CLOSING SUPPORT

Markets closed higher after bouncing around between up 100 and down 50 finally closing up 67. The SPX was down near 1,444 and closed up 7.5 near 1,459 and comfortably above the 1,450 support line.

Strong sectors- oils, internets, metals, emerging markets, tech, gaming and drugs;

Weak sectors- homies, airlines, real estate, trannies, brokers and banks;

Key stocks- 27 out of 40 in the green led by GRMN RIMM LVS VMW POT WYNN UA BG NVDA and MCD; LOSERS- BIDU MER C MS KLAC GS ISRG CAT TIF INTC and SMH;

Market internals- NYSE-350 net red- NAZ-220 net red;

NDX 55 GREEN;

OEX 57 GREEN;

IBD 100- 72 GREEN;

WINNERS- BPHX FMCN STP SDA GSOL PDA GRMN LVLT VRSN EXPE YHOO RIMM APOL HPQ QVP MMM NXY CSCO ATI SLB ORCL;

LOSERS- FDX EK GM WFC MER TGT HON CCU WB UPS C KOP GLNG BIDU CMG FSTR ININ MDR SNHY CHL YGE GME SBUX ATVI NTAP XMSR ADSK SEPR;

VIX down 2.57 points at 25.5 and oversold /a few % under the 10 day SMA;

The key technical levels held at the close yet again as the SPX finished above 1,450; the NDX closed nicely above the 2,025 level and IWM above 76 (CLICK ON CHART). I suspect next week will be a bit better for equities as we come to an even more seasonally strong time for equities.

RSI (2) on major indexes/ETF's:

SPX-48

DJIA 53

NDX 63

COMPQ 53

IWM 18

OIH 58

XLE 59

THE REAL WATCH LIST

Markets are all over the board yet again as we the DJIA has flipped back to green and the NAZ/SPX continues to trade on both sides.

My take, watch big cap tech (AAPL GOOG BIDU RIMM VMW CSCO) and the breadth. The NYSE/NAZ internals show well over 1,700 net red and unless those numbers start to improve, the major indexes will probably disappoint the bulls at the close.

The brokers and banks again trading heavy and that won't help either as BAC C JPM MA MTB WB WFC BSC GS LEH LM MER and MS are all red.

Also, the area to watch on the NDX is the 2,025 level, support yesterday and the 50% retracement between the high on October 31, at 2,240 and the low on August 16, at 1,806.

OPENING LOOK

Futures were sold at the open and most major indexes have flipped to red as we all must have forgotten that it is Friday. The DJIA is -30, NAZ -17 and SPX -4.5. The RUT continues to under perform as is trading down more than 1.2%.

Strongest sectors- oils, metals, large growth, tech, utils and drugs;

Weakest sectors- China, airlines, real estate, trannies, homies, brokers and financials;

Key stocks- 50/50- WINNERS- GRMN WYNN MTW MCD LVS XOM KO PG; LOSERS- RIMM BIDU MS AAPL C MER ISRG CAT;

NYSE -1,000 net losers;

NAZ- 960 net losers;

NDX- 35 WINNERS;

OEX-40 WINNERS;

IBD 100- 45 WINNERS;

BIG WINNERS- STP SDA PDA MBT HDB ITU AVP HPQ BAX CVX MCD NXY CSCO BHI T XOM GRMN EXPE INTU PAYX WYNN LVLT CTSH JAVA;

BIG LOSERS- SBUX RIMM NTAP ATVI UAUA AMLN FAST XMSR FDX EK WB WFC UPS TGT MS AA ININ KOP GME BIDU GSOL SNHY CHL GLNG HMSY;

VIX- surprisingly down 1% and about 5% above the 10 day SMA;

Market is below SPX 1,450 and what appears to be solid support. If we close below we may have quite a selloff on Monday morning.

Also, the action in big cap tech is again quite disconcerting as RIMM has solidly broken par, GOOG is quickly heading to a 5 handle and under its 50 day SMA, AAPL sinking to the 150's and BIDU under 300.

BTW, look at these green stocks- KMB KO MCD MO PEP PG LVS WYNN SGP WLP JNJ ABT and the oils and metals- HMMMMMM.

PRE MARKET THUNDER

Markets are poised to open higher despite this depressing statement out of GS "slump in global credit markets will force banks, brokerages, and hedge funds to cut lending by $2 trillion, triggering the risk of a substantial recession in the U.S." Losses from record foreclosures from subprime lending using a "back of the envelope calculation" may be as high as $400 Billion according to GS chief economist Jan Hatzius. Well, they could be correct but don't forget that a year or so ago GS forecasted a $100 price for a barrel for oil so who knows.

FDX lowers guidance for Q2 from $1.6 -$1.75 to $1.45-$1.55;

Also, lots of discussion this AM on CNBC about FED rate cuts going forward- Consensus is market participants are expecting cuts to continue and if they don't we have another big down draft in the market- My guess is they will as Ben won't the moniker " I didn't prevent the crash of 07/08."

How bout this- Fed's Krozner says oil prices may put "upward pressure" on inflation;

Gapping up- GRMN DSCO PBR DRYS LDK AMD CFC YHOO TOT BIDU RTP CSCO FCX EMC HPQ.

Looks like SPX 1,450 will hold and the next target on the upside is 1,474, the 50% retracement line- after that -50 day SMA at 1,484 and then 1,490, the big resistance number from earlier in the week and the big support area before the recent down draft.

THE CLOSE

Another difficult day for the bulls as the DJIA fell 122, NAZ -26 and SPX -19. RUT again the worst of the group as it closed down 1.4%

Some important areas seems to have held on the close such as the 61.8 retracement level on the SPX at 1,450 which also happens to be the lows of last week. CLICK ON THE CHART. On the NDX, the 50% retracement level at 2,024 also held.

Not sure how much longer these support levels hold as Friday's have not been kind to the markets during the past few months.

Market internals - ugly all day on the NYSE/NAZ, and the crummy action in the financials should have hinted to any longer term market watcher that accelerated afternoon selling was in the cards.

We are only 10 off the Monday lows on the SPX, 140 above on the DJIA and about 40 on the NDX. At this point I am not that optimistic that these lows will hold as that 10 year Treasury at 4.16% is giving a sell stocks recession en route hint, (for now).

MIDDAY SNOOZE?

A brutal day in the markets as the major indexes seem to be locked in a tight trading range. The DJIA is -29, NAZ -13 and SPX -9. RUT and Value stocks far worse with losses near the 1% mark.

Sector winners- utils, biotechs, drugs and trannies while metals, banks, oils, brokers, airlines and insurance are the biggest losers.

Key stocks- generally lower led down by - RIMM POT VMW MS C GS JPM BAC GRMN KLAC and NYX while CELG TIF COST ISRG ICE and AAPL are green.

Internals- much worse than the indexes with 2,700 net losers on the NYSE /NAZ.

NDX -50 WINNERS- PETM VMED GENZ AMLN QCOM CTSH PDCO AMGN CELG ESRX;

OEX -40 WINNERS- DIS MRK WY SO KO RTN IBM FDX NSC PG;

IBD 100- 20 WINNERS- BHPX STP GME CTRP TISI ESRX VSEC TELOZ YGE ESI DLB;

I suppose there is a chance that we could get another ugly sell off in the final hour as all the recent winners are the biggest losers on the day. Doesn't give me the warm fuzzy feeling when financials, metals and oils are the market losers and the consumer non durables are the winners.

Range on SPX 1,490 to 1,450 and a fallout below those levels could signal a very ugly day.

OPENING LOOK

Markets are trading near the flat line as I type with one interesting development. AMAT supposedly disappointed last night and is now trading higher along with the SEMI group. This is one group that has gone straight down over the last few months and may now be putting in the bottom.

Strong sectors include biotech, internets, semis, homies, trannies and utils while metals, banks, real estate, insurance and oils lag.

Key stocks mixed with CELG DECK ISRG WYNN TIF COST LVS and AAPL higher while POT UA RIMM MA C NVDA and VMW lag.

NYSE -1,100 net losers;
NAZ 550 net losers;
NDX 65 WINNERS- PETM GENZ BIIB CELG VMED YHOO VRTX QCOM ERTS WYNN;
OEX 50 WINNERS- AMGN DIS CMCSA HD WY MRK PG PEP KO NSC;
IBD 100-33 WINNERS;
IBD 20-MIXED- GENZ GILD ESRX AAPL HAL SYK XTO BLK CME GOOG the winners;

VIX slightly higher and a few points over the 10 day SMA;

The VXV recently started trading and this fish will be keeping a close eye on it-

Technically on the SPX, areas to watch include the Pivot at 1,476, 50% retracement- 1,474, overhead resistance-1,484, 200 SMA- 1,484.

On the DJIA, resistance is at 13,230 the 200 SMA, and 13,360 the 50% retracement area and the recent highs, support near today's lows.

CLOSING FACTS

Funny how those number and charts work, definitely worth watching for short term price action.

SPX- Climbed early to resistance area at 1,490 and rejected at least 3X during the day. The 200 day SMA at 1,484 was next and that didn't hold as we closed below the 50% FIB retracement - 1,474. Pivot at 1,468 tagged at/near the close. CLICK ON CHART.

DJIA- Opened near the 50% retracement at 13,360 - rejected, and a few minutes before the close fell through the 200 day SMA at 13,225 and tagged the pivot at 13,200.

IWM - also rejected at the 50% retracement a hair above 79 and back to the 61.8 retracement near 77.6.

NDX- opened at the highs and gave back about 60 points as it was in free fall all day along with big cap tech.

And its "apparently" official, AROD is back in the Bronx.

NOON BORE

Markets continue to bounce around as the 1,490 level on the SPX and 13,360 level on the DJIA continues to be resistance. It wouldn't surprise me if it gets taken out before the day is done but certainly the levels worth watching.

Strong sectors- China, metals, brokers, oils, financials, biotechs, - weak links- airlines, gaming, retail and internets.

Key stocks- a bit more winning than losing- Winners- UA MER ISRG BIDU POT ICE VMW XOM AAPL- Losers- TIF WYNN CAT NYX BG MSFT BAC INTC DECK KLAC COST;

Internals- NYSE/NAZ -FLATTISH;

OEX -57 WINNERS- MER ATI NXY LEH CI WMB AVP BNI PEP;

NDX -40 WINNERS- QCOM MNST ISRG MICC GILD JOYG NIHD AMAT AKAM;

IBD 100-75 WINNERS- SSRX MDR FSTR STP TELOZ OII YGE BGC CHL KWK;

Biggest Losers- LKQX GSOL TTES DLB ININ HMSY VIVO SJR TGT DIS TWX LTD RF CCU CAT SHLD LAMR YHOO XMSR WYNN TLAB ROST SIRI DISH;

VIX flattish and under the 10 day SMA;

Up volume a bit better than Down volume;

MER is up 5.5% on the Thain news while NYX is down about 1%. My guess, by NYX sell MER;

Other stuff:

Ags acting well with AGU DE MON MOS POT the leaders;

Banks- not so good with AIB BAC MTB WB WFC the leaders in the red;

Gaming all red with IGT and WYNN the biggest losers;

Media - red as usual with DIS LCAPA TWX the worst of the group;

Metals-higher as usual led by FCX GDX PAAS RIO SSRI;

Oils mainly green- leaders- APA APC CAM DVN HP NFX NXY PWE SU XTO;

Real estate retail and tech mainly red;

And is AROD headed back to the Bronx?

THE OPEN

Markets open higher on the heels of more calming words out of BSC after the GS effect from yesterday. The DJIA is +25, NAZ +3 and SPX +5. Midcaps and Large Value the best performing major indexes.

Strong sectors, the old reliables, China and metals with brokers, oils, homies, financials, and real estate the other leaders. Laggards include semis, airlines, internets, retail and gaming.

Key stocks- about 75% in the green led by UA BIDU POT VMW RIMM C ISRG DECK and AAPL while TIF WYNN MTW LVS NYX KLAC BAC and WINTEL are the biggest losers.

Wacky internals with the NYSE+875, NAZ FLAT, NDX 30 WINNERS, OEX 55 WINNERS and IBD 100-85 WINNERS;

Bottom line - old reliables are leading as proven by the IBD 100- SSRX KWK MDR HDB DSX OII BIDU STP CHL YGE AGU POT SID BGC CLB;

Markets ran into heavy selling at old reliable -SPX 1,490, used to be big support on the SPX and now big resistance, also the 200 day is at the 1,484 level, so more resistance. In addition, DJIA hit it's head at the 50% retracement level of 13,360.

RSI (2) also getting a bit over bought as the major mkt indexes sit near 80 level;

Semis acting poorly along with WINTEL not helping the bulls as the NDX futures were up about 35 and now up 10 as I type.

I don't expect a big sell off as the folks who missed out on yesterdays rally may want to come in and be involved on the long side.

HAPPY RECAP

The "I love you, I love you"/"never call me again" market strikes again as the DJIA closes up 325 and above the 200 day SMA, NAZ +87 and SPX +41. The NDX with AAPL GOOG MICC RIMM NIHD INFY was the best performer +4% after the recent 10% drubbing.

Strongest sectors included China, emerging markets, brokers, financials, airlines, banks and homies while utils, biotech, drugs and semis lagged.

Biggest winners- AAPL MICC NVDA RIMM NIHD ADSK INFY EXPE LEH GS WB MER C WMT EMC JPM AXP LTD DRYS DSX EDU VMW HDB GSOL BIDU ITU FMCN POT YGE;

Biggest losers- SSRX TISI KOP STRA VSEC MDR ATLS ADBE CEPH INTU AMGN CTXS MCD DD BYM CI EXC MO;

Market internals + 2,100 on NYSE and +1,310 on NAZ;

NDX 95+ WINNERS;

OEX 95+ WINNERS;

IBD 100-85 WINNERS;

Up volume 12X Down volume;

19 New Highs and 176 New Lows on the NYSE and 37/163 on the NAZ;

Here we go again- SPX above the 50% retracement and recent support/resistance at 1,475. Next area of resistance, SPX 1,490; note 200 day SMA at 1,484.

IWM has left $78 in the rear view mirror while QQQQ solidly above the $50 level with the 50 day SMA the next area of resistance at 51.84.

OIH was a pretty good deal this morning under $180 and now closing in on the $185 level. I suspect oil gets a bid here and drives the OIH back to the $200 area before the year ends.

And congrats to the Knicks for finally seeing the light on Marbury (benched and AWOL), hopefully Isiah's time is also numbered.

TECHNICALS-IWM

RUT Traders may have noticed the recent action in the IWM; always seems to run into support /resistance at/near the $78 level and that may happen yet again (click on the picture).

That level is the 23.6% FIB retracement with the 50 and 200 day SMA's near by at the $80+ level.

The chart shows that the RUT has been one of the weakest links in the major indexes of late and it just may be giving us the first stopping point for this rally.

And just like that, the problems at ETFC have already gone away as the stock trades up 30%.

MID DAY TRADE

Markets continue to trade higher into the noon hour with a probably a little trade trepidation into the afternoon trade as most know what has happened of late in the final hour or two. Also, seems as if Market internals have weakened after the initial ramp higher.

Strong sectors, China, emerging markets, airlines, financials, brokers, banks, insurance, homies, tech and reits while utils, biotech, oil service, energy and semis lagging.

Key stocks- 37 out of 40 higher- the leaders- VMW AAPL BIDU POT RIMM DECK GS NVDA C JPM MER TIF BG- laggards-XOM MO IBB CELG BAM MSFT KLAC SMH CME.

Market internals- 1,400 net gainers on the NYSE and 860 net green on the NAZ.

OEX- 75 WINNERS;

NDX -80 WINNERS;

IBD 100-80 WINNERS;

Biggest Winners-DSX DRYS VMW EDU HDB AAPL BIDU FMCN POT RIMM MICC ADSK INFY NVDA NIHD UAUA CTSH ROST;

Biggest Losers- ADBE INTU AMGN XRAY GILD SSRX TISI KOP MDR FTI OII BPHX STRA ARD ATLS;

VIX -stabilized and down 17% and near the 10 day SMA;

Up volume about 4X Down Volume;

TRIN .62;

Oil, one of the big stories of the day as it trades down near the $91 area and off about $3.5. No doubt the same folks who said/thought oil shouldn't be at $50 a year ago with $28 the true value) now claim that $75 is probably the real value of crude. I will go with the price on the screen as the value. And check the chart, that looks like a pretty good trade from the long side even if it pulls back more from here.

QQQQ seems to have hit its head near the $50 area which is also just above the 50% FIB retracement and the top of blast off day on September 18, the first rate cut.

SPX 1,450 firmly underneath and will probably act as support again.

RSI (2) on market indexes:

NDX 48

DJIA 61

SPX 55

RUT 62

THE OPEN

Looks like turn around Tuesday has arrived right on time as the markets trade higher led by the NAZ/NDX and big cap tech.

Strongest sectors include emerging markets, financials, retail, reits, banks and real estate with utils, biotech, defense and large cap value lagging.

Key stocks- 38 out of 40 higher as BIDU VMW AAPL RIMM DECK TIF NVDA and GS are leading while MO XOM NYX CELG MSFT and MS are lagging.

NYSE -1700- net winners;

NAZ -1050 -net winners;

NDX-75 WINNERS- ADSK MICC INFY AAPL NIHD XMSR ROST RIMM NVDA GRMN;

OEX-90 WINNERS- WMT LTD GS JPM LEH TGT C WB COF MER AXP;

IBD 100-78 WINNERS- DSX HDB DRYS PKX BIDU PDA MICC SDA VMW TELOZ LFC;

LOSERS-SSRX KOP VSEC BHPX TISI MDR CLB MCD DD AMGN AES CVX COP ADBE CTXS INTU JAVAD ERTS FISV XRAY LAMR;

VIX- down 15% and only 5% above the 10 day SMA;

The SPX is back over the 1,450 support level and the question is always whats next. Next stop could be the 1,475 level which is another area of recent support and a few points under the 200 day SMA.

GS up about $13 as it announces no write offs at the Merrill conference- nice and thanks.

OIH for what its worth is at the 50% FIB retracement and may be worth a shot here with defined risk.

CLOSING GULP

The DJIA finally succumbed and gave up the 13k number while the NAZ/NDX was crushed yet again as the NAZ crossed under the 2,600 mark.

I was hoping the that 1,450 on the SPX would hold as it did the last few days but nope, as the major indexes closed at/near their lows of the day. Not sure where the next area of support is but lets say for now near the 1,420 area.

Major weakness in the recent winners such as commodities and tech, and strength in recent losers including airlines, retail, banks and financials.

The NDX continues to be the worst performing sector as those components continue to get torched.

Market internals and components on the various indexes quite telling:

OEX-40 WINNERS;

NDX -35 WINNERS- not so bad but DISH RIMM NVDA DISCA CTXS APOL AAPL MICC JNPR INFY WYNN all crushed while winners like ROST VRTX SBUX INTU CSCO ESRX WFMI hardly making up for the downside damage.

IBD 100- 10 WINNERS- as the group contains the recent hot stocks- note how YGE CF DRYS MDR MTL POT CNH FCX BIDU CAM NOV all crushed and down 10%+ while winners such as ININ TDG FSTR ESRX MR SSRX LIFC hardly making up the difference.

Check this Volatility:

AAPL -7%

BIDU -12%

GOOG -5%

RIMM -9%

NVDA -9.5%

BHP -5%

FCX-9%

CAM -10%

CNQ -7%

RIO -8%

POT-12%

OIH-5%

XLE -4%

EEM-5%

EWA -5%

ETFC-58%

AMTD +6.5%

GS+3.7%

TROW +3%

LEH+3%

LM+2%

XLF+2.4%

C+3.6%

WFC+3.9%

VIX higher by 8% and at/near the closing high for the year;

Down Volume about Double Up Volume;

Have to mention Jimmy's call of DJIA closing the year at 14,500+ and right now it doesn't look good for his Crystal ball. He doesn't say much about it anymore so I guess it will be just "never mind."

NOON LOOK

Markets continue to flop around with the DJIA higher, the NAZ lower and the SPX near the flat line.

Technical areas to watch. On the SPX:

The recent low near 1,450 looks like near term support with resistance at the 1,474 area (50% FIB retracement), 1,484 (50 day SMA) and 1,490, recent support and now resistance.

On the DJIA:

Seems like overhead resistance near the 61.8% resistance area at 13,155, support below at the FIB level of 12,910. Thursday's high at 13,350 another resistance area as it also the 50% FIB retracement level.

GS:

Trading up $7+ with clear support at 50% retracement line at $204, next resistance the 20 day SMA near $226 or the FIB at $229.

Interesting to look at the various index internals, DJIA with 19 up and 11 down led by C HD IBM JPM WMT JNJ - lower are AA XOM KO DIS MSFT and CAT.

NDX - 55 WINNERS;

OEX- 63 WINNERS;

IBD 100-22 WINNERS;

IBD 20-6 WINNERS;

The IBD 100 internals are ugly because of the disproportionate amount of metals and oils- note - MTL CF CNH MDR POT FCX NOV CAM AGU CLB all ugly and lower by more than 5%.

OEX internals strong on the heels of the recently strong financials led by C MER WFC USB GS WB LEH JPM all higher by more than 3%.

On another note, BRK.A seems to be holding up well during this sell off and I suspect Warren may be tempted by some bargains. The stock is a bit difficult to buy at $135,000, but two wonderful mutual funds own big positions WGRNX and FAIRX. Both have been great value investors over time and I expect that will continue.

OPENING RANGE

Markets are trading mixed with the DJIA higher, NAZ lower and the SPX about FLAT. The RUT and Small Cap Value are the best performing major indexes up .35% and .6% respectively.

Strongest sectors include airlines, banks, financials, retail, trannies, insurance, defense and gaming while metals, oils, China, brokers and emerging markets are lagging.

Key stocks- 50/50 with C MER TIF GS VMW UA BAC JPM MS all green while POT RIMM ISRG XOM BIDU BAM NVDA MTW red;

NYSE/NAZ internals FLAT;

NDX -60 WINNERS;

OEX-55 WINNERS;

IBD 100-25 WINNERS;

IBD 20- 5 Up 15 Down;

WINNERS-ROST UAUA WFMI INTU GENZ ALTR SBUX CSCO MXIM C MER WFC LTD LEH CCU USB WB USP RF SNHY SXE ININ SSRX OTEX BHPX FSTR DLB SNDA MR TDG MORN;

LOSERS-YGE NOV MDR TELOZ STP CAM MTL FCX FTI POT CLB DISH JNPR RIMM ISRG APOL CTXS BIIB SNDK ADBE DISCA NXY SLB ATI HAL BHI CVX COP WMB EP DELL;

The markets have turned upside down as metals, oils and emerging markets are the leaders on the downside while the banks, airlines and retail are the winners.

No real clue how the day will turn out as the initial move lower was bought and the rip higher has now been sold. So just watching for now and fingers are off both the buy and sell keys.

Markets are set to open a bit lower this AM on the heels of downgrades and ETFC news out after the close on Friday.

Checking the SPX Chart, the 13 day SMA sits at 1505 and about 52 points above Friday's close. One thing I look at is how far stretched prices are from various moving averages and this is pretty streaked. Prior times it was this far away from the 13 SMA was , March 5, June 7, July 31 and August 3. All pretty good times to buy the major indexes if you had a time frame that exceeded a few hours as fear right now is the over riding emotion.