3.13.2007

GONE FISHING


BACK NEXT TUESDAY-

DIVING MARKETS



There you have it; right back down and the SPX is just about 5 points off the recent lows as the 1,390 level did not hold.

All sectors were in the red despite the fact that I heard "oil stocks are higher" on CNBC about an hour ago (who writes that copy). They were not higher and neither was anything else. The best groups, although all lower, oils, utilities, biotech and drugs. The worst were silvers, financials, brokers, metals, homies, trannies, real estate and small caps.

Winning stocks included T MMM QCOM EXPE MA ESRX SNDK and AMLN while the biggest losers were NTAP MRVL VMED VRTX LOGI LEH MS JPM MER RF and AXP.

Market internals- hah- 4,000 net red on the NYSE and NAZ and 6 in the green between the OEX and NDX.

The good news is the VIX spiked over 30% and trades at/near Feb 27 levels; overbought and near 110% of the 10 day SMA.

If you want to buy high and sell higher today was not your day but if you want to scale into equities and buy lower, opportunity may be near. Would it surprise anyone if a guest comes on bubblevision next week and says "buying last Tuesday was the easy trade." I suggest anyone wanting to buy equities start putting together their buy list as just about everyone will now expect a retest of the 1,373 lows. We may get the retest but I suspect a nice bounce from those levels.

I will be out of the office until next Tuesday on a little R and R.

NOON SHOOTDOWN


Markets are trading at session lows as the dippers couldn't get anything done and then news on mortgage delinquencies hit the markets.

The DJIA is lower by 115, NAZ -30 and SPX -13. European markets also selling off and down about 1%.

Oils and biotech are the best sectors while everything else is in the red with the worst being silvers, homies, metals, brokers, real estate, finanicals and small caps.

Key stocks are all red with GS giving back all the morning gains after the conference call.

Market internals continue to be very bearish with a net 3,300 net losers on the NYSE and NAZ.

The OEX/NDX indexes each with no more than 15 winners while the SPX with about 65 green out of 500.

Biggest winners include COP ETR T ABT BAX AMGN XOM QCOM EXPE and ESRX.

Biggest losers inclue NTAP MRVL MICC CTXS LOGI INFY LEH MS TXN TGT MER and DELL.

Volatility indexes way up with the VIX/VXO combo higher by 17%/11%. Both trade well under their 10 day SMA despite today's bounce.

Yesterday's 2 day RSI near 90 on both the SPX and DJIA was a pretty good signal along with the over sold volatility indexes. Just wish I would have sold more.

ENTER THE DIPPERS


Markets open lower but look to be bouncing as the "buy the dip" crowd seems to be getting a bit emboldened in light of the recent market bounce.

The DJIA is -63, NAZ -11 and SPX -6.

Strongest sectors include oil service, metals, gaming and biotechs while homies, reits, brokers and financials lag.

Market internals very weak with a net 1,350 red on the NYSE and net 1,050 red on the NAZ.

The OEX/NDX have about 20 winners each and the SPX has about 1 out of 5 in the green.

Strong stocks inlcude GS (beat the street), AMGN MA HAL MDT BHI and EXPE.

Weakest links include MRVL INFY FLEX ROST PCAR DELL TXN and MO.

The DJIA has 5 winners - T AA XOM CAT and MRK and leading lower are MO GM C JPM VZ and AXP.

For what its worth, Fib retracements as follows on the SPX:

38% at 1407; 50% at 1416; 62% at 1426.

3.12.2007

LATE CLOSE


Sorry about the closing info but had a few errands. Anyhow, the DJIA closed +42, NAZ +15 and the SPX +4.

Strongest sectors included Australia, semis, silver, defense, airlines, utilities, metals, internets and small cap value. Weakest were homies, gaming, oils, drugs and biotech.

Market internals close green with a net 1,000 green on the NYSE and 500 net green on the NAZ.

Currently, the NDX shows 3/2 green; OEX 5/4 green and the SPX about 50/50.

Strongest stocks included ORCL AES DOW EXC INTC MCD ESRX AKAM UAUA VRTX and ORCL while weak sisters included WYNN APOL FAST COST JOYG WY and TXN (after hours presumably).

The 1,410 line on the SPX was tagged and rejected again and I suspect before long we will make it to 1,415 line and the 50% retracement of the recent high to low. The 2 day RSI near 90 is also coming into play so be careful with the longs as I suspect there isn't much further to go in the short term.

HALF TIME


After a choppy morning trade, markets are all in the black as I type with the DJIA+12, NAZ+6 and SPX +1.

I suspected the markets would head a bit higher as the semis and the NAZ were leading and did not fall back as much as the SPX/OEX/DJIA indexes.

Strongest sectors include tech, semis, internets, AUSTRALIA, silver stocks, metals, airlines, defense, utilities and retail while homies, gaming, brokers and biotechs lag.

Market internals, in the green, with NYSE +420 and NAZ +150 while the big cap indexes show flattish internals with the NDX acting best.

The brokers still act doggey as many are concerned about the supprime exposure and this week's earnings releases. GS LEH MER MS BSC all solidly in the red while the exchanges are generally green.

The VIX is up about 2.5% and trades at about 10% below its 10 day SMA; so the long side looks ok for a day trade but not sure I would get aggressive with anything longer term. Recent highs at the 1,410 looks like a good sell area and if that doesn't work, the 50% retracement area at 1,415 comes into play.

THE OPEN


Markets open mostly lower with the DJIA -21, NAZ-1 and SPX -3 on the heels of more bad news out of NEW.

Strongest sectors include tech, internets, retail and semis while oils, homies, brokers and small caps are lower.

Key stocks are predominantly lower with all the brokers red while AAPL and ICE are two in the green.

Market internals started out green but have flipped the switch and now trade red 500 on the NYSE and red 100 on the NAZ.

The OEX is 35/65 green to red while the NDX is 45/55. The SPX is about 160/340 up to down.

Strongest stocks include ESRX AKAM AMLN JNPR SNDK XLNX AVP CBS LTD and ORCL.

Weakest include AMGN LEH MER MS SLB GS COF COP AIG WYNN PTEN MEDI and JOYG.

Volatility indexes a bit higher with the VIX/VXO combo looking to head back to the 15 level.

I continue to think the markets trade in a narrow range with 1,390 on the downside and 1,415 the top.