8.31.2007

CLOSING TRIP


Markets closed higher but off their highs and a significant point loss in the SPX in the last few moments of trade as the 1480 level was soundly sold.


Strong sectors included retail, metals, homies, brokers, reits, trannies and oil service while gaming, utils, biotech and drugs under whelmed.


Market internals closed strong with 2380 net winners on the NYSE and 1300 net winners on the NAZ.


OEX 92 WINNERS- led by ATI MS HD TGT NSM NXY GS BNI CBS WFC; LOSERS- DELL HON VZ BA EK WMB HET S;


NDX- 85 WINNERS- led by NVDA LVLT NIHD MRVL PCAR RIMM UAUA ERIC INFY MCHP; LOSERS- AKAM KLAC BIIB NTAP GRMN DELL ERTS FISV LAMR S; Note also how the 1995 level on the NDX was sold right along with the SPX 1480.


IBD 100- 85 WINNERS- EXM ACH NVDA CF MR DRYS NOV PCLN GES GME; LOSERS- BTJ AIRM GMCR VIP GRMN SNDA HMSY CMED CPLA PCP;


VIX down 7% after ramping up in the final few moments as the mkts dropped.


Lots of sellers in the final few minutes and I guess some folks didn't want to hold equities during the Labor day weekend. I wanted to sell some futures toward the close but decided to hold and hopefully will get a better price next week. First resistance next week SPX 1480/1488 with support at the 50 day SMA on the NDX (1960).


AFTERNOON RAMP


Markets trade at/near their highs led by large caps/large cap value with the RUT being the under performing major market index.

Strongest sectors include brokers, metals, reits, retail, homies and oils while airlines, drugs and small caps lag.

Market internals continue to be very strong with a net 2300 winners on the NYSE and about 1200 net green on the NAZ.

OEX - 94 WINNERS led by ATI MS GS BNI HD TGT LEH SLB MER and CMCSA; LOSERS- EK DELL S VZ CSC AEP;

NDX -86 WINNERS- NVDA INFY NIHD ERIC PCAR LOGI RIMM LOW LBTYA MICC; LOSERS- AKAM BIIB NTAP DELL KLAC S;

IBD 100- 87 WINNERS- EXM ACH CF DRYS GES MA NOV MTL RIO SYNA- LOSERS- VIP CMED SPSS SNDA HMSY AIRM DWSN BTJ;

VIX down about 8% and trading at/near 4% below the 10 day SMA.

Markets are trading just under recent resistance with the SPX at 1477 and the NDX at 1986. I haven't made a decision yet whether to sell all my futures into an afternoon ramp (if and when) but I probably will trim it a bit. Also note the 2 day RSI approaching 80 as we attempt a run at the down trending 50 day SMA on the SPX.

W TO THE RESCUE


George W. Bush, the Democratic President from Texas gives the markets a lift as he attempts to "bail out" some sub prime borrowers/lenders. The markets like it and it also appears to have taken some pressure off Big Ben who may not now have to be so accommodating with an ease.


Strong sectors include metals, homies, brokers, oils, banks, reits and retail while tech, biotch and gaming lag.


Market internals very strong with 2375 net winners on the NYSE and 1475 net winners on the NAZ.


OEX- 97 WINNERS led by TGT LEH ATI RTN MER MS NXY GS COF WB; LOSERS- AVP HET PG;


NDX 87 WINNERS- led by RIMM NVDA GRMN ERIC MCHP PCAP AAPL NIHD BRCM; LOSERS- KLAC NTAP BIIB XRAY AMLN PDCO CKFR CDWC CELG CHKP;


IBD 100- 95 WINNERS- ACH MTL NOV FTK PCR TBSI ARGN CF GES; LOSERS- AIRM TKC ZUMZ SPSS CPLA;


VIX/VXO down about 6% and under the 10 day SMA.


The SPX is up about 15 as I type at 1473 and resistance appears to be near the 1480 level with the 50 day SMA at 1488 and 61.8 FIB level at 1485. The NDX at 1984 with resistance above at 1995/2000 and the 50 day SMA with support below at 1960. Overall, the markets seem to be in pretty good shape and ready to run to resistance where I bet the sellers and shorts will happily come in and top out the market in the short term.






8.30.2007

THE CLOSE


An interesting day in the markets as the DJIA meandered in a "tight" 140 point range beween 13,185 and 13,315. The NDX was strong most of the day after a down opening and also traded in a fairly mild 40 point range.


Strong sectors included reits, real estate, biotechs, defense, biotechs, techs and semis while banks, trannies, brokers, utilities and small caps lagged.


Market internals closed with about 700 net losers on the NYSE and 540 net losers on the NAZ.


The NDX internals were green with a hair more than 5o green led by TLAB CELG XMSR BRCM BIIB SIRI ESRX and SNDK. Losers included WFMI SHLD LRCX BBBY EXPD INTY MRVL and XLNX.


OEX- About 20 green led by DELL CPB BAX HAL RTN HD IP INTC and MMM. Losers- WMT NSC MS NSM C EXC LTD MER WB AEP S CBS.


IBD 100 - Half green led by VIP MTL EXM LAYN TNE NVT ZUMZ- Losers- ACH BTJ MW GSOL GPOR TBSI CYNO AIRM.


Clearly a tech driven market although a little disconcerting that SMH, which rallied all morning closed essentially flat. Other techs also reversed and closed red including MSFT KLAC GOOG BIDU and AMZN.


Poor performance again from financials such as BEN MA MI MTB TROW GS LEH CME MS and NYX.


I would not take a whole lot from today's action as most are waiting for Big Ben and probably more volatility.

AFTERNOON LULL


Markets are back near the flat line with NDX/TECH out performing while large cap value is lagging.


Strong sectors include semis, defense, tech, biotech, internets and real estate while banks, airlines, utils and oil service lag.


Market internals near the flat line on the NAZ/NYSE while the OEX shows about 30 winners and the NDX with about 60 winners.


WINNERS- TLAB CELG XMSR BRCM SIRI ESRX RIMM CSCO BAX INTC DELL HAL MMM RTN HD XOM VIP EXM LAYN MTL WFR DRYS;


LOSERS- WBD ACH GSOL MW BTJ GME EDU SNP WMS WNR GM WMT EXC MS ALL MER SB TWX WFMI SHLD BBBY MRVL LRCX;


VIX/VXO both up about 4%;


Looking for higher prices into the afternoon and probably next week as I suspect tech and the NDX will continue to drag the rest of the market along with it.

THE OPEN


Markets open mixed with the NDX higher and the other major indexes lower. Tech, semis and biotechs are leading while financials are of course lagging. Other laggards include homies, metals, utilities, real estate, internets and retail.


Market internals are red 965 on the NYSE (improving) and red 440 on the NAZ.


NDX :58 GREEN led by TLAB XMSR RIMM CELG AMAT AAPL SIRI JOYG BIIB GRMN;

LOSERS- LINTA CTSH SHLD MICC MRVL ORCL WYNN S VMED EXPE VMED;


OEX: 23 GREEN - WINNERS- DELL CSCO BHI HON BAX HAL DOW CSC ATI;

LOSERS- WMT MS WB TWX USB HIG MRK AIG DIS RF C MER;

IBD 100- 55 WINNERS- EXP VIP RIMM DRYS VSEA GTI AAPL NVT LAYN WFR;

LOSERS- ACH MW WBD GSOL BTJ GES PDA MA PCP AIRM;

VIX/VXO up about 45;

Strength in the NDX /TECH/SMH led me to dip in and buy some tech and some futures; for what ever reason the markets looks like it wants to go higher despite the crummy action in the financials. My guess is that if the NDX can build some headway it will drag the brokers/banks right along. STOPS AT 1430 on the SPX with an initial target near 1480.

8.29.2007

THE CLOSE


The markets go down the markets go up; hard to believe that the major indexes gained today just about what they lost yesterday. The DJIA closed +247, NAZ +63, and SPX +31.


Strong sectors included retail, oil service, oils, homies, semis, metals, small cap value and yikes - reits- laggards included biotechs, drugs, brokers and banks.


A little comeback in the financials as the action was good in GS LEM MER ICE NYX NMX WFC TROW MTB MI CFC BEN and AIB. Notable loser BSC.


Internals - 2385 net gainers on the NYSE and 1600 net green on the NAZ.


OEX- 96 GREEN - WINNERS- GM SLB INTC TGT ATI HD ORCL WMB RTN WY;

LOSERS- AEP MS PG WB WMT;


NDX- 96 GREEN - WINNERS - RIMM NVDA AAPL BBBY INTC GRMN MRVL MICC ISRG INFY;

LOSERS- JOYG PDCO ESRX IACI SIAL;


IBD 100- 96 GREEN- WINNERS -TKC ACH DRYS VIP SNP GME DWSN DIX RIMM GES ;

LOSERS- TTEC FTK ARGN SPEC;


VIX/VXO lower by about 11% and now trading about 6% below the 10 day SMA.


As mentioned earlier, I am not expecting much tomorrow or Friday as everyone gets a chance to catch their breath and digest the recent volatility. Remember, high volatility leads to low volatility. That is what I expect now, TRADING RANGE. 1430/ 1485 on the SPX, for a while anyway.

MIDDAY MARKETS


Markets continue to trade higher and have now gained back about half of what was lost yesterday. The action in the financials has also improved as GS AIB BEN CFC MI MTB TROW WFC LM ICE NYX NMX are all up 1% or better.


Strongest sectors, oil service (OIH up 25% for 2007), tech, silvers, semis, retail, metals and reits while biotechs and drugs lag. And don't mention anything to the shrewd CNBC anchors that crude is up $1.5 and the DJIA is up 100x that number. Hard to believe.


OEX and IBD 100 internals are very bullish with 90 winners on each; NDX with about 80 in the green while the NYSE shows about 2k more winners than losers.


WINNERS- AAPL NVDA GRMN RIMM INTC MRVL FLEX INFY BBBY SNDK SLB HD WBM GM ATI RTN HPQ ACH TKC SNP DRYS RIO CEDC DSX PCR;


LOSERS- TTEC TRAK SPEC SNDA HMSY ARGN ESI MA CPLA WB AEP MDT CPB MCD ALL MS JPM JOYG PDCO GILD BIIB CTXS IACI EXPE;


Volatility indexes way down with the VIX/VXO dipping about 7%.


OK, officially calling for range bound action between this afternoon and Friday as folks migrate away from the markets and leave their laptops home after being driven wacky by the markets over the last month.


THE OPEN


Markets open higher led by the NAZ and Small Cap Value. The DJIA +85, NAZ +18 and SPX +8.6.


Strongest sectors include metals, semis, retail, defense and oils while biotechs and financials lag.


Market internals net 1855 green on the NYSE and 1030 net green on the NAZ.


OEX: 83 GREEN - WINNERS- ATI GM INTC HD BHI MO WY EMC UTX AA;

LOSERS- WB COF LEH ALL HET S USB CAT TWX GS;


NDX: 80 GREEN- WINNERS- AAPL NVDA GRMN RIMM BBBY MRVL FLEX ADBE INTY CTSH; LOSERS- JOYG WYNN SIAL PDCO FISV BEAS EXPD ERTS INTU S LAMR;


IBD 100- 88 GREEN - WINNERS- ACH TKC LAYN DSX SNP SNHY VIP RIO MT CRNT;

LOSERS- HURC MA TTEC GMCR GPOR SPEC TRAK ESI HMSY;


VIX down 2% and trading at/near the 10 day SMA;
UP Volume about 4X Down volume;


Mixed messages again from the markets as the internals and tech look great while the banks/brokers refuse to cooperate. Red financials include BEN C MA USB BSC GS LEH MS;


Again, it will be hard for the markets to make headway with the financials acting so poorly.


8.28.2007

CLOSING LIMP



Markets again close at/near the lows as the banks and financials continue to stink up the board. DJIA -270, NAZ -60 and SPX -34.





Other bad sectors include homies, real estate, oils, defense, airlines and small cap value.





The bright side, we may be back to some support at 47 on the QQQQ, 200 day SMA at 2507 on the NAZ DOG- markets have turned around a few times there- also the 38% retracement level of about 1440 on the SPX.





Market internals about as bad as they get with 2400 net red on the NYSE and 1750 net red on the NAZ.





Volume at a bit over 1.1B - about 95% to the downside- hmmmm.





Every DJIA stock lower.





VIX up about 17% and a hair above the 10 day SMA and 30%+ above the 50 day SMA.





WINNERS- RYAAY XMSR CELG SIRI ADBE MRVL SNDK CI AEP ASEI SNDA;





LOSERS- ACH CF SNP DRYS CRNT RIO TBSI NILE CMED NVDA FSTR LEH ATI MS AA GS HIG JOYG NVDA MXIM GRMN;





Hard to believe that we are still about 525 points off the DJIA low from 12 days ago- just shows how far we have come so fast - for all those that thought they might have missed the bottom. Not sure we get back to the lows - too easy - but I suspect fed rate cut coming soon. They may not be able to take much more pain.



FWIW:

Two day RSI's:

SPX 12

DJIA 13

RUT 11

NDX 15

AFTERNOON TRADE


Markets continue to trade lower led down by the RUT and small cap value.


Strongest sectors include software, utilities, metals and biotech with homies, brokers, airlines and financials being the worst groups.


Market internals continue to be brutal with 2133 net losers on the NYSE and 1500 net losers on the NAZ.


OEX- 6 WINNERS- CI AEP S SO WMT HD- LOSERS- LEH ATI MS COF HIG EK F TXN AA;


NDX- 15 WINNERS- XMSR SIRI CELG MRVL RYAAY S ADBE JAVA XRAY SNDK;

LOSERS- MXIM NVDA BBBY GRMN JOYG EXPE RIMM NIHD AAPL INFY TLAB WFMI WYNN;


IBD 100- 6 WINNERS- ASEI SPEC CPLA GSOL MORN TRAK;

LOSERS- CMED ACH SNP PDA DK MA DRYS PCLN NILE CRNT DSX;


VIX up 8.5% and still under the 10 day SMA.


Financials continue to act horrible with LEH MS USB TROW CFC BEN AIB all down big.


XLF/IAI also down about 2% and maybe another entry point.



Major indexes may be nearing a buy area as 2 day RSI on most trade at/near 20 - a drift down to single digits may be an area to dip back in -

MORNING TRADE


Markets open and trade lower led down by homies, finanicals, brokers, airlines and oils. Big caps are out performing by going down less than the small/mid group.


NYSE internals -2125/ NAZ internals -1400;


OEX: 7 WINNERS- CI SO HD BAX MMM TGT PG - LOSERS- LEH COF MS ATI AXP EK USB BDK;


NDX: 10 WINNERS- XMSR SIRI MRVL SNDK RYAAY ADBE JAVA CELG XRAY CTXS ;

LOSERS- JOYG MXIM BBBY NIHD GRMN NVDA RIMM TLAB WYNN WFMI;


IBD 100 - 2 WINNERS- ASEI GSOL; LOSERS- ACH SNDA OII SNP MA PDA NILE DRYS HURC PCR;


VIX up another 7% and trades 5% below its 10 day SMA.


Technically, the SPX just broke thru the 200 day SMA which is 1457 and the next level of support may be the 38% retracement level at 1442.


I continue to say its gonna be tough for the markets to make upward movement with continued bad news coming out of the financials.


BEN C CFC JPM MA TROW USB IAI BSC GS LEH LM MER MS NMX all lower by 2% or more.




8.27.2007

THE CLOSE


Not much to say about today's trade except it was fairly uneventful, although markets did close at/near the lows of the day. The fact that was of most interest, the crummy market internals and the lousy action in the financials. Small Cap Value - the worst of the major indexes and down about 1.3% while the DJIA was the best and down only .4%.


Financials/Brokers/Xchanges that were lower by 1% or more included:

BAC BEN C CFC JPM MA MI MTB TROW BSC GS LEH LM MER MS ICE NYX. BSC and LEH really crushed.


Market internals closed with net 1400 losers on the NYSE and 900 net losers on the NAZ.


OEX: 20 WINNERS Including - HON CMCSA HD MO CSCO AA GD TWX BUD -

LOSERS- LEH EXC AEP ETR AES WMB GM NSM SO NXY EP JPM;


NDX 23 WINNERS- Including- DISCA JAVA WFMI NVDA PDCO EXPE CMCSA NTAP MNST ADBE; LOSERS- ROST SNDK TLAB UAUA ERIC YHOO DISH GRMN AAPL LBTYA INTU ALTR;

IBD 100- 23 WINNERS- Including - ACH FTK SNDA WBD CMED BIDU SNP CPLA DRYS NVDA CNYO; LOSERS- CRNT BTJ TEX SPEC GTI CMG UA EXM VSEA AFSI SPSS;

NYSE New Highs- 31 New Lows- 17.

NAZ New Highs- 41 New Lows- 46

VIX closes up about 7% and still about 15% below the 10 day SMA.

Probably more dull action through the Labor day Holiday, unless of course some ugly news drips out during the week.


MIDDAY TAKE


Markets are still lower at mid day but off their lows and "feeling" like they want to go higher. The RUT/MID group still the worst performers while the DJIA is the best major index.


Strongest sectors - retail, biotech, drugs, defense and tech while utils, homies, oil service, semis and metals lag.
Probably gonna be tough to rally with the financials lagging again as all on my screen are red.


Market internals still crummy with 1300 net losers on the NYSE and 800 net red on the NAZ.


IBD/OEX/NDX internals all about the same with less than 30 winners on each.


WINNERS- ACH SNDA CMED FTK DRYS BIDU HON HD MO CMCSA BAX IP DISCA WFMI JAVA NVDA PDCO JOYG;


LOSERS- AKAM TLAB SNDK DISH UAUA LRCX RYAAY EXC AEP LEH ETR AES SO NSM CRNT BTJ GPOR SNHY AFSI TTEC FLIR;


VIX still up about 8% and 14% below the 10 day SMA.


The NDX, the best performing major index for 2007 seems to have hit resistance at the 50 day SMA near the 1958 level. Also, keep in mind that support exists at the 50% retracement on the SPX at 1464, so lots of cross currents.


Also a week which should be fairly slow so the technicals will probably be good numbers to follow.


THE OPEN


Markets start the day lower with the RUT and Small Cap Value being the worst of the indexes.


Strongest sectors include retail, internets, trannies and big cap biotech while utilities, semis, financials, banks, metals and brokers lag.


Market internals are red 1100 on the NYSE and red 820 on the NAZ.


Volatility indexes- up 8% on the VIX and the roller coaster ride continues.



OEX: 20 UP 80 DOWN;


WINNERS- MO CMCSA HD ATI AA BAX HNZ ROK DOW FDX;


LOSERS- AEP LEH ETR EXC SO CBS GM JPM TXN CCU RF NSM;


NDX- 20 UP 80 DOWN;


WINNERS- DISCA WFMI JOYG NVDA BIIB CTSH EXPE JNPR AMZN;


LOSERS- LRCX MRVL DISH SNDK AKAM XMSR ERIC TLAB GRMN LINTA INTU ALTR;


IBD 100- 34 UP 66 DOWN;


WINNERS- ACH SNDA CMED DRYS BIDU PCR GES PRFT NVDA VDSI AIRM CPLA;


LOSERS- FLIR EXM AFSI VSEA GMCR ESI MORN GPOR ATN EDU DWSN;


An ugly start for the banks, brokers, exchanges and asset managers which doesn't give me great confidence of a big upside day. AS I scroll down the screens, seems like retail has some unusual strength with CROX CWTR GES HD M TIF WFMI all green.


On another note- look which value guy is buying WYNN and GOOG. Not sure where the great value is with WYNN but who am I to argue with that guy.