Markets closed lower and as is typical at/near the lows of the day. The SPX -15.5 and the NAZ-26.
Strength- ags, drugs, metals and utils while real estate, shipping, energy, banks and gaming lagged.
NYSE- 1550 net losers;
NAZ- 980 net losers;
NDX- 15 GREEN;
OEX- 20 GREEN;
VIX - higher by 5.5% and sitting about 5% above the SMA 10;
RSI (2) levels on major indexes at/near 30 with NDX acting best and DJIA/SPX the worst;
How now? I suspect a bounce early next week - and that gets sold and eventually we get to test the 735 level on the SPX - 50% FIB area.
SRS my big winner on the day as I was in and out a few times and held overnight from yesterday- it is now up 34% off the $53 low from yesterday- which compares nicely to FAZ which is up 46% off its low- FAZ 3X short fins and SRS 2X short Real Estate. Fun fun fun.
Markets moving down after a higher open and the biggest loser - the NAZ- FWIW- SPX also trading down as GE WFC JPM XLF all having bad days.
Strongest areas- drugs, utils, ags and metals while shipping, real estate, gaming, banks and trannies lag.
NYSE- 1,000 net losers;
NAZ- 730 net losers;
NDX- 25 GREEN;
VIX - a bit higher at 44.35;
TRIN- 1.04- down volume about double the up;
Gold down $4 at $956;
RSI (2) levels - already down in the 30's on the major indexes - remember this is still an ugly downtrend.
Looked like a choppy day at the open - but down we go with the next support area for the SPX at 775- of course next week we could see 735 as that is half way between the 666 low and the 800 high.
Markets are mixed and the action is very very choppy on this expiration Friday- may be a good day to hit the beach or the slopes here in snowy New York.
Strong sectors- ags, biotech, drugs, utils and tech while shipping, real estate, fins, gaming and energy lags.
NYSE- 400 net losers;
NAZ- flat internals;
NDX- 55 GREEN and sinking;
OEX- 45 GREEN;
VIX- up a smidge at 44;
TRIN- 1.05 down volume a bit more than up;
Gold down $4 at $956 and note Gartman is now long the yellow metal;
Crude- up a hair at $52.25;
Market seems to be losing steam as I type with the NDX acting the best and the SPX the worst in light of the crummy performance from the financials.
Probably an ugly choppy day - so not doing much. Long SRS as that continues to act well -
Equity futures trading near the flat line ahead of the open - fascinating talk on CNBC this AM - probably one of best I ever heard with Cooperman, Steinhardt and Gabelli-
Keeping an eye peeled on that RUT 2K Pivot - great tell yesterday.
Gapping up- PUK COMS RBS AAUK;
Gapping down- ERIC HBC SPG NOK LNC NLY PALM TOT BAC;
VIX +MORE on Put/Call hitting 10 month low;
DR. BRETT the TRADING COACH;
A cool FIB calculator;
The Dirty Dozen;
Best sectors off the lows;
Problems at the FIDDY;
Markets closed lower for the first time in what seems forever as the SPX lost 10 and the NAZ 8- There was same late day strength in tech land as MSFT closed higher by over 1%.
Strongest sectors- metals, energy, shipping and ags while banks, brokers and real estate lagged.
NYSE- flat internals;
NAZ- 250 net losers;
NDX - 40 GREEN;
OEX - 33 GREEN;
VIX working off the over sold level quickly as it jumps 9% at 43.66 and is at the SMA 10;
TRIN- 1.5 with down volume about 1.5X the up and heavy volume at almost 2b shares;
Gold - closed at $960 and up almost 2% on the day;
Oil- +5% at $51.4;
RSI (2) levels- also coming down quickly from the very over bought levels:
SPX 800 looks like the big area of resistance for now and any approach to there probably continues to get sold- Tomorrow maybe an acceleration of the sell off as REAL ESTATE found some real sellers late day today - could indicate some more problems for financials tomorrow - but one day at a time.
Looks like Dougie Kass about as hot as anyone gets on market calls- with the bottom call about two weeks ago and the "taking some profits" yesterday and "selling tech" this morning. Most are either bulls all the time or bears all the time - but Doug one of the few with added value.
Strong sectors- energy, shipping and trannies while banks, brokers, real estate and drugs lag.
NYSE- flat internals;
NAZ- 420 net losers;
NDX - 35 GREEN;
OEX- 35 GREEN;
VIX - higher by 7.5% at 43.1;
Crude - off the highs at $51.15;
Gold - off the highs at $955;
Dip buyers seem to be coming in to the markets as I type - I suspect failure and more downside action this afternoon.
Markets are trading mixed and the first pullback has been bought but I suspect the next pullback will get sold - note the down action stopped at the daily pivot of both the NDX and the SPX.
Strong sectors- energy, metals, shipping and ags while brokers, banks, drugs and real estate lags.
NYSE- 700 net green;
NAZ- flat internals
NDX/OEX- flat internals
VIX- up 2% at 40.85;
Gold $953 and this from the FIB QUEEN;
SPX 800 level looks pretty toppy and even Dougie now says "out of tech longs"- FWIW.
Futures moving on up in the pre markets with the ES higher by 3.75+ and the NQ 4+ Markets over bought with RSI (2) near 99 but who cares for now; Oh and the SMA 50 right here right now at SPX 803.
Gold 950+ and higher by $8 while crude is pretty rude higher by about $3 at $51.8;
Levels to watch- SPX 800/803/806 on the upside and yesterdays lows on the down side.
Some commentary on Mark 2 Market via Barry;
Getting the AIG Bonus back to the govt;
Gold - one bulls take;
What Ben's move could mean;
Not much talk about this little ditty;
And check out this GUY;
NUMBERS AND TIMELINES
Markets rallied on the heels of Ben's big announcement of the FED buying all kinds of interest bearing instruments sending rates down and inflation supposedly up as gold and metals rallied- as folks feared the full power of the printing press.
The VIX is back to 10% under the SMA 10 and the RSI (2) levels screaming sell as they trade near 99 on most major indexes.
AIG did get put on the back burner as the FED news dominated the afternoon chatter.
So is the rally for real and is the bottom in for now? No idea but it certainly has been a viscous rally off the bottom and the big bottom caller Dougie Kass did tell all the stocktwits.com folks this afternoon that his initial target has been reached and he is doing some selling.
For the FIB folks - the SPX high on January 6 was 944 and the low on March 6 was 666 - so of course the 50% retrace - 806 --and we did hit 803 today.
Finally, an interesting time line of recent events:
February 19 -(SPX 779) Meredith Whitney leaves to start her own firm (classic bottom?);
March 3- (SPX 696) Dougie Kass calls a/the bottom;
March 4- (SPX 714) President Obama says buy stocks now;
March 6- (SPX low 666) Cramer says worst case scenario for DJIA is 5,320;
March 14-( SPX 757) Roubini on the "suckers rally"
And if you never saw it and I didn't until now- Jimbo's predictions for 2008:
GS closes the year at $300;
AAPL reaches $300;
GOOG to reach $1,000:
MER JPM CL CLX WHR BDK get taken over by European companies;
Finally- he predicts that victims of foreclosure will lead a march on the White House and lay siege on the FED.
And the best of all- "But if Bernanke or a future Fed chair does cut rates meaningfully, here’s a sure bet: That’s the time to start buying."
Should be uneventful trading until we get the FOMC stuff near 2:00 so for what its worth- at/ near noon:
Strong sectors- tech, semis, banks, brokers and biotech;
Weak links- metals, energy, trannies and real estate;
NYSE- 380 net losers;
NAZ- 200 net losers;
NDX- 50 GREEN;
OEX- 30 GREEN;
VIX - flattish at 41.55;
TRIN- .49- Up volume almost double the down;
Some interesting links:
The Quant on Fed day and strength;
The UPTICK Rule;
Geithner on the Wind Down;
The REAL AIG scandal;
Freidman on Stewart;
First to go;
More on TWITTER;
Longs and shorts a little nervous this morning as the markets sell off a bit on the heels of the over bought conditions. SPX -7, NAZ -2.5 and DOPEY DJIA -88 as I type.
Strong sectors- tech, semis, biotech and telecom while real estate, metals and trannies lag.
NYSE- 940 net losers;
NAZ- 130 net losers;
NDX- 35 GREEN;
OEX- 25 GREEN;
VIX- higher by a hair at 41.6;
Up volume a hair less than down volume and the TRIN - .57;
Gold down 10 at $905 and Crude down about 2% at 48.35;
NAZ definitely faring the best with tech, biotech and semis leading while energy and real estate bringing up the rear with the DJIA - I am initially watching the Pivot Point area on the SPX at around the 769 area- I suspect if we fall under there the sellers may press the down side.
Markets moved on up as the early chop became a distant memory. SPX +24, NAZ +58 and DJIA +179.
NYSE- 1780 net winners;
NAZ- 1500 net winners;
VIX- down 6.6% at 40.8 and trading more than 10% below the SMA 10;
RSI (2) levels - as follows:
So yes- the markets are very very over bought and I saw resistance at/near the 775 level - lets see what happens tomorrow- Seems like an awfully big burst higher but what do they say about bear markets- yes the most viscous rallies-
In addition I see Luby on Twitter with a FAZ position over night and Swan calling for the highs of the week now- also - we seem to get choppy days after big trend days and that is what today turned out to be.
Also- check the QLD which is now about 50% off the lows and right out the SMA 50.
Market fooled lots of participants including this fish as we continued higher despite the late day sell off from yesterday.
Strong sectors- homies, oils, retail and gaming while metals, junk and drugs lag.
NYSE- 1050 net winners;
NAZ- 900 net winners;
NDX/OEX- 85 GREEN on each;
VIX- down 3.5% at 42.2;
Up volume 3x the down;
RSI (2) levels near 92 on most major indexes;
Looking for a little sell down this afternoon and we will see from there- if you look at the pivot points this AM - they worked quite well as the break on the SPX above the pivot was a pretty good tell for some higher prices.
SPX 775 looks like a pretty big line in the sand for the bulls and bears -
Markets are higher although it looks pretty choppy - with strength in the NAZ/NDX and weakness in metals, oils service and energy.
NYSE- flat internals;
NAZ- 300 net green;
NDX- 80 GREEN;
OEX- 55 GREEN;
VIX - flat at 43.5;
TRIN- .72- Up volume a bit ahead of down;
Seems like the markets found a lot of shorts leaning the wrong way - as folks expected the late day sell off to continue this morning - well its choppy-
As I said earlier- expecting more selling tomorrow as lots of folks have lots of gains to protect - and of course we are still in an ugly down trend.
Checking around for some links:
TIM thinking the BEAR is back;
March Madness meets pharma;
More defaults hit 20 year high;
Looking Bumpy per Mike;
Leveraged ETF performance from BESPOKE;
GS/MS missed it today;
Peanut allergy news;
Madoff's houses and boats;
Barry the TAX GUY;
My opening post I opined that the shorts may win today - well markets closed lower after being higher for most of the day with the SPX hitting a lofty level near 774- also the 50% retrace - between 875 and 666- FWIW-
Strong sectors- trannies, utils, oil service and shipping- laggards- real estate, gaming, semis, brokers and homies.
NYSE- 470 - net winners;
NAZ - 310 - net winners;
NDX- 20 GREEN;
OEX- 50 GREEN;
VIX- higher by by 3.25% at 43.75;
TRIN- 1 up volume about even with down and volume fair overall at 1.8 billion shs;
Markets finally sold off on the over bought levels RSI levels near 97- so not that shocked that market put in the inter day reversal- probably not a good omen for tomorrow as I suspect the market continues the sell off- End of day positions DUG SRS-
Markets chug higher with the DJIA/SPX leading and the NAZ/NDX lagging -
Strong sectors- trannies, shipping, banks, defense and energy while real estate, semis, metals and tech lags.
NYSE- 1933 net green;
NAZ- 890 net green;
NDX- 50 GREEN;
OEX 80 + GREEN;
VIX - flat at 42.75;
TRIN- .64- Up volume 7x the down;
Crude has flipped to green and it has dragged the energy complex with it;
Gold down $8 at 922;
RSI (2) levels - who cared when they stayed very low and who cares now that they stay very higher 97 or so on major indexes.
Lots of folks expecting resistance at 780 area on the SPX as it the area of a number of FIB retracement levels- Feb highs and March lows 875/666- so just FWIW- also the 2002 lows on the SPX coming into play - at/near these levels.
Markets have opened mixed with the banks and fins leading higher and techs/NAZ heading lower. SPX +6 and NAZ -6.
Strongest sectors- financials, banks, utils, shipping and retail while real estate, semis, ags, metals and tech lag.
NYSE- 1200 net winners;
NAZ- 560 net winners;
NDX - 35 GREEN;
OEX- 75 GREEN;
DJIA 21 GREEN;
VIX- flattish at 43;
TRIN- .63 with Up volume 4x the down;
Gold- down $9.5 at $921;
Crude down about $2 at $44.4;
WINNERS- C BAC NSC AVP WY USB WFC AMLN WFMI PETM JOYG CHRW AMGN;
LOSERS- SNDK FAST BIDU LAMR APOL MRVL ORCL DELL S GILD QCOM OXY INTC TXN SGP;
Weird market as the NDX is very weak while the DJIA/SPX hangs in with gains near 1%- I guess it can be a called a stalemate for now-
The Markets are very over bought in the short term with RSI (2) levels well over 95- guessing the gap gets closed and the shorts may win a bit today.
Equity markets for the year - brutal so far;
But, if the old story of semis being the leading indicator - we may actually be on to something decent- they are up on the year and out performing all the major indexes big time.
Way to play - SMH or the levered ETF USD- absolutely worth watching.
Bullish news for GOLD;
Another BUY indicator;
The Biggest bailout of all AIG;
A Sucker's Rally;
More learning from DR. BRETT;