SPX/NDX both way above their SMA 50's and probably a bit ahead of themselves. The NDX about 12% above and the SPX about 9% north. Don't have the exact time the markets were that far north of the SMA 50 but it looks like around May of 2001 and the bulls really don't want to looks at what happened after that stretch.
For inquiring minds - the SPX went from about 1315 on the stretch to 770 in October of 2002- in pretty much a straight line.
RSI (2) levels on both indexes also stretched near 85.
One stat we haven't seen in a while is a stretched VIX - but the bulls also have that to contend with as it sits at about 36.5 and 11% below the SMA 10. Note the last times the VIX was low and stretched we had the following closes:
December 26, 2008 SPX 873 VIX 43.38---10% below SMA 10;
January 6, 2009 SPX 935 VIX 38.56 ---8% below SMA 10;
January 28, 2009 SPX 874 VIX 39.66--- 15% below SMA 10;
January 29, 2009 SPX 845 VIX 42.63---8% below SMA 10;
April, 9, 2009 SPX 857 VIX 36.53---11% below SMA 10;
So just a few recent results of the stretched VIX and its pretty clear that a stretch lower has been a pretty good sell signal. And now we have a stretch lower on the VIX and a stretch higher on the SPX/NDX- any further moves higher will have me selling longer term stuff and adding to some shorts. But will wait for action to dictate.
Barrons pretty blah this weekend with lots of skepticism about the rally.
Some good links for today:
Mauldin a good read on the recovery that he doesn't see;
Some leadership during this rally;
Real Estate in the Hamptons- not so good;
TWITTER as a day trading help;
Pretty boring day with the exception of the Masters and of course the big Yankee game coming up in a bit vs. the Royals.
Some pretty good links to start the weekend-
And with the markets ripping higher one guy is a bit skeptical;
GS looking to pay back the GOV with more investor money- after grabbing a big piece of the TARP through AIG- are they also calling a top?;
FED asking for silence and not wanting the cat out of the bag until after earnings season;
GM Bankruptcy looks next up;
And New York with some big problems;
M2M not that big;
Who knew what When?;
Jeremy Siegel - How cheap are stocks?;
Some hard to believe GOP flip flopping;
Good day trading stuff from DR. BRETT;
There it was - the ramp in the last hour as the SPX climbed past the 850 resistance and closed at 856+. Next week more backing and filling probably.
Strong sectors- fins, real estate, brokers and homies while metals, utils and drugs lagged.
NYSE- 2375 net winners;
NAZ- 1850 net winners;
NDX - 90 GREEN;
OEX- 80 GREEN;
VIX- down 6% at 36.5;
Volume - 17/1 to the upside and decent at 1.7B in front of the holiday weekend;
RSI (2) at/near 85 on the SPX and folks are looking for pullbacks - trouble is when they come folks get to scared to buy- although this does feel like the real deal - and pullbacks will be bought big and quickly.
Markets have moved sideways for much of the midday trade but I suspect a push higher is in the cards although SPX 850 is starting to look like solid resistance.
Strong sectors- real estate, fins, homies, brokers and semis while utils and drugs lag.
NYSE- 2200 net green;
NAZ- 1750 net green;
NDX/OEX- 170/200 GREEN;
VIX- down 4.5% at 37;
TRIN- .72 with up volume about 10x down;
Major sign of a new bull market is buying pressure into the close - we have seen that several times now and I am expecting it today despite the 3 day weekend. So looking to buy before the close for a sell near the close.
Markets are ripping higher as the gap and go on strong gaps theory works yet again. The SPX +25 and the NAZ +50 after 35 minutes of trading.
Strong sectors include - financials, homies, gaming, shipping, trannies and real estate while metals, drugs and utils lag.
NYSE- 2380 net green;
NAZ- 1730 net green;
OEX- 95 GREEN;
VIX- down 2 at 37;
TRIN- .7 with upside volume about 15x the down;
Internals over all as strong as they get with 4650 green and 560 stocks red on the NYSE/NAZ;
BIGGEST WINNERS- WFC BAC COF USB JPM WYNN FLEX PCAR EXPE STLD SPLS JOYG;
BIGGEST LOSERS- JAVA COST BBBY WMT MO PM ABT SO MRK ABT CPB RAI;
Markets of course hitting the over bought levels at RSI (2) 80+ on most major market indexes- holiday tomorrow so maybe some backing and filling through midday and then another move higher in the last hour of the day.
Futures are trading higher yet again as over seas markets trend up- NQ Futures +5, ES +4 and YM +36- Gold and crude also trading in the land of green.
Ticker Sense with some fine analysis on what is working and how much it is working;
Steve Forbes on Squawk this morning with his usual reasons for why markets are down- blaming the usual suspects- short sellers, regulation and M2M- anything but analysis of the fundys;
The future of the +TICK rules ;
The FED from yesterday;
Barrons looking at the end of the rally;
Technically market looks like it has room to run to the SPX 845 area for now and that 815 level looks like huge support -
And has anyone ever seen this fellow Michael Parness who advertises all day on CNBC actually interviewed- anywhere- he claims he has been everywhere but I have never seen him anywhere except on his CNBC commercials - booyah CNBC.
Another winning day for the bulls as they continue to defend SPX 815 with vigor- the level was tested on the FOMC minutes sell off and it held big time. Also note how well the market behaved in the final hour- bears couldn't get it done and in came the big green bars.
The fins and real estate sectors were weak all day but had a fire lit under them in the final hour- as buyers showed no discretion.
NDX/NAZ very strong- with tech and semis doing well most of the day and the NDX closing with 90 green stocks.
Note also during the sell off that the market internals stayed way green all day despite the red turn in the DJIA and the move to flat by the SPX.
VIX- down on the day and trading a hair under 39;
TRIN- 1.09 with up volume about 3x the down;
RSI (2) levels near 50 on the SPX and 60 on the NAZ/NDX;
Expecting a choppy day tomorrow as volume probably dries up and some folks stay away with the double holiday on Friday.
Markets are higher on fairly light volume and banks/brokers are lagging-
NYSE- 1530 net green;
NAZ- 1075 net green;
OEX -80 GREEN;
VIX- down 4% and under 40 at 38.75;
TRIN- 1 with up volume 3x the down;
Gold higher by $8 and crude up $1.5;
Have been wanting to buy today but just don't trust this light volume move higher - despite the awesome internals- so looking for QLD once there is a decent pull back.
Stock twits pretty good but I doubt its worth $20 a month as it exists now - and the creators say that everything available now will remain free. Good enough for me.
Markets are higher with the NAZ/NDX/RUT out performing the SPX/DJIA as financials start to under perform again.
Strongest sectors- retail, gaming, reits, tech and semis while energy, metals, banks and bonds lag.
NYSE- 1225 net green;
NAZ- 1130 net green;
OEX- 75 GREEN;
NDX- 85 GREEN;
VIX- down 1% at 40;
TRIN- .79 with up volume about 4x the down;
Gold and crude down a bit;
A little leery of a rally with out the fins and MS GS both fell into the red after opening green- lots of folks seem to be focused on the up tick rule and I suspect it will be chatter for a few days but after than meaningless in light of penny spreads and 3x etf's that can be bought or shorted on either tick.
No trades yet and watching for an edge.
Futures are trading lower but well off their worst levels as PHM decides to merge with CTX.
And from the blogosphere:
Barry on a clear indicator that doesn't lead;
Fisher on the grim economy;
Roubini - still dour;
Trader Mike's trend lines;
Plummeting Manhattan rents;
Dreman out at Dreman;
SEC wants to further limit short sales;
Stress tests delayed for what?
Another good one on the Twitter list;
Markets closed lower and near their worst levels as the fins and real estate sold off in the last 60 minutes of trading.
Strongest sectors- metals, bonds, utils drugs and ags while gaming, real estate, homies and shipping lagged.
NYSE- 1720 net losers;
NAZ- 1375 net losers;
NDX/OEX- 13 GREEN STOCKS;
VIX- flat on a day the SPX lost 20 and the DJIA lost 185;
TRIN- 1.45 with down volume about 5x the up on light overall volume of 1.2B;
Support areas held at SPX 815 so not a completely terrible day for the bulls- and the TALF results do out later today - and I think folks expecting ugly numbers there-
Maria all excited about AA numbers and the beat- of course futures not exactly ripping higher on the news- so not likely a market mover tomorrow.
RSI (2) levels at near 20 on the SPX and with lots of support below (805) and the SMA 50 at/near 790 - a dip tomorrow can probably be bought - low risk entry with stops under the 50.
And after watching CNBC the last few days - who doesn't miss the guy in the picture.
Markets lower at the noon hour with the SPX -15 and the NAZ -29-
Sector strength in metals, bonds, ags, biotech and drugs while weakness clearly in gaming, homies, telecom, real estate and trannies.
NYSE/NAZ 2400 net losers;
NDX/OEX- 23 GREEN;
VIX- almost unchanged at 41.15;
Surprising as MS GS continue to trade to the north while the markets head lower.
Apparently some stuff happening in Detroit besides the Final 4;
Mortgage delinquencies not moving down;
Kellner with the labor pains;
SUN not so bright;
AIG- eh gonzo with the money I guess;
Also- for all the folks who insist the bottom is in - be aware that the SPX made a low of 770 on October 10, 2002 - ran up to 954 in early December and fell back to 789 in March of 2003.
So careful out there as history may not repeat but the charts may rhyme with 2003.
Markets open and they are trading at the lows of the day as I type. The SPX down 18 and the NAZ -31 -
Strong sectors include metals, bonds and utils while gaming, homies, trannies and real estate act the worst.
NYSE- 1830 net losers;
NAZ- 1240 net losers;
NDX- 6 GREEN;
OEX- 9 GREEN;
VIX- up all of three percent at 42.15;
TRIN- .75 with down volume about 5x the up;
Gold +11 at $881;
Crude down $1.7 at 49.4;
Still looking at the SPX 805 level as major support area with 815 as a probably temporary stopping area- so looking to short the pullups as long as the internals stay ugly.
Markets are set up for a lower opening this morning on the heels of some unsettling news about even more potential future losses for the banks.
The area on the SPX to watch - clearly the 800/805 level and after that the fiddy a little lower.
And in light of the recent market ramp - a sell off should not be surprising or unwelcome.
Which stocks have increased their market caps the most during the rally?
And if AIG had about 200 more of these- they could make the taxpayer whole.
The latest on the CDS front.
One guy whose equity is hitting a new high.
Old news now but Mayo's stock ratings.
Finally, why Howard is leaning short;
Markets closed lower but turned in a decent performance this afternoon as they hit their lows around 12:30 and slowly climbed back up all afternoon.
The SPX closed down 7 at 835 and the NAZ down 15 at 1607.
Strong sectors - defense, gaming and drugs while metals, banks and brokers lagged.
NYSE- 1170 net losers;
NAZ- 1055 net losers;
NDX - 35 GREEN;
OEX- 25 GREEN;
VIX- up 3% at 41;
RSI (2) levels at near 60 on the major market indexes;
Hate to say it but that was classic bull market action with the lower open and soft prices in the morning followed by a steady move up all afternoon-
Some strong action in tech with AAPL and RIMM very strong all day - V a little disappointing as it didn't ramp into the close and didn't act well all afternoon- still have a small position there as I don't think the stock is nearly done.
Markets are well off their worst levels and the NQ/NAZ seems to be rallying more than the others. Tech not involved in the Mayo sell call so we will see how this works out. SPX -15 and NAZ -32.
Strong sectors- gaming, bonds, drugs, defense and utils while metals, banks, homies and oil service lags.
NYSE- 1700 net losers;
NAZ- 1340 net losers;
NDX- 15 GREEN;
OEX- 18 GREEN;
VIX - higher by about 6% at 42;
TRIN- .93 with down volume about 3x the up;
Gold- still crushed at $870;
And some quick Links:
Nails- not hitting it out of the park;
The CNBC Q1;
The lastest fromWhitney;
Bill on the NDX 100;
Looking for the official definition;
I suspect we will see some further moves to the upside as most traders probably feel its a buy the dip market for now.
Markets start the day lower but are well off their worst levels as the SPX is -10 and the NAZ -28.
Strongest sectors- gaming, drugs and utils while metals, banks, semis and brokers lag.
NYSE- 1440 net losers;
NAZ- 1170 net losers;
NDX- 15 GREEN;
OEX- 18 GREEN;
DJIA - 5 GREEN led by GM MRK PFE JNJ KO- laggards AXP AA CAT BAC JPM;
VIX - up almost 7% at 42.35;
TRIN- .91 with down volume about 3x the up;
Initial dip was bought but heading lower again - gold getting crushed down a t$870- looking for more choppy action but just wondering if the lousy news that will likely come later in the week will now get sold -
Markets are set to open lower on the heels of some less than positive comments from the influential financial analyst Mike Mayo.
In addition- markets are way over bought and due for a correction or a some backing and filling.
How over bought?- RSI (2) levels over 90 on the major indexes and the SPX trading over 6% above the SMA 50.
In addition moving averages of the a/d lines also show severe over bought levels and a looming correction.