There we go again, another 27 point range on the SPX and a close at/near the highs as rumors of an ABK bailout rattled the markets and scared the shorts into covering. Also, a move below 1,328 on the SP Futures seemed to have stopped many scared longs and it seemed to be straight up from that point.
The DJIA finished +97, NAZ +4 and the SPX +10.5.
Strongest sectors- gaming, real estate, financials, telecom, banks and retail while airlines, biotec, metals and trannies lagged.
There were only 300 net winners between the NYSE and the NAZ- so not exactly a broad based 100 point move higher. Although NDX was strong with 66 net green while OEX was better at 80 finishing in positive territory.
DNA moving way up in the after market as good news comes in on Avastin.
Yesterday, I mentioned that some big event would probably be needed to move the markets one way or another- now I am not taking full credit as this could be a fake out move- but it seems we could ramp higher if there is more good news on the ABK/MBI front next week.
A not so wonderful day on the street as the markets continue to trade lower although off their worst levels.
Best sectors- gaming, reits, utils, internets, oils and retail while airlines, homies, brokers and small caps lag.
Market internals continue to be ugly with over 2k net losers between NYSE and NAZ;
NDX- 40 GREEN;
OEX -20 GREEN;
IBD- 30 GREEN;
VIX flattish as usual;
Up volume about 40% of Down volume;
Fed's Fisher with an interesting comment- "slower growth, not prolonged negative growth"
Not expecting a dramatic turnaround this afternooon as market internals and fianncials are just signalling more of the same for the afternoon trade.
Finally, congrats to the fine folks at FOX BUS NEWS- they started broadcasting on October 15 when the SPX was 1,549- so about a 13.5% drip in not quite 4 months or about -40% annualized- good job at top ticking.
This time a little follow through to the downside and the question for folks to ponder - is the market breaking to the down side? The DJIA -60, NAZ -17 and SPX -8.
Strong sectors- internets, gaming and retail while metals, airlines, oils, brokers and homies lag.
Key stocks- 8/40 higher- leaders- AMZN GRMN NVDA ISRG MGM WYNN TIF PG- lower- VMW UA BG ICE C AAPL RIMM POT MA KLAC MS BAC;
NYSE- 1200 net losers;
NAZ- 1000 net losers;
NDX- 45 GREEN;
IBD- 20 GREEN;
Down volume 3X up volume;
Markets are back in over sold territory but who knows if they break down from here. Just gonna watch.
So one of the most influential guys in the world of crude speaks on CNBC and says he nailed the rising price of oil claiming for at least 6 months that the price would exceed $100 per barrel.
Now, he expects the price to fall to $85 or so and then go back up to well over $120. Oh, and did I mention he is short crude? Nice to be able to do that.
Crude did fall on Boone's comments yesterday but I suspect calling the pull back here may not be so profitable as it probably should be lower based on his market moving comments - and down about 20 Cents this morning.
And what does Boone own- How about VLO SU XOM OXY DNR SLB CVX and CLNE. Not sure what kind of a trade Boone is, but if he expecting a 15% drop in the price of crude, its not gonna help those longs.
Believe it or not, markets are set to reverse yet again this morning as the futures indicate about a half % gain on most major market indexes.
Dick Arms looking for a move higher:
"The Arms Index numbers on the five-day and 10-day moving averages are very neutral, but the 21-day, which gives us longer-term projections, remains oversold. So the implication is that the current ambivalence will lead to an advance. Two days ago, I suggested putting on some long positions for a rally of more lasting proportions than we have seen recently. The two trading days since then largely offset one another. I would hold longs in here."
RSI (2) levels at yesterdays clos:
Bottom line- don't get to bullish higher or to bearish lower for now as the trading range rules.
There it is- another ugly day on the street as the gap open higher was quickly sold and the buy the dip sell the rip trade did not work again as the markets pretty much went straight in one direction.
Tomorrow another day and would anyone be surprised if the markets reversed higher yet again.
The SPX is back at/near old reliable of 1,340 and about 25 above the recent lows and 55 below the recent highs. Note also how the range today was 27 points which is about 1/3 of the recent range. Yes, we don't move far over all but have big interday swings.
And what will be the big event that finally give us the directional move- my guess - since earnings season is done and take overs aren't that likely- probably some resolution to the MBIA/ABK situation.
SAME OLD SAME OLD
Here we go again- different day same result- the market gaps open higher and turns around and heads straight down. So far a range of 175 points on the DJIA-so also another big range day but in the opposite direction of yesterday- so far.
Strong sectors- metals, semis, telecom, ags, tech and homies while oils, biotech, banks, gaming and airlines lag.
Market internals have flipped to red with 825 net decliners on the NYSE/NAZ.
DJIA 10 GREEN;
Down volume about 2X Up volume;
And of course 1,360 rejected again on the SPX- and when is that coiled spring going to pop?
Markets open higher led by tech and semis with the exception of recent favs BIDU and GOOG. Semis look good with the SMH +2.5% led by INTC.
Other strong sectors include homies, metals, ags, real estate, brokers and small caps- losers include oils, large cap value and gaming.
Key stocks- 25/40 higher led by RIMM KLAC SMH MSFT MTW INTC DECK UA BG MGM- losers- WYNN VMW GRMN ICE MA NYX BIDU CME XOM;
NYSE- 700 net winners;
NAZ - 800 net winners;
NDX- 60 GREEN;
OEX- 60 GREEN;
IBD- 66 GREEN;
VIX- down 1.5%;
Up volume 2X Down Volume;
Don't think today will be a rip roaring day higher but buying dips and selling rips may be the day trading winning strategy for now.
Markets closed higher with the DJIA +90, NAZ +21 and SPX +11. The SPX closed right at the 1,360 resistance line and generally of late the markets have turned tail after hitting support or rsistance.
Strongest sectors- homies, semis, metals, real estate, oil service and retail while telecom, gaming, drugs, biotech and drugs.
Key stocks- generally higher led by RIMM ICE KLAC DECK VMW MS POT SMH MER GS- laggards- GRMN CELG MGM LVS UA GOOG ISRG IBB BG PG.
NYSE/NAZ 1,200 net winners;
IBD- 65 WINNERS;
VIX - 4.6% and becoming worthless;
Up volume 2.5X Down with a total of 1.4B- light again on a nice up day;
RSI (2) levels:
As I said- the SPX recent high was 1,395 and the low at 1,315 - so we sit a bit above the middle but at resistance and in coiled spring mode. It should not be long.
Markets have yet again filled the morning gap lower and are now trading in positive territory with the DJIA +6, NAZ +3 and SPX +1.
Strong sectors look good for the bulls with semis, brokers, retail, oil service, real estate and banks higher while telecom, gaming, biotech, drugs and airlines lag.
Markets internals have also flipped to flat to slightly green on the NDX/IBD 100;
VIX - down 1%;
Up vol a bit better than down volume;
And Poole from the FED says - U.S. economy is limping along but he believes it will skirt a recession.
So with banks, brokers, semis, tech trading higher and leading a higher close near the 1,360 on the SPX would not be surprising - however- its very difficult to predict as sellers may again come in full force in the final half hour (yesterday).
So far the mirror of yesterday as the gap lower gets bought and some of the market bell whethers such as GS C MA BSC LEH MER MS AAPL RIMM INTC are trading green.
Strongest sectors- semis, retail, oil service, brokers, tech and real estate while telecom, gaming, utils, drugs, defense and airlines lag.
Key stocks- 15 out of 40 green - leaders- KLAC POT MER GS MS VMW RIMM GRMN SMH UA - laggards- BIDU CME MGM NVDA CELG LVS GOOG BG MTW WYNN;
NYSE- 1,160 net losers;
NAZ- 640 net losers;
NDX- 55 WINNERS;
IBD- 35 WINNERS;
The next level of importance on the SPX is the 1,340 area and so far its holding but its still early in the day. If that gives way then the 1,315 area, which is the recent low.
I think we are just going to chop around - so it may be an uneventful day.
Markets gapped higher yesterday on the heels of strong European markets and fizzled into the finish with a red close.
A closer look at the numbers tells one that this market is coiled to move in a big way one direction or another. The SPX has been trading in an 80 point range (small) since January 24 with a typical daily range of approximately 23 SPX (large) points (13 SMA) over that period.
As I mentioned the other day, the Keltner Bands are outside the Bollinger Bands also indicating a tight range and a market set to break one way or another.
The old rule is volatility is mean reverting and low volatility brings high and vice versa and we are set to spring pretty pretty big one way or another. Not sure if today will be a fakeout like yesterday but watch closely cause I think the day of reckoning is close.
There it was - another miserable day for the bulls as the big opening gap higher was filled and SPX 1,360 was clearly rejected yet again.
Brokers and Banks traded ugly from the open and gave a pretty good hint that the big open wouldn't hold. GS BSC LEH LM MER MS TROW CME ICE NYX NMX BAC C JPM MA all down and some down big.
Strongest sectors- metals, ags, oils, drugs and defense while telecom, brokers, airlines, real estate, internets and semis lagged.
NYSE- 375 net winners;
NAZ- 100 net losers;
NDX- 50 WINNERS;
OEX -50 WINNERS;
IBD -65 WINNERS;
WINNERS- MTL SID CF MOS AUY STLD FMCN HANS TLAB GRMN JOYG ESRX SIAL HPQ BHI ATI SLB WMB XOM COP EP BAX;
LOSERS- VZ T NYX CCU GOOG S BK EMC BRCM APOL BIDU ISRG SIRI BBY UAUA BLK PDA GIGM HDB MCRS CCH RIMM KSU;
VIX up 3% and about 4% under the 10 SMA - is it losing its relevance?
FWIW- RSI (2) levels at the close:
Markets continue to trade higher but well off their highs and lows. The DJIA +113, NAZ +16 and SPX +12. Brokers and banks continue to trade in the red and a strong close without them probably not likely.
Winning groups include metals, oils, ags, emerging markets, insurance and drugs- laggards- banks, brokers, telecom, airlines, real estate and reits.
NYSE- 1,200 net winners;
NAZ- 635 net winners;
NDX- 75 WINNERS;
IBD - 75 WINNERS;
Up vol about 2.5X Down vol;
SPX 1,360 area has been recent resistance and a flunk at that level again today would not be surprising. If we do get past 1,360 - then 1,390 the next level on the radar. Just not sure how we get there without BSC GS LEH LM MER MS CME ICE NYX NMX JPM C BAC WB WFC which are mixed today but dogs of late.
Markets open higher but looks for now like the gap is being sold -note the initial slippage in BKX XLF XBD and all the big brokers have flipped to red.
Strongest sectors- ags, metals, oils, biotech, drugs and large caps while telecom, airlines, brokers, banks, internets and retail lag.
Key stocks- 30 out of 40 green -leaders- DECK POT GRMN XOM CELG NVDA INTCD VMW UA KLAC- losers- NYX GOOG MER LVS CME MS GS ISRG WYNN;
NYSE- 1,250 net winners;
NAZ - 890 net winners;
NDX- 80 GREEN;
OEX -80 GREEN;
IBD 100- 83 GREEN;
VIX - FLAT;
Up volume 3X Down volume;
Looks like a classic fade the gap in a bear market until it stops working and for now its working. My strategy to buy the dip if I see the financials stabilize.
Oils ripping and the real trade of the day maybe buying the OIH/XLE on dips.
Checking Barrons this week- bullish on:
Joe Rosenberg from LTR bullish on:
MSFT JNJ CMCSA TGT ALL FNM - and I am bullish on LTR;
AIG- talk on Barrons that the recent write off's will be added back to income over time and the recent sell off is way over done. The stock is at a 10 year low and I suspect folks buying now will be well rewarded in the 24/36 month time frame.
Various folks including Warren Buffet, Bob Millen of Jensen Invetment Mgt and Lori "We are in a perfect storm for large-cap growth. A trend that meets at the intersection of undervaluation, globalization and quality." That means that patient, selective bargain-hunters ultimately will do well. Becker even expects a bounce in the financials, if the fed-funds rate slips below 3%.Appelbaum of GS bullish on WFC as it is 22% off the 52 week high, a PE of 10 on 2009 earnings, ROE of 17.1% and a dividend of 4.2% makes it look pretty pretty good.
Dan Becker of Waddell & Reed is bullish on CME CL LVS MON and GILD. Becker also says:
"We are in a perfect storm for large-cap growth. A trend that meets at the intersection of undervaluation, globalization and quality."
And some news on the mortgage front from our good friends at CFC:
Delinquencies rose to 7.47% of unpaid principal balances from 4.32% a year earlier and 7.2% in December. The month-to-month increase is much less than that made from November to December.
On loans it services, the foreclosure rate edged up to 1.48% last month from 1.44% in December.
In January 2007 the rate was 0.77%.
Countrywide funded $21.89 billion in loans in January, compared with $23.55 billion in December and $37.11 billion a year earlier. That included no nonprime fundings and a 76% plunge in home-equity loans and lines of credit.
Average daily applications fell 6.4% year-over-year to $2.62 billion.
As the eloquent Dennis Kneale over at CNBC would say, over 92% of CFC's customers are still paying on time and 98.5% of their loans are NOT in foreclosure so things aren't as bad as blah blah blah.