Markets closed a little off their best levels but gave quite a performance in light of the 533,000 lost jobs in the month of November. What is clear is that it is very difficult to ascertain the economy that is built into these equity prices - obviously that is what makes markets.
The DJIA closed +260, NAZ +64 and the SPX +31 at the 875 resistance levels that we have seen before.
Strong sectors included brokers, reits, real estate, financials and biotech while metals, telecom and trannies lagged.
NYSE- 1275 net winners;
NAZ- 1110 net winners;
VIX- lower by 6% at 59.6.
The trade that I planned on from yesterday was the winner - trouble was the timing and with the real ugly number it was tough to execute- SEE TITLE ABOVE.
Next week definitely looks bullish for the markets as many traders will note how the markets have now shrugged away one of the ugliest jobs reports ever.
RSI (2) levels near the 70 area but look for those dips to be bought soon enough- Resistance on the charts through the 900 level - if we take those out could possibly see 1K before year end.
THE FRIENDLY ROADS
Like I said, lots of cross currents and have no interest in trading today as its pretty clear the markets are a bit confused and recession/depression/recovery are all on the table- after all - for how many months can we lose 533,000 jobs?
Strongest sectors - brokers, financials, banks, real estate and reits while oils, metals, trannies and utils lag.
NYSE- 1150 net losers.
NAZ - 500 net losers.
VIX- flattish at 65?
Market feels again like it wants to go higher but its tough and now with the WSJ reporting that Chrysler has hired Jones Day as their bankruptcy attorney- well who knows.
And for all the talking heads comparing airlines with autos - Americans fly on bankrupt airlines all the time- but won't buy cars from bankrupt companies- why not? Well - its not like I am taking the plane home with me and maintaining it- so just a hair difference. So why would I buy a car from a company that may go away when I can buy one just as good or better from someone who will continue to be in business- just dumb.
Markets are down on the horrendous jobs number and where exactly is the labor Secretary Elain Chao? In hiding with dubya and a proud fellow SHS grad.
Strongest sectors include brokers, drugs and real estate while metals, oils, trannies and homies lag.
NYSE- 1750 net losers;
NAZ- 1100 net losers;
NDX- 5 GREEN;
OEX- 6 GREEN;
VIX- higher by 3% at/near 66;
Small caps doing far worse than big and down volume about 7x the up.
Original thought was that the number could be bought and if you were very quick - it worked- new theory for the day - take it off as lots of cross currents from buy the dip to a worsening depression. So yes - taking the rest of the day off.
Markets closed lower but off the worst levels as folks seemed to be focused on the auto hearings and tomorrows jobs number.
Its now all about the JOBS and my plan for now, if the number is worse than expected - buy the dip and if its better than expected- also buy dips.
Best sectors included homies, retail, trannies and financials while oils, gaming, ags and utils lagged.
Market internals- ugly reversal with 2600 net losers between NYSE and NAZ.
VIX- higher by 5%.
RSI (2) levels a hair under 40.
Crude was crushed down almost 7% and lots of talk of gasoline going to about $1 at the pump- hmmm brings back thoughts of the old days when folks talked about $200 a barrel crude.
THE OPENING FADE
Market opens lower but well off the worst levels as the RUT Futs have turned green while the NQ hovers near the flat line.
Strong sectors- homies, retail, internets, telecom and financials while oil service, ags, energy and brokers lag.
NYSE- 360 net losers;
NAZ- flat internals;
NDX- 30 GREEN;
OEX- 40 GREEN;
VIX- flat at 61;
Up volume a smidge better than down and small over large.
Gartman with some interesting stuff in his letter - focusing on the $$$$, he says
"he fears the dollar is breaking out to the upside and if it is, it bodes very, very ill for stocks everywhere and for the global economy collectively. If the US dollar is breaking out to the upside it bodes for DEPRESSION and not RECESSION. If the dollar is breaking out, it cannot be good, and this is our fear."
Markets continue to move up as I type led by the NAZ/NDX and RUT- while the dollar sinks and gold moves higher.
Next resistance on the SPX is the 890 area with support around 850.
VIX + MORE- with even more on the TRIN.
Kahn from Barrons building the case for a rally.
Markets closed higher led by the NAZ/NDX/RUT and value- the DJIA +173, NAZ +43 and SPX +22.
Strong sectors included retail, homies, gaming, reits and banks while oils, metals and ags lagged.
NYSE- 1000 net green;
NAZ- 625 net green;
VIX- down 3% at/near 61;
The interest on the ten year note fell again to 2.676% and this little tidbit from BESPOKE looks pretty pretty interesting.
Also saw a briefing.com bit that said as follows- "Treasury is considering a plan to halt sliding home prices by lowering mortgages via FNM and FRE"- maybe they are waking up -
Just tell me that TLT doesn't look like RIMM/ICGE/AAPL all at 200+- hmmmm.
RSI (2) levels near 65 on most major indexes so maybe a bit further to go here- perhaps even 900 on the SPX - but the RUT/NAZ/NDX looks like the place to be - and maybe even a rally into year end.
Markets are lower but near the opening levels - so no cascade down yet - but its early-
ISM number came in at 37.3- probably the worst all time compared to 44.4 the last time.
Some good news- Cyber Monday according to comscore - the second best day ever for online spending.
Strongest sectors- retail, biotech, drugs, utils and telecom while oils, metals, real estate and gaming lag.
NYSE- 1500 net losers;
NAZ- 750 net losers;
NDX- 25 GREEN;
OEX- 20 GREEN;
VIX- higher by 3% at/near 64.5;
Down volume about 4x the up;
It would be a pleasant change if the market got some juice on the ugly ADP/ISM numbers - and are the lows in at 740 on the SPX- I suspect so but been wrong before.
Not ready to make any big daytrades today yet- watching for more clues- as it looks like its not the same old for today.
And for what its worth- the 10 year yields 2.7% - so a move up to 4% on the yield puts those bonds at about $675 - so there is risk in 10 year notes - FWIW.
MORE OF THE SAME
Markets set to gap down yet again and the usual trade for days like this- short pull ups and hold for the close as the markets have generally ended big down days at the bottom.
Only things that would make me turn away from that trade- rapidly changing market internals, ripping finanicals or big green bars- none seems likely.
SPX recent high 896 - recent low 741- 50% retrace 820 level so a bounce from those levels is possible - 837 a 61.8% retrace level - and if we go through 820 - next stop 800 - which is also the 38.2% level.
VIX + MORE on a selling climax.
BESPOKE on the bounce.
And your own private bailout.
Markets did the usual- strong most of the day and closed near the highs - internals strong all day - even during the pullbacks- GE also a big winner +14% and dragged the market up with it.
RSI (2) levels near 50 on most major market indexes.
VIX lower by 8% and near 63.
Ten year at 2.69%;
Gold +$15 at $784.
If the market gaps up tomorrow - probably a shorting opportunity - if the market gaps down - probably a short on pull ups.
Internet problems most of the day - so no great insight into the close - my best shot- not much going to happen - probably just bounces around these levels for the balance of the day with a slight bullish bias.
Market internals hanging in with 1700 net winners between the NYSE and NAZ.
OEX/NDX with about 75 winners on each.
VIX- down about 4.5% at/near 65.5;
Up volume about 3X the down;
GE C BAC MRK VZ INTC leading the DJIA higher with 22 of the 30 components green.
Markets are modestly higher after a big gap up and a fade to flat- still looks higher from here as internals look fairly strong on all the indexes.
NYSE- 1000 net green;
NAZ- 800 net green;
NDX/OEX- 70 green on each;
VIX- down 3% at 66.6;
Ten year down at 2.76%;
GE SPLS FWLT GM AA CVX MRK CAT all strong while F says they will be profitable in 2011- kind of stupid like they know- check the other times they said when they would be profitable.
Anyhow, probably a choppy day but long SSO as I type- and wont hold it forever -
Futures are way up in pre market trading on the heels of the late day - "overdone" sell off- and some nice links:
GS to take a loss in the $2B area for Nov 28 Quarter according to the WSJ;
Mark Hulbert on what could be;
Ben on the "no comparison."
And wouldn't this be amusing;
Checking the DJIA chart, doesn't look like a great place to buy and in light of the higher morning futures - could be a pretty good spot for a fade the gap trade.
To the shock of most- the markets closed at/near the lows as the markets were weak all day.
VIX higher by almost 25% at/near 68.5 while gold was down about $50 - silver down about a buck and the 10 year trading at 2.72% - the lowest rate in over 50 years.
Oil down about $5.6 at/near 48.85 and nat gas higher at $6.52.
RSI (2) levels at/near 20 on the major indexes and tomorrow is Tuesday-not ready to buy but probably around 10 may be a good time to step in for a short term flip- say VIX 75/80-
Finally, the recession appears to have started last December and now we are about 12 months through- so if its a two year recession (very bad) do we turn half way through (now) are a bit later? My guess is the lows of 7500 on the DJIA and 740 on the SPX get tested in this bottoming process- but broken big- I doubt it.
Markets continue to move lower and shorting the upticks continues to be the play - and how awful is the RUT yet again - down 7.25% as I type while the SPX /DJIA both down only 6% after the big moves up last week.
Looking for a close near the lows yet again with the next bounce near 8400 on the DJIA looking to be a place to begin putting out more shorts.
Market internals only getting worse with the DJIA showing all 30 lower with the JPM GE C AA BAC all showing the way lower- GS not in the index but ugly as its down +15%.
VIX higher by 15% at near 64.
RSI (2) levels down at 25 on most major indexes and I suspect a move near 10 in the near term.
Pretty ugly this morning as Pull ups are non existant and the markets just drift lower.
Just about all sectors in the red with utils, internets, drugs, biotech and semis acting the best while shipping, oil service, metals and brokers are the worst.
NYSE- 2340 net losers;
NAZ- 1640 net losers;
NDX- 2 GREEN;
OEX- 2 GREEN;
VIX- higher by 14% and near the 63 area;
Down volume about 15X the up;
Still looking to short rallies but none are appearing and it will probably be one of those days where we close near the lows.
RSI (2) levels- near 30 on most major indexes and the suspicion is they go lower - much lower.
Markets are set to open way lower after the big run over the past week- SP FUTs down about 22, NQ down 25 and DJIA - lower by 175.
The strategy for me for today probably includes shorting any and all pull ups with the RUT looking to be a good place as that index has had a very big rally off the lows. Longer term shorts look to have good setups with stops at SPX 900 and DJIA 8830.
A big day in New York today as all eyes will be focused on Marbury Plaxico and Hillary- so should be some amusement besides the markets.
Trader Mike with his overbought take;
A fast turnaround argument from Baumohl;
The 10 year Chart of the Week;
The Best and Worst from Bespoke;