Weekend Update

Some good stuff in Barron's this weekend including bullish stories on WYE CCL DRYS F AEP PCG DUK CMS WR WEC;

A nice article on Aussie banks - which are supposedly cheap and most are included in the EWA etf;

Kopin Tan quotes John Roque in his Trader column:

" The pool of New York Stock Exchange stocks above their 200-day averages had shriveled to 13% on Jan. 22 but has since expanded to 30%. When this indicator turns up, a market rally usually follows,says John Roque, Natixis Bleichroeder's managing director. He thinks the indicator could reach a level in the low-40% range and the S&P 500 could work its way toward the 1415 ballpark."

A list of defensive mutual funds just in case the bottom is not in - FAIRX HSGFX GLRBX BJBIX KGSCX LSBDX PRPFX BRGRX WGRNX;

Some IBD 100 stocks:

1- GHM

4- POT

11 -PCLN

15-MA

16-MON

19-BIDU

35-RIG

51-CELG

64-DE

97-APA

100-NOV

In the most recent issue of Standard and Poor's Outlook, Undervalued Growth stocks- (PE's lower than the SPX 500- ANF AEO BHI BBY MTW ME NE SPN TEX;

And the High-Quality Capital Appreciation Portfolio- BUD ADP BDX CVS DIS BEN GD IBM JNJ KMB NKE PEP PG SIAL UTX;

COH was also added to their "Top Ten Portfolio" because of valuation;

Standard and Poor's with an updated 2008 EPS number at $96.74 and a PE of 14.16;

MSFT putting the pressure on YHOO;

More on the TICK;

And more on the TICK;

A Golden Opportunity?

Bullish Breadth;

Excited about Pharmas?

The Slope of OIH!!!

Barry on Job Creation;

Ahead of the Tape;

The Close

Markets closed flat after starting the day at/near the lows and trading up during the midday.

Strong sectors included ags, biotech, oils, internets and drugs while banks, real estate, brokers and reits lagged.

NYSE 320 net winners;

NAZ 140 net winners;

NDX 60 GREEN;

OEX 55 GREEN;

VIX- lower by 3%;

Up and Down volume about even - overall very light at 1.2B shares compared to a typical 1.7B;

SPX seems to have run into resistance at/near 1380 - the 38.2 FIB retracement level and the 90 day SMA/late February highs. Seemed like an appropriate time to sell in light of the weekend and the large move on the week.

I expect consolidation and then higher prices next week as it still appears that folks want in on these markets- just not on a Friday afternoon.

A pretty pretty good decade so far for the folks from Chappaqua;

And another take on Bottom or Bear market rally;

NOON CLIMB

Markets have shaken off the crummy jobs number and all the major indexes are trading in the green. Rick Santelli on CNBC gave a pretty good reason, the numbers are now unimportant because the FED has your back and has taken the risk out of owning stocks. Probably true.

Strongest sectors- ags, oil service, oils, utils, internets, drugs and defense while gaming, banks, telecom and homies lag.

NYSE- 650 net winners;

NAZ- 333 net winners;

NDX- 60 GREEN;

OEX-65 GREEN;

IBD-75 GREEN;

VIX- lower by 4%;

Up volume 3/2 Down volume;

OIH EWZ now in positive territory for the year and probably going much higher before too long. Big tech acting well with nice gains in GOOG AAPL BIDU INTC -

Brokers have also turned green while the big banks are still lagging and red.

NAZ/NDX/MID continue to lead higher and as long as that is the case, the markets probably continue up to the 1390 level on the SPX.

The Quant with some more VIX stuff;

Barry on the real jobs story;

More bullish stats from BIG;

Straight Talk Express?

The Open

Markets open lower led down by the DJIA -40, NAZ -1 and SPX -1.5. MID's higher and RUT's lower.

Strong sectors- oils, ags, biotechs, utils and metals while all the big banks and brokers are red in addition to gaming, airlines, telecom, real estate and retail.

Key stocks- 17 out of 40 red- leaders- POT MON GOOG MTW BIDU BG CAT- losers- NVDA WYNN C MGM UA LVS BAC TIF;

NYSE- flat internals;

NAZ -100 net red;

NDX- 50 GREEN;

OEX- 50 GREEN;

IBD -68 GREEN;

Still bullish but looking at the NAZ/NDX as C JPM MA MTB USB V WB WFC BEN GS LEH LM MER MS TROW all trading red- NAZ- winners include GOOG AAPL RIMM APOL BIIB NIHD EBAY GENZ ERTS WFMI GILD;

And check out the NEWSFLASHER site- great aggregator;

TAKE THIS JOBS REPORT PLEASE

So there it is, with all the CNBC happy talk about better than expected jobs numbers, eh no, worse as the number came in at -80K v -50K consensus and a near zero consensus of the CNBC group.

Just don't understand the point of having Kudlow on TV- do we wonder if he will be optimistic and bullish- does he ever change his views on anything- How bout more Santelli/Lehman/Technicians;

My guess is the markets get bought as it seems like dipperss have been in the weeds of late.

In the news:

LEH raising estimates on NYX/NDAQ;

S Bernstein upgrades BHP RTP AUY;

Gappin up- MOS OMEX SHPGY AZN ZOLL CPL LMC ING FSLR POT BHP MON ISRG AES ATI TNH AGU;

Gappin down- DMAN RVBD GOLD AU HMY DELL LWSN KSU TKC NIHD EXPE CTSH MER MS;

Random Amusement!!!

The bull;

The Nonpaying;

The short term top;

The slope;

The not popular;

The we've Bottomed;

The All-Time Low;

The whopper;

The WORKINGS;

The 10K;

NOON MOVE

Markets are moving higher on the heels of boring testimony by Dodd etal regarding BSC/ JPM and the fix. The DJIA +64, NAZ +12 and SPX +8.

Strongest sectors- ags, china, semis, brokers, reits and real estate while retail, defense, utils and biotech lags.

Key stocks - 27/40 higher led by RIMM BG MON POT NYX- losers- AMZN GOOG CAT NVDA MGM MCD UA CELG;

NYSE- 600 net winners;

NAZ- 85 net winners;

NDX-55 GREEN;

OEX- 60 GREEN;

IBD -70 GREEN;

WINNERS- CF MOS RIMM AGU CLR NIHD SNDK TLAB BRCM LRCX JOYG AA F NYX AAPL GM C MER LEH TXN;

LOSERS- CSCO CPB GOOG AMZN CAT XRX KFT CSC LOGI GRMN CHRW XRAY LAMR FLEX URBN ISYS KEX AIRM EXPO;

VIX- flattish;

Up volume 2x Down;

All of a sudden emerging markets and Australia/Latin America getting a bid;

SPX moving on up and next stop for resistance should be at/near 1380 - the spot of the 38.2 FIB and the SMA 90. Also the highs from Feb 1 at/near 1395. My longs from this morning looking pretty pretty good as for now its a buy the pullback market.

The Open

Markets are trading lower but well off their worst levels. Best performing major indexes include MID and NDX. The DJIA is -17, NAZ -6 and SPX -2.

Strongest sectors include ags, oils, internets, reits and semis while retail, homies, gaming and metals lag.

Key stocks- 15/40 higher led by RIMM POT MON BG MA and MTW while AMZN NVDA MGM UA GOOG CELG and GS lag.

NYSE- 220 net losers;

NAZ- 330 net losers;

NDX-40 GREEN;

OEX -30 GREEN;

IBD -65 GREEN;

VIX higher by 2%;

Up and Down volume about equal;

Gold lower by $5;

Crude near $104;

Markets seem to be bouncing from this initial support area near 1360 on SPX- next level near 1340 with resistance in the 1385/1390 area. I have put on some longs - and will look to add on more weakness. I don't think the bulls will throw in the towel quite yet.

The Trading Day

I was out most of the day taking care of some personal business but not surprised to see the market selling off this afternoon. Plenty of reasons why the rally would start to reverse including- the general trend is down, FIB 38.2 retracement at/near 1380, recent resistance (end of Feb) near these levels, volatility indexes don't go to zero and in the short term the markets were very over bought with RSI (2) levels earlier today at/near 90.

Anyhow, strong sectors included oils, metals, utils and semis while airlines, ags, telecom, banks and drugs lagged.

NYSE/NAZ breadth- a positive slant;

NDX-50 WINNERS;

OEX-50 WINNERS;

IBD -60 WINNERS;

VIX- higher by 3.5% and about 9% under the SMA 10;

Up volume a bit ahead of Down and light overall;

Gold +$21 to $908+;

Crude +$3.8 and near the $105 line;

EURO- almost 1.57;

10 year Bond- 3.58% yield;

Dr. Brett with some good day trading stuff;

The Quant with more good stuff;

And of course Kass nailed it;

With the recent SPX range between 1270 and 1390 it looks like a good time to flatten out if your very long and maybe buy some puts or put out some shorts as I don't expect this range to disappear real soon. Buying levels- oh the 1340 level which is at/near the 50 SMA.

The Rip

Leaving a bit early today and will be out most of tomorrow.

Some great work at the Daily Option Report on the TICK;

VIX+More on the VXV V VIX;

Real estate in the HAMPTONS;

A signal on the Baltic Dry?;

Kirk seeing the Range;

Playing a Recovery;

And how is this for the day XBD +7.4% BKX +6.3% IAI +7.7% WYNN +8.5% LEH +17% MER +12.5% GS +6.5% CME +6.6% NYX +6.5% CFC +11.5% C +9.9% FXI +6% SOX +4%

Kind of comical listening to Maria et al all giddy on big up days- and oh so depressed on the downers;

Noon Move

Back to the March 25 highs near 1360 on the SPX and don't be surprised to some selling at /near these levels. Question everyone has - does this last /is the bottom in? Going out on the limb here- NO IDEA- bad news could come back tomorrow from the Wrestlers wife- or somewhere else.

Commodity DBA- may be worth a dip near here as seems to be making a double/triple bottom near these levels.

USO also could be good here as it seems to have a floor near the $100 level on crude.

VIX down more than 11% and with the DJIA up 300+ I am not looking for many more points higher this week. I suspect we get some comments like "too far too soon/ financials still have lots of bad news"/etc etc.

Morning Movement

Markets are way higher on the heels of the good news in Europe and slumping commodities. The DJIA +240, NAZ +45 and the SPX +25.

Best performing sectors include brokers, banks, insurance, airlines, semis and retails while oils, metals, ags and drugs lag.

Key stocks- 37/40 higher led by C MER MS WYNN BAC AMZN GS ISRG MA and NYX- losers- MON POT PM BG;

NYSE- 4.5/1 WINNERS;

NAZ-3/1 WINNERS;

NDX-95 GREEN;

OEX-90 GREEN;

IBD- 60 GREEN;

WINNERS- ANSS TKC PCLN BLK EDU AZZ SNDK AMLN AKAM HANS WYNN LRCX EXPE LEH C RF MER MS S COF JPM AIG VZ GS;

LOSERS- MO OXY AA SLB CVX COP JOYG YHOO STLD FWLT HAL CCU ABT PEP AA SLB WMB CVX EP MOS TISI AUY BVN KWK CF CLR AGU HOS;

VIX- down 9.5% at 23.2- and 10% below the SMA 10;

Up volume 4X Down volume;

The 50 SMA on the SPX in the rear view mirror once again and the financials are flying high as traders/investors seem to think the worst is behind them. Only time will tell- but it does look like a day to buy pullbacks as it doesn't look like this market is going to fall back big today. Tomorrow another story as the VIX is getting over sold.

And congrats to those who bought the 1310/1315 pullback.

Before the Open

Markets are set to open higher on the heels of higher prices in Europe as their banks write offs are less than expected.

Crude trading down $1.5 while gold is off $26 to $897 as the dollar strengthens while the EURO weakens.

The 10 year Bond is trading at/near 3.51% and if folks decide they want out of low yield bonds into more risky stocks- it could be a rip higher.

The futures on the SPX are pointing to an open near the 1340 level which is a hair above the SMA 50- so it will be interesting to see if it holds above those levels.

In the pre markets-

GS +3.3% LEH +10% MER +6%WB +3.7% HES +8% RIMM +2.5% C +6% JPM +4%;

MARCH PUNCHED- UGH

The quarter is done and lets see where that bull market was for the last 90 or so days:

SPX -9.9%

DJIA -7.55%

RUT -10.2%

MID -9.2%

NAZ -14.5%

NDX -14.1%

DBA +10.5%

DBC +13.34%

GLD +9.6%

SLV+16%

XLF -14%

BKX -11%

XBD -25.5%

GS -23%

CME -31.6%

NYX -29.7%

C -27%

BAC -8%

AAPL -27.6%

GOOG -36.3%

RIMM -1%

SMH -8.4%

DRG -12.8%

RMZ +1%

IYR -1.5%

XAL -22%

Ugly everywhere, tech, financials, drugs except for the commodities and they may take their beating now. Maybe we get some good news some time soon.

The Close

Markets closed higher but the last 2 or 3 minutes of tradings saw some fierce selling as the DJIA lost almost half the gain in that time period. The DJIA +46, NAZ +18 and SPX +7.5.

Sector strength homies, biotech, airlines, brokers and telecom while metals, ags, drugs, defense and banks lagged. Small cap value and mid caps did very will.

NYSE- 750 net winners;

NAZ-534 net winners;

NDX 70 GREEN;

OEX- 80 GREEN;

IBD- 60 GREEN;

Heavier volume at 1.5B with up about 2X down volume;

VIX- down .5% while VXO down 6.75%;

Not many folks sad to see this month go by the boards as the SPX closed above recent 1315 support at 1323. Tomorrow another day and hopefully better action as today was pretty depressing despite the higher close. Just seems as every time the markets look like they are getting going- they fall right back down.

With all the fund redemption's and all the money invested at 1 to 3.4% in various treasuries - it seems like they are is a lot of fuel on the sidelines - if there were some good news to get it going.

MId Day Check

Markets are trading higher a bit after noon with the DJIA +61, NAZ +14 and SPX +8. CRUDE has taken an early swoon and is now trading down to $102+ or lower by over $3.5.

Strongest sectors include brokers, homies, airlines, biotech and reits while metals, ags, drugs and defense lags.

NYSE- 670 net winners;

NAZ- 400 net winners;

NDX -70 GREEN;

OEX 80 GREEN;

IBD 50 GREEN;

VIX FLAT;

VXO down 5.5%;

Up volume 2X Down volume;

The 1315 retracement level on the SPX is holding so far as the markets seem to be moving up on the lower crude. Funny how the brokers are the best sector on the last day of the quarter-not sure if big funds etc want to show big positions there but who knows.

OIH was up about $5 earlier but is now just about flat on the day;

Still sitting on my hands today waiting - maybe buying the next pullback for a day trade.

The Open

Markets are trading higher after an initial dip. The DJIA +26, NAZ +17 and SPX +6.

Strongest sectors- oil service, homies, biotech, semis, brokers and gaming while the drugs, internets and trannies are lagging. Congratulations to Jim Cramer for constantly recommending SGP - which is down 25% as I type on the heels of the lousy Vytorin outcome- MRK a hair better but still way down.

Key stocks 27/40 higher led by PMI NVDA DECK CELG WYNN ISRG TIF CAT AMZN- lower are CME ICE UA BG RIMM C POT BIDU;

NYSE- 770 net winners;

NAZ- 630 net winners;

NDX-75 GREEN;

OEX-63 GREEN;

IBD-65 GREEN;

WINNERS- CCH ROS CLR EXPO ISYS WFT FSTR VRTX SNDK GILD DISCA APOL S ABT WB BHI JPM SLB ATI CAT;

LOSERS- ANSS TKC RBN TISI CTRP SDA FMCN AKAM GRMN YHOO UAUA EBAY MRK AA C BMY TYC MER CL LEH WFC;

VIX- trading up - seems weird on down days it has been and today its up;

Up volume a bit more than Down volume;

Gold up $9 to $940; Crude up 30 cents to $106; EURO over 1.58;

Looks like the 1315 line has been bought - not sure it lasts and am holding the powder dry so far.

THE BARRON'S

In Barron's this weekend:

Danger for the commodity longs as the commercials are more heavily short than ever before;

Generally bullish on the MO split up;

Dick Arms is bullish as he notes the big uptick in volatility-

"huge volatility is associated with market bottoms, not tops. When volatility spikes to the levels seen recently -- levels that have prompted even the nightly news anchors to wag their heads in disbelief -- it is usually time to buy, not sell.

Just how volatile is today's Dow? An elementary way to measure volatility is to calculate the daily percentage change, either positive or negative, in the price of the DJIA, using a moving average of this change to smooth the data. I used a 10-day moving average, which I called the Absolute Percentage Change indicator, or APC, and graphed the results since 2000, comparing them to a chart of the Dow over the same period. Then, to check the validity of my results, I charted the APC since 1940.

The peaks and troughs in all my charts tell an interesting story: Huge volatility isn't unique to today's market, and often occurs just ahead of a substantial rally.

The APC currently is at a five-year high of 1.63. Investors haven't been so apprehensive since driving it to 1.70 in March 2003, just before the start of the five-year bull run. Yet, while the Dow's recent moves may seem extreme because of the size of the numbers, the indicator hasn't come close in the past 18 years to matching its October 1987 peak of 7.08 (meaning the Dow swung more than 7% a day, on average, over a 10-day period). This, too, occurred as stocks reached a bottom.

Generally, any time the APC moves to the neighborhood of 1.5% it is time to start buying. In bear markets, the indicator tends to reach an extreme above 2%, while in bull markets a move above 1% usually is a rare and timely buy signal."