THE DOPEY DJIA

I was reading something the other day where some strategist figured out that if we deleted C and BAC from the DJIA it would only cost about 50 points- well I stumbled onto something a bit more startling- Lose the bottom 13 stocks from the DJIA and we barely lose 1,200 points-

Check it out:

JPM 181

HD 149

DD 149

DIS 133

MSFT 129

INTC 102

PFE 98

AXP 96

GE 68

AA 50

BAC 32

GM 18

C 12

There it is, based on the .1255 current DJIA divisor the bottom 13 price weighted DJIA stocks account for about 1,215 DJIA points, or 13 of the 30 (43%) yielding a grand total of 17% of the index. How dopey is this.

BACK ON MONDAY

THE CLOSE

Equities closed at the lows of the day as weakness on the NAZ/NDX eventually dragged the other indexes down for the ride.

Winning sectors- banks, oils gaming and metals while real estate, biotech, drugs and shipping lagged.

NYSE- 300 net losers;

NAZ- 670 net losers;

NDX -15 GREEN;

OEX- 25 GREEN;

VIX- FLAT at 44.8;

Gold down $7 at $947;

Crude- +$2 at 44.53

SPX hit the top of the channel at/near 780 and turned south from there - the fish did catch a nice trade on QID - but others were losers -

Out tomorrow as we load up the truck and head north-

RSI (2) levels:

SPX 25

NAZ 21

DJIA 26

RUT 21

So maybe a little lower back to 740 lows on the SPX and a boost higher from there after a nother retest. DELL blowing up on earnings and trading near $8- bargain. Sure.

MIDDAY SWOON

Markets pulling back and the 780 level was indeed the area to sell/short- SPX +3.5 @768 as I type.

Strong sectors- financials, gaming energy, internets and retail while trannies, shipping, drugs and biotech lag.

NYSE- 890 net green;

NAZ- 420 net green;

VIX- down 2.5% at 43.5;

Crude up $1.75 and energy stocks are following that chart.

Gold down $11 at $943.

CNBC becoming the new FOX as they bash taxes and Obama- borrow and spend or tax spend?

THE FILL

Markets fill much of that opening gap higher and now which way - the fish is clueless for now but waiting ......

The SPX +6.5 and the NAZ +3 - weakness in NAZ/NDX a bit disconcerting to the bulls.

Strong sectors- banks, gaming, oils and semis while metals, botech and trannies lag.

NYSE- 1140 net green;

NAZ- 550 net green;

OEX- 70 GREEN;

NDX- 50 GREEN;

VIX -43.2 and down 3.35%;

Crude +$1.9 at 44.4;

Gold - down $15 at $938;

SPX stocks definitely over NAZ/ tech/bio stocks - and as I look an entry into DIG may be in offing as it is strong along with CRUDE. SPX 780 probably a short term top area with support at 765 for now.

GS cutting numbers big on SPX and earnings today - similar to the $300 oil call?

And a Bull on GOLD.

THE RSI

The big gap up continues as futures are currently +18 on the NQ and +15 on the ES- RSI (2) levels at/near 70- scaling into shorts at these RSI levels has been a profitable trade but the market still seem so over sold on an intermediate term chart.

The big question - Gap and Go or Gap and Fill?

THE LINKS

Futures are trading up this morning and indicate about a 5 point gain on the SPX as I type - of course anyone watching the last 20 minutes yesterday knows that and current price and direction can make big changes in a very short period of time.

Links galore this AM:

The Trader Mike take;

Leading SOX?;

Timing the GOLD market!!!;

BAC Heiress?

DJIA Member Performance;

The Garage Sale;

Pawning their lifes work;

Switzerland going south;

10 ETF's worth the risk;

I can't get no>>>>>>;

A touch of GREY;

Its the little things;

Best Personal Finance Blogs;

Best companies for customer service;

THE CLOSE

One of the more bizzare trading days in quite a while as the markets finished mixed according to Maria B - I will go with lower on every index and just about every sector- good for Maria.

The RUT futures fell about 12 points in the last 20 minutes of trading- hard to believe as that is about 3% in 20 minutes.

NYSE- 670 net losers;

NAZ- 1050 net losers;

NDX /OEX- 30 GREEN on each;

VIX- down 2% on the sell down and closing at 44.7;

TRIN- 1.07 - Down volume twice the up;

Gold down $13 at $950;

RSI (2) levels back at near 45 on major indexes;

Too bizzare to analyze as their was all kinds of analysis of the stress test and which banks will and wont benefit-

Tomorrow another day and it can't have more twists and turns than today.

MIDDAY SQUEEZE

Whipsaw city as markets move up and down and up and down depending on talking heads comments.

NYSE- 1450 net losers;

NAZ -1340 net losers;

NDX -20 GREEN;

OEX 15 GREEN;

VIX- flat near 46;

TRIN- 1.5 down volume about 3x the up;

Gold 966;

Crude 42;

Long TWM as I type - have been in and out of most 2x short etf's with mixed results as its been very difficult - RUT the worst of the indexes so trying to stick short there-

THE OPEN

There goes the first half of yesterdays rally- gone in 30 minutes with the Small caps taking the biggest hit.

NYSE- 1750 net losers;

NAZ- 1100 net losers;

NDX/OEX- 10 green on each;

VIX- up 3% at 46.75;

Down volume 6x the up;

TRIN- 1.3;

Looking to short pullbacks - generally TWM DXD and SRS which may soar on more ugly real estate news from AIG.

PRE MARKETS

Futures looking lower as the equities are set to give back some of yesterdays big gains. Not necessarily a thumbs down on the speech - but who would have thought a little profit taking today.

Anyhow some good links from the overnight:

A WHAT rally?;

The AIG joke- and the money you will never see;

The Trader Mike take;

The BIG 15 from last night;

Jim Bunning unplugged;

TEN Best and Worst housing markets;

Putting out the RITZ;

A sad day for Long Island;

The USEFUL Strategists;

THE CLOSE

So much for the boring day as markets decided to move higher after I posted the bore. Some rumors about Obama mentioning a BAD BANK tonight - and the concern is if he doesn't come out with something its back down tomorrow.

Strong sectors- banks, brokers, reits and homies with metals, drugs, biotech and telecom lagging.

NYSE- 2220 net winners;

NAZ- 1350 net winners;

VIX- down by 13.5% at 45.5 and now at 3% under the SMA 10;

TRIN- .44 and hard to believe but the SMA 5 on the TRIN now under .8;

Decent volume with up leading down by about 12x;

So a strong day that closes near the highs and the RSI 2 level on the SPX up to 62 and another few up days and all the trend followers will be shorting big time-

Gold a big hit today closed at $964- lots of gold bears and I think they will get proven wrong.

MIDDAY BORE

Choppy day to say the least as the SPX is +9 and the NAZ +17 - but very little movement since the early highs.





Strong sectors- homies, brokers, ags, semis and energy while metals, defense, shipping and drugs lag.





NYSE- 660 net green;


NAZ- 650 net green;


NDX- 75 GREEN;


OEX - 80 GREEN;





VIX - uh oh down 7% at 48.75;





TRIN- .6 up volume 2.5X the down;





Expecting the chop to continue and how boring is this Bernancke Q and A- as brutal as this choppy market- hopefully this afternoon brings some decent trades.



And some afternoon links:

Hot and Not for 09;

The Quant on a bounce;

The Retrace;

Saut on the soup;

OPENING CHOP

The usual - an opening gap higher and shazam a fill of the gap to the downside - SPX +5.5 and NAZ +14.5.

NYSE- 350 net green after seeing +1,000 a few moments ago;

NAZ- +770;

NDX - 80 GREEN;

OEX- 75 GREEN;

VIX - down 4% at/near 50.6;

TRIN- .75 with up volume about 1.5X the down;

Gold -6 at $986;

Crude +.45cents at 38.4;

Choppy day at the start and may just end that way - buy dips sell rips- sorry.

PRE MARKETS

Futures are trading up in the pre markets as the markets are way way oversold - not much news except for the AIG wait and more implosion in Asia.

Some fun VIX facts as the SPX almost touched its November 21 low yesterday - SPX hit 742 while 741 was the prior November low.

Check the VIX and its a completely different story- here are the highs on the VIX and the corresponding numbers on the SPX:

October 24 2008 VIX 89.53 SPX 853

November 20, 2008 VIX 81.48 SPX 748

November 21, 2008 VIX 80.73 SPX 741

February 23, 2009 VIX 53.16 SPX 742

So there is either a lot less fear at these same low levels or folks are waiting a bit longer to get buying puts.

Taleb on Bloomberg TV a good interview.

Kellner with 21 less gloomy things;

Some fun stuff on stocktwits.com- discussing Jim Rogers - gets in front of TV buy commodities- they tank- buy China - it tanks - short the dollar - it soars- just saying.

THE ORACLE

The chart of BRK.A - not such an oracle any more as his holdings continue to crater, and the stock is at 1999 prices - and we all wanted this deal when he bought GE stock. Now - not so much.

Stress Test to show stress;

The fish is looking to buy more of these;

The Shrink;

No doubt we the taxpayers will also make money on this investment;

SAME OLD SAME OLD

Markets closed at the lows again as the trade "weak markets tend to close at/near the lows" worked yet again. The SPX -27 and the NAZ -53.5 as we continue to lose market value.

Sectors in the green - nothing on my screen but the worst were real estate, shipping, energy and ags.

NYSE- 2275 net losers;

NAZ- 1600 net losers;

NDX- 5 GREEN;

OEX- 9 GREEN;

VIX- higher by 7.5% at 53;

Total volume 1.6B shs with 4x to the downside;

RSI (2) levels continue to trade near 0- a bounce coming and it will probably be a whopper - all about the timing.

SPX closing at 743 - note the double bottom - hmmm- problem is the selling is so relentless - but we will see.

MIDDAY TRADE

Markets continue to trade ugly with few in the way of pull ups for those who want to short. We did however find some support near 750 on the SPX - but a move through there this PM could give us a very ugly close.

Sector strength in banks and homies while real estate and energy lag.

NYSE- 1940 net losers;

NAZ- 1200 net losers;

VIX- up 4.5% at 51.5.

Still looking to short rallies when ever I can find them - trying to keep it on TWITTER-

TH OPEN

The rally which began last night during the Oscar's has about run its course as most of the major indexes have turned red. SPX -1, NAZ -14 as tech acts awful yet again.

Strong sectors - banks, gaming, shipping and energy while real estate, metals and defense lags.

NYSE- 340 net losers;

NAZ- 240 net losers;

NDX- 15 GREEN;

OEX- 40 GREEN;

VIX - FLAT;

TRIN- .62 with up and down volume about equal;

GOLD- down by about $8 after being down by at least $15 earlier;

GE acts awful as it trades like a bank except they are all higher today - GE minus 3% and heading for an $8 handle.

Currently long SRS DXD and looking to buy some QID.

RSI (2) levels continue to trade near 1.

Bottoming process continues per gurus.

WEEKEND UPDATE

Big headline in Barrons- the Manhattan luxury real estate market is rotting - wall street layoffs and tight credit squeeze demand- shocker.

Also, a bullish article on L as they see a double discount on CNA and DO - also note the shareholder friendliness of the Tisch group, the boys who run the company and who also own about 30% of the shares.

Lots of bank nationalization discussion and Barry has the list of for and opposed and Roubini explains his yes- great stuff;

Dr. Brett on weak markets;

Gretchen explains the move to RECLAIM;

TOM with a pretty pretty good idea - GM is history - go for something new;

Just win baby, sure;

Has GOLD peaked:

Eastern Europe- not so good;