Markets closed in the green but some sell signals are certaintly apparent. The DJIA closed +40, NAZ +9.5 and SPX +5.7. The NDX 100 lagged and closed flat while the RUT/MID were again the best of the major indexes.
Strong sectors included metals, gaming, small caps, tech, retail, biotechs and defense. Weak links were utilities, bonds, homies, internets, drugs and airlines.
Big winners- MICC MRVL EXPD WYNN BYD WMT LTD LEH AVP COP CYNO MT MTOX PCR PCU RIO ACH MTL and MS.
Losers- HURN HURC AAPL PCP SYNL LAYN T EXC VZ MRK BA KO SO ATVI NTAP VMED VRTX and SNDK.
Market internals were strong with 1,100 net gainers on the NYSE and 730 net green on the NAZ.
The NDX was about 2/1 up to down while the OEX was 3/1 green to red.
The VIX/VXO tandem were both down about 2% ahead of the weekend and trade a few % below their respective 10 day SMA's.
The 2 day RSI numbers on the major indexes are as follows:
Small Growth 96
Large Value 85
Those numbers speak for themselves as I did take some longs off as I don't expect much more upside from these levels. Hopefully I will be buying back lower and selling higher and again.
And lets see what kind of weekend AROD will have now that the pressure is off.
Markets continue higher but are well off their highs and some sell bells are probably ringing. The DJIA is +19, NAZ +9 and SPX +4. The RUT/MID are the best performers of the major indexes.
Strong sectors include metals, oils, gaming, retail, semis, small caps, trannies and small cap growth; worst sectors include drugs, utilities, real estate, airlines and internets.
Notable big gainers include WMT MA BSC LEH BOT NYX XLE OIH VLO TSO INTC GOOG IBN GILD BHP FCX SSRI and PAAS.
Notable losers include GS AAPL SLG LM CME PG GE SNDK MSFT COST MGM DNA SGP and MRK.
Biggest winners include MICC MRVL DELL WYNN LVLT LTD LEH TGT COP PCR MT GTI KSU and POT.
Biggest losers- HURC AFAM SYNL ROLL T ETR EXC KO SO PG ATVI VMED XMSR XLNX and NTAP.
So where/why are sell bells ringing?
Volatility indexes are finally getting oversold and now trading at/near 5% below their respective 10 day SMA's and at 20 day lows.
The 2 day RSI readings on all the major indexes is in the mid 90's.
Almost 40% of the individual components of OEX/NDX are trading with 2 day RSI readings over 90.
Finally, many many sectors/stocks hit new 20 day highs this morning and that is more of a sell than a buy signal to this "reversion to the mean" trader.
To me, those are all very overbought signals and I am taking stuff off the table.
Markets open higher but it looks like we are getting a bit extended. Sorting through the OEX/NDX, I find nearly 30% of the issues trading with 2 day RSI's over 95 and none trading under 14. Also plenty of new 20 highs such as:
MSH XOI FTO CMR NMX FCX BYD DFX ITA TXT DWC SPX OEX INDU MID RUT NDX BIIB.
Also weakness in TIF and APPL.
Strongest sectors include metals, semis, oils, small caps, trannies, software, gaming, small cap growth, tech and airlines. Lagging are homies, drugs and utilities.
Biggest winners include DELL MICC EXPD NVDA LVLT VRSN WYNN LEH SLB AVP NSC INTC CSC CYNO ARGN CLRK PCR and KSU.
Biggest losers include HURN AAPL CPLA VIP HURC T WY EXC MO CBS VMED FISV NTAP GRMN and AMZN.
Market internals are strong with net 1,600 green on the NYSE and net 1,250 green on the NAZ.
The NDX/OEX and IBD 100 are close to 8.5/1.5 green to red.
The volatility indexes down by about 3% and now trading about 5% under their respective 10 day SMA's.
Here are the numbers for May for year to date returns for many of the indexes and stocks covered at this site:
Large Cap Growth +7.2%
Large Cap Value +7.6%
Small Cap Growth +15.7%
Small Cap Value +2.3%
Cramer's favorite growth stock for 2007- NYX -14.5%
Cramer's favorite speculative stock for 2007 LVLT +3.7%
Cramer's favorite value stock for 2007 MO +8.4%
I guess we can draw our own conclusions.
OK, I will stand by my earlier prediction that it would be a choppy day and that is exactly what it was. The MIDs/NAZ were the big winner on the day while small cap growth was the best of the 4 caps.
Strongest sectors included metals, brokers, semis, retail, trannies and defense; leading lower were oils, real estate, banks, internets and small cap value.
Big winners -FTK LAYN ARGN SNP CPLA NSM ATI EXC DELL FDX TGT AMGN AKAM CHRW and CDNS.
Big losers - SHLD EBAY MICC DISH SLB CSC MSFT C DIS EML VCLK DXPE HDNG IDSA SYNL and ICE.
Market internals were better than the major indexes with a net 470 green on the NYSE and net 450 green on the NAZ.
The OEX/NDX indexes were about 3/2 green to red while the IBD 100 was even better at 65 to the green.
More low 2 day RSI numbers from MRK GM TEVA APOL and VRTX.
Volatility indexes drifted higher and closed at/near their respective 10 day SMA's.
Wheat, Corn, Gold, Silver and Crude all higher.
Tomorrow is employment day and the gurus expect about 100K new jobs added. I have no idea what it will be but I expect another choppy day as most will not add to their before the weekend.
Markets continue higher led by mid and small caps. The DJIA is +31, NAZ+14 and SPX +3.
Strong sectors include metals, silvers, brokers, semis, trannies, retail and airlines while oils, real estate and banks lag.
Biggest gainers include ADAM CHRW ADBE FLEX NTAP NSM ATI AMGN BNI AES TGT TYC UTX LAYN SNP SNHY FTK BAP BIDU AFAM and ARGN.
Losers include VCLK EML DXPE HDNG MTOX SLB CSC CVX CBS TWX SHLD MICC LOGI VRTX and EBAY.
Market internals continue strong with the NDX at 70/30 gainers to losers while the OEX is 65/35 up to downs.
IBD stocks also very strong with 75 of the 100 in the green.
The major indexes are sitting at the following 2 day RSI levels:
Large and Small Growth- 93
Large and Small Value- 88/89
Some low 2 day RSI stocks include:
Volatility indexes sitting near the unchanged levels and a bit below their respective 10 day SMA's.
My take, we bounce around for the rest of the day as days after big trend days tend to be choppy.
Markets open higher yet again and are trading at a new all time highs for the RUT/MID/DJIA group.
Strong sectors include brokers, metals, semis, trannies, airlines, small cap growth, defense and mid caps. Weakest are oils and biotech.
Key stocks mainly green with BOT CME MER MS BSC MA PVH KSS AAPL BIDU GOOG AMGN and FDX.
Lower are NDAQ NMX C MSFT CLX and DNA.
Market internals are strong yet again with the NYSE at +1,500 and the NAZ at +700.
The rate on the 10 year Bond is also creeping higher as it now trades over 4.9%. So be on the lookout for a stocks to bond switch as one continues to make new highs while the other continues to sell off.
The broker index is reaching all time highs while the BKX banking index thanks to C and BAC is about flat on the year while the DJIA is up over 9%.
I am a bit leery of the rally and expect a little sell off as the traders may decide to pocket the gains and take a long week end.
Well the demand for equities certainly seems to have trumped the higher stamp tax in China and everything else for that matter. The DJIA closes at a new high and hits a new inter day high while the SPX closes at a new closing high but is again no where near the inter day high of 1,552 from March of 2000. The NAZ, still about 50% more to go.
Despite what you might hear on CNBC, tech was not a leader today despite the nice action in GOOG and APPL. The leaders were corn, wheat, real estate, oils, brokers, utilities and internets. Leading lower were semis and drugs.
Big winners included- CNG WNR NILE CF POT TEX EP CAT EMC EXC AES JOYG GRMN BIIB VRSN FISV and AAPL.
Losers- QCOM MRVL MXIM VRTX AMAT ABT MRK MCD GD BAC INTC BAX DXPE BAP PTI PTNR BWLD and MTOX.
Market internals finished very strong with a net 1,275 green on the NYSE and 270 net green on the NAZ after being net red by over 1,000 during the morning.
The NDX closed with about 3/2 up to down while the OEX was 4/1 up to down.
The VIX/VXO were both lower by about 5% and now trade about 5% under their respective 10 day SMA's, an area that the markets typically tread water.
Some 2 day RSI readings include:
Other news of interest, TROW CEO Rogers says Bancroft family should agree to sell DJ to NWS since they have no better alternatives and Rupert may even raise the price to get the deal done. Can't imagine any way that another business network would ever be able to top the genius that is CNBC and their anchors who continuously squawked about the new all time high on the SPX.
One other interesting new item was the Fed Futures indicating the Fed will hold rates steady into quarter 4 and a 50% chance of a cut before year end. Not quite the Cramer scenario of a cut in May of 2007.
The markets continue their march higher off the morning gap open as the DJIA is +33, NAZ +4 and SPX +3.5. The MID's are actually the best performer as they are higher by almost .5%.
Strong sectors - real estate, oils, brokers, metals, retail, homies and utilities while semis, drugs, gaming and airlines are lagging.
Strongest stocks include EP AES CAT EMC WMB JOYG BIIB VRSN GRMN SNDK FISV CDWC CNH POT NILE SSYS DECK and LAYN.
Weakest- DXPE PTNR PTI BAP ARGN BWLD CPLA MRK MER INTC ABT GD QCOM MRVL PAYX EXPD LLTC and AMAT.
Market internals have flipped to green on the NYSE with net 420 green and net 260 red on the NAZ.
The NDX shows about 55 up and 45 down while the OEX comes in with 3 up to every 2 lower.
Not much to say except the bull market continues as demand for equities trumps just about everything else. The markets can hardly sell of for a 60 minutes with out the dippers stepping up.
Markets are lower but well off their lows as the word "resilient" continues to make the rounds. The DJIA is -20, NAZ -5 and SPX -1.5.
Strong sectors include real estate, oils, corn, biotechs and utilities. Leading lower are semis, airlines, tech, defense, homies and drugs.
Higher stocks inlcude SLG BAM BOT VLO FTO SNDK AAPL PVH and BIIB. Lower are MA CME MER GS GOOG MSFT SGP DNA INFY and FDX.
Market internals started very weak but have been improving and now show net 575 red on the NYSE and 860 net red on the NAZ.
The OEX has recovered to only 3/2 red to green while the NDX is a hair worse at 35/65 up to down.
Weak stocks that may be of interest today include WB BAX MCD HIG MRK BAC BAP NTAP APOL EBAY EXPE FLEX and SUNW.
Lots of high tick readings indicating to this observer that buyers are lurking as the markets have dipped. We never got to the VIX/VXO overbought levels of 14.75 and 14.3 respectively.
Also, the Pivot Point on the SPX is near 1,516.5, so if we can get above that level we may just have a nice reversal taking us to new highs before too long.
Markets are set to open lower on the heels of the slump in Chinese equities as they raise the stamp tax.
In the news:
ADP employment comes in at 97k; KO upgraded to Buy at C; FBR believes PXD is undervalued; CWTR beats estimates and raises guidance; JOYG light on revenues; PHM reducing work force by about 16%; CDWC going private at $87.75; Barron's reports that insiders sold $21.5 million of HPQ; and finally Cramer is bullish on LVLT APC XTO URS OLN CKEC GMR EIX ED D CSCO TM and VOD;
Gappers -Higher - CWTR SPNC DBRN OPWV BIIB CDWC SCUR; Lower-SOLF IBKR KONG CAF TSL FRO GSS PAY LFC MPEL GSK.
Some low 2 day RSI readings that may be worth a shot on the lower open:
And some high 2 day RSI reading that may be worth selling:
GOOG - 97
Here is the recent Trading Markets article on the strategy.
Markets continue to be resilient as the DJIA closes +14, NAZ +15 and SPX +2.5. The RUT was the star of the day closing higher by .9% and way better than any other major index.
Strong sectors included biotechs, small cap growth, brokers, defense, utilities, semis and gaming. Commodities, metals, drugs, banks, homies and large cap value lagged.
Big winners included GS CME ICE NMX MER MS BSC MA SLG TRC FCE.A GOOG APC CAM FDX CTSH MGM DNA CDWC FISV JNPR MRVL VRSN EP BUD CL GD VZ GSOL EML WNR PCR TBSI ROLL and IDSA.
Market internals closed nicely green on the major indexes with the NYSE at +880 and the NAZ at +710.
The OEX/NDX were both better than 3/2 green to red.
Volatility indexes closed slightly higher but no buy or sell signals.
Markets sold down mid day as news hit that the Chinese markets were increasing certain stamp fees to slow down the markets. Well just another opportunity for the dippers to buy as demand for equities trumps all other theories.
Weird day as the major indexes are flat while market internals on the NYSE are 2/1 gainers to losers.
The RUT and the MIDs continue to lead the way with both higher by about .5%.
Strong sectors include real estate, airlines, gaming, trannies, biotech and utilities; leading lower are oils, homies, internets, drugs and metals.
As mentioned, internals are better than the major indexes with the OEX at 55/45 up to down; the NDX about 3/2 up to down and the SPX about 275/225 green to red.
Big winners include EP BUD CL GD AVP FDX CDWC FISV JNPR MRVL QCOM GENZ GSOL EML MTOX PCR and EDU.
Losers- HDNG MTL AFAM STLD CYNO VIP CSC COP LTD AA WB MCD CBS ATI BEAS EXPE AKAM SPLS and MNST.
Volatility indexes up by about 2%.
A guess for the afternoon, another ramp up before a flat close.
Markets open higher led by the small/mid cap sectors.
Strongest sectors include real estate, metals, gaming, airlines, trannies, defense, homies and tech. Leading lower are oils and drugs.
Key stocks higher led by CME GS BSC SLG CLI FCE.A KSS PVH GOOG TXN CTSH and MGM.
Market internals are very strong with more than 1,700 net green on the NYSE and about 1,000 net green on the NAZ.
The OEX is about 4/1 green to red while the NDX is about 3/1 green to red.
New 20 day highs include ORCL GOOG COST FISV and MEDI.
Low 2 day RSI readings include MCD and WB.
The 10 year rate is crawling higher yet again and now reads 4.876%.
Volatility indexes a bit higher.
Probably another buy the dip day as the internals are extremely strong.
DEALS DEALS DEALS
Lots of chatter this morning about the CDWC ASN ABN deals. Also talk of how long it will continue as rates are low are valuations are fair. CNBC running with a when will it end story and even Cramer weighs in with his thoughts:
"More than $81 billion in buyouts this month. That's extraordinary. All kinds of industries: service, manufacturing, credit-card processing.
And what do we hear from the media? "It can't continue." Funny, this "can't continue" story appeared in abundance last November when we had a similar surge. It has appeared many times since the year began.
Yet the story keeps getting written and nobody apologizes for scaring you into selling stocks that were later privatized.
Funny; it will end. But not before many things happen, including these five:
1. Interest rates on the long end going to at least 6%-7%. At that point, I believe it will get too risky.
2. The equity market being closed to the IPOs of the companies that need to be flipped. It's wide open right now.
3. Not one, not two, but maybe three or four, or even five deals going bust. Can't we wait for even one to go belly-up before we get too nervous?
4. Valuations ramping up more. With the S&P 500 selling for about 17.5 times next year's earnings, there is plenty of room to keep buying.
5. Private equity funds running out of money. Very unlikely.
Until we get this litany made real, you should simply dismiss all of the stories you read about the private equity guys pulling back or getting worried.
Without these five events playing out, frankly, I believe most of these cautionary stories are irresponsible, although no one in the media ever has to answer for the sin of keeping people out of a market that goes higher. "
Of course my guess is Cramer is wrong and this burns out long before rates hit 6%. And what happened to his May rate cut that he wrote about it continuously? (oh, never mind).