% above their respective 10 day SMA's.
The NDX futures are taking a hit lower as I type and my suspicion is they get bought before to long; just remember - its a bull market and for now dips are for buying.