DEALS DEALS DEALS

Lots of chatter this morning about the CDWC ASN ABN deals. Also talk of how long it will continue as rates are low are valuations are fair. CNBC running with a when will it end story and even Cramer weighs in with his thoughts:

"More than $81 billion in buyouts this month. That's extraordinary. All kinds of industries: service, manufacturing, credit-card processing.

And what do we hear from the media? "It can't continue." Funny, this "can't continue" story appeared in abundance last November when we had a similar surge. It has appeared many times since the year began.

Yet the story keeps getting written and nobody apologizes for scaring you into selling stocks that were later privatized.

Funny; it will end. But not before many things happen, including these five:

1. Interest rates on the long end going to at least 6%-7%. At that point, I believe it will get too risky.

2. The equity market being closed to the IPOs of the companies that need to be flipped. It's wide open right now.

3. Not one, not two, but maybe three or four, or even five deals going bust. Can't we wait for even one to go belly-up before we get too nervous?
4. Valuations ramping up more. With the S&P 500 selling for about 17.5 times next year's earnings, there is plenty of room to keep buying.

5. Private equity funds running out of money. Very unlikely.

Until we get this litany made real, you should simply dismiss all of the stories you read about the private equity guys pulling back or getting worried.

Without these five events playing out, frankly, I believe most of these cautionary stories are irresponsible, although no one in the media ever has to answer for the sin of keeping people out of a market that goes higher. "

Of course my guess is Cramer is wrong and this burns out long before rates hit 6%. And what happened to his May rate cut that he wrote about it continuously? (oh, never mind).