5.09.2008

THE CLOSE


Major market indexes closed lower but don't tell anyone that the RUT and the MID both closed in the green.


Strongest sectors were gaming, shipping, small caps, biotech and utils while insurance, drugs, real estate and homie lagged.


NYSE- 215 net losers;

NAZ- 150 net losers;

NDX- 40 GREEN;

OEX-27 GREEN;

IBD- 40 GREEN;


VIX flat and trading at the SMA 10;


GOLD- 886;


CRUDE- 126;


Down volume about 2X the up and very light at barely 1.1 B shares traded;


TRIN- 1.53- volume flowing to the losers;


RSI (2) levels:


SPX 21

DJIA 17

NAZ 35

NDX 39

RUT 46

MID 66

XLE 65

OIH 82

XLF 20

DBA 96

DBC 98


Markets a bit over sold here and a move higher back to the 1400 level on the SPX early next week would not be surprising. Hopefully someone else besides this fish caught the nice move in DIG-

Markets continue to trade lower with financials flip flopping between green and red unable to sustain a move in either direction. The DJIA is -107, NAZ -8 and SPX -10.


Strongest sectors gaming, retail, small caps and biotech while steel, oil service, ags, and trannies lag.


NYSE- 440 net losers;

NAZ- 440 net losers;

NDX-45 GREEN;

OEX-25 GREEN;

IBD-25 GREEN;


VIX- flat at near 19.6;


Up volume .5X Down;


TRIN- 1.51;


Crude approaching the highs again at 125.5;


Gold- 887;


Markets meandering midday with the oils getting a little bid again as crude moves back higher. Gold also up $6 while the DXC is lower and the EURO back up to 1.546. Financials continue to defy logic as there is really not much of an explanation for their action today. Anyhow - dipped back in for some DIG.

OPENING CHECK


A bizarre opening to the markets as the DJIA trades down 100, NAZ -11 and SPX -10- the weird part, financials are trading green along with retail, homies and small caps while oils, and tech lag despite crude at $125 /new all time highs. Maybe the markets know that oil has peaked this AM - but I doubt the market is that clever.


Key stocks- 5/40 higher led up by NVDA RIMM MER AMGN BG- worst performers include BIDU MON V LVS CELG ICE XOM and WYNN.


NYSE- 800 net losers;

NAZ- 670 net losers;

NDX- 30 GREEN;

OEX-15 GREEN;

IBD-13 GREEN;


VIX- up a big 2% at/near 19.8;


Down volume almost 3X the up;


GOLD- 875;


CRUDE- 125;


EURO- 1.543;


Keeping a close eye on the financials and AIG/C as they will probably dictate the action today- big area of support on the SPX at/near 1380- keep the belt fastened it should be a pretty wild ride.

5.08.2008

THE CLOSE


A rather uneventful day in the markets as the SPX hit its head right at 2:00 at the 1400 level and the financials turned ugly also at that time.


Strongest sectors- energy, metals, defense, ags and internets while homies, retail, financials and real estate lagged.


NYSE- 480 net winners;

NAZ- 150 net winners;

NDX- 69 GREEN;

OEX- 65 GREEN;

IBD-75 GREEN;


VIX- down 3%;


Volume about equal between up and down- total volume - light yet again;


Crude- another new high at 124.5;


Gold - 885;


$$$$ unchanged;


EURO- 1.5395;


Markets going to have a problem unless the financials shake off the ugly trade of today- solid resistance above and a move higher will probably be met by lots of faders at the 1400/1410 levels. The buy area seems to still be at 1380.


Also, congrats to the folks who bought the OIH dip- shocker that it is moving on up with crude.

THE OPEN


Markets open higher but are bouncing around and I don't think this is going to hold as the financials act funky once again. The DJIA +39, NAZ +6.5 and SPX +2.7.


Strongest sectors include metals, steel, oils, emerging markets, defense and trannies while retail, banks, brokers and homies lag.


Key stocks- 17/40 higher led by MTW GOOG CME CAT AAPL WYNN XOM- with NVDA POT DECK UA MS ISRG GS all lower.


NYSE- 200 net winners;

NAZ- 70 net losers;

NDX- 60 GREEN;

OEX- 63 GREEN;

IBD- 60 GREEN;


VIX- flattish;

Up volume a bit less than down;


Gold- 877;

Crude- 123;


Markets look set to go a bit lower and then like I mentioned yesterday a bounce off that probe lower. Financials looking ugly again with all the big banks and brokers trading in the red.


The next FIB retracement area that looks pretty good is 1380 on the SPX- so I will consider that area very good support for now.

5.07.2008

THE CLOSE




Markets closed at/near the lows of the day and the 1400 level on the SPX is solidly in the rear view mirror. The DJIA closed down 208, NAZ -45 and SPX -26.

Weakest sectors included financials, insurance, homies, trannies, real estate and gaming while no sectors closed well.

One explanation for the weak performance that I read is the bullishness psychology is gaining steam and hence weak longs are in the markets. Perhaps.

NYSE- 1370 net losers;

NAZ- 1260 net losers;

NDX-13 WINNERS;

OEX- 14 WINNERS;

IBD- 15 WINNERS;

VIX- 19.47 and higher by 7% and trading at the SMA 10- VXO higher by 14% and trading about 3% above the SMA 10;

Up volume about 1/4 Down volume and total volume light at 1.2B shares;

TRIN- 1.85- ugly;

Note the SMA 200 on the SPX- I guess it was pretty pretty big resistance.

RSI (2) levels at near the 20 level on most major indexes- probably see another dip in the early trade tomorrow and then may be worth taking a shot on the long side with QQQQ/QLD- etc.

Also watch the oil price as equities are tending to trade in the opposite direction for now- and crude is way over bought. Note also the $$$$ up as crude/nat gas went higher- a bit odd-




MIDDAY SURGE


Markets heading lower as crude is moving on up - now at $123+ on the heals of the big inventory draw down.


Sectors in the green include steel and junk bonds while financials, banks, trannies,homies, brokers and gaming lags.


NYSE- 660 net losers;

NAZ- 700 net losers;

NDX- 20 WINNERS;

OEX-20 WINNERS;

IBD-40 WINNERS;


WINNERS- GENC MTL CLR ENS ACI SID POT CEPH DTV HOLX DISH LBTYA GOOG WFMI DIS EP NYX BDK ATI IBM HPQ;


LOSERS- AKAM WFC MER AXP LEH FDX HIG CTSH INFY CHRW FMCN WYNN LVLT CELG PCAR FISV MER AXP FDX GM;


VIX- higher by 4%;


TRIN- 1.24;


Down Volume about 2X Down;


Markets still over bought and a move down to 1400 on the SPX would not be surprising in light of the recent ramp off the bottom near the 1250 level. Oils looking good as the OIH has flipped to green and stocks such as DIG RIG SLB NOV XTO APA APC CAM CNQ NBR all look good for dippers. Note the OIH was over $215 while crude was considerably lower a few weeks ago.
I like the quote on Briefing.com "SP simply trading inverse to crude today." Yup.

MORNING LOOKS


Markets are trading mixed with the NAZ higher and the DJIA/SPX lower.


Strongest sectors include semis, retail, brokers, small cap and tech while oils, metals, drugs and utils are lower.


NYSE/NAZ flattish internals;

NDX- 60 GREEN;

OEX-40 GREEN;

IBD- 45 GREEN;


VIX- 18.63 and higher by 2.3% but still over sold;


Up and Down volume about equal;


TRIN- 1.16 as the volume flows to the losers;


Crude- back higher after the big build at $122;


Gold down at 870;


Markets a bit over bought here and a pull back should not surprise anyone- OIH/DIG may be a buy on this pull back- I will probably buy the dip.

5.06.2008

THE CLOSE


Markets closed higher with the DJIA +51, NAZ +19 and SPX +10.77.


Strongest sectors- oils, ags, steel, trannies and gaming while biotech, drugs, utils and telecom lagged.


NYSE- 770 net winners;

NAZ- 435 net winners;

NDX- 65 WINNERS;

OEX- 60 WINNERS;

IBD -70 WINNERS;


VIX- down 3.5% at 18.2 and trading 6% below the SMA 10;


Up volume more than 2X Down on 1.23 Billion shares- light again;


EWA up about .8% and breaks into green territory for 2008;


CSCO beats the number in the after market as it trades at $27.22- up 3.5% for the day;


SPX/DJIA still under the 200 SMA and that level probably will continue to provide resistance until/if it gaps above.

PM Meandering


Markets are higher led by the NAZ/NDX +15.5/+12 with the DJIA lagging +45 and the SPX +8.7.


Strongest sectors- oils, ags, steel, internets, metals, gaming and large cap growth- lagging are drugs, utils, telecom, biotech and defense.


NYSE- 425 net winners;

NAZ- 285 net winners;

NDX- 65 GREEN;

OEX-60 GREEN;

IBD-67 GREEN;


VIX- down almost 3% and back to oversold levels;


Up volume not quite 2X Down volume;


TRIN .78;


GOLD- 880;

CRUDE- 122+;


EURO- 1.554;


Markets seem to be running out of steam at these levels- just seems like no mans land as the SPX/DJIA sits under the 200 SMA while the QQQQ is a hair above. RSI (2) levels at/near 70 on the SPX.

MORNING LOOK


Markets are lower but seem to have hit a temporary bottom as commodities and oils/metals lead. The DJIA -68, NAZ -9 and SPX -4.5.


Strongest sectors- oils, metals, ags, steel and emerging markets while homies, brokers, telecom, banks and drugs lag.


Key stocks- 11/40 higher with NYX POT V DECK MSFT MON higher and MER CME RIMM MS KLAC C GOOG lower.


NYSE- 685 net losers;

NAZ- 500 net losers;

NDX-33 WINNERS;

OEX-23 WINNERS;

IBD- 55 WINNERS;


IBD 20- 16 GREEN and now includes HES NBL APA CNQ CHK EOG NXY RIG HAL CVX and BNI - just a bit of a theme.


VIX- only up 1% and still oversold;


Down volume about 1.5X Up;


TRIN- .97;


GOLD- 883;

CRUDE- 121.65;

EURO- 1.556;


Despite the crummy financials a late afternoon rally would not be surprising - in the mean time bought some DDM and V.



BEFORE THE OPEN


Futures are trading lower while crude is down a bit and Gold is a bit higher.


Gapping up- APOL YHOO MICC LBTYA NYX EP BMY AA BUD SDA ITU PQ HES NGS DRYS;


Gapping down- JST LKQX GTLS BBD GFA TNH SID GRC BUCY MER COF AXP S GS LEH RYAAY JOYG SHLD BRCM TEVA EBAY;


Some interesting links:


New SPX price targets from our favorite strategists;


The impact of inflation on the major index;


The McLame;


The Abby indicator;


A new judge is coming- ugh;


The Bullish;


The VIX;


5.05.2008

THE CLOSE


Markets closed lower but well off the worst levels with the DJIA closing down 89, NAZ -13 and SPX -6.5.


Strongest sectors- steel, oils, metals, ags and homies while internets, retail, gaming and financials lagged.


NYSE- 475 net losers;

NAZ- 375 net losers;

NDX- 30 GREEN;

OEX- 27 GREEN;

IBD- 70 GREEN;


VIX- higher by 4.4% to 18.97;


Very light volume 1.1B shares with Down about 1.5X the up;


Market internals on the NYSE/NAZ were much better than the indexes seemed to indicate and as I mentioned earlier, a turnaround Tuesday would not surprise me.


Crude is trading at/near $120 but the oils and oil service hardly made progress and the last time oil was $120 - these stocks were much higher. Just food for thought.


And how about that Cramer being in Ironman- just tell me one thing- just give me publicity - I could care less about the rest.

MIDDAY LOOK


Markets continue to trade lower with the DJIA -86, NAZ -10.5 and SPX -6.5.


Strongest sectors include metals, oils, steel, homies, ags and biotech while financials, internets, gaming, retail and utils lag.


NYSE- 500 net losers;

NAZ- 425 net losers;

NDX- 30 GREEN;

OEX- 27 GREEN;

IBD -65 GREEN;


VIX- higher by about 5% at 19.05;


GOLD- 875;


EURO- moving up at 1.55;


Crude - at/near 120;


Down volume a bit more than up;


Not to hopeful of a late day rally but tomorrow is another day and it may be turnaround Tuesday- market hardly oversold but a bit cheaper than this morning-

THE OPEN


Markets are trading lower this morning after some initial buying with weakness in internets, gaming and financials while strength is found in metals, oils, ags, steel and homies.


NYSE- 450 net losers;

NAZ- 300 net losers;

OEX -20 GREEN;

NDX-25 GREEN;

IBD- 75 GREEN;


WINNERS- SNDK BIDU STLD FWLT MSFT GOOG AAPL S HAL SLB BHI MO UNH COP CLR DNR KWK BRY ACI EOP APA;


LOSERS- CYBS SOHU GFA CHL FLS KSU BAP PSEM YHOO HOLX UAUA DISCA ADSK APOL LRCX GM TYC HD VZ ROK CSCO HIG RF;


GOLD -868;

CRUDE-119.55;



VIX- up 5% at 19.1;


Down volume almost 3X Up;


Markets are overbought and moving lower while oils and metals are a bit over sold and they are moving higher- An afternoon up move in equities would not be surprising if the sell off doesn't get too bad.


PRE MARKET THOUGHT


Pre market futures are lower this morning on the heels of the MSFT-YHOO break in and probably over bought conditions in the market.


Gapping up- S MSFT GOOG TWX DOV;


Gapping down- YHOO CFC IR;


An interesting take on the BAC/CFC deal out of FBR this morning and it may not bode well for CFC shareholders and maybe financials in general. FBR downgraded CFC to under perform and lowered their target to $2 from $7 noting continued deterioration in CFC's loan book- they think BAC will likely renegotiate the transaction to under $2 and force bondholders to absorb potential write downs which FBR sees at between $20 and $30 Billion. Just a bit under the radar for now but it could be a big story before long.


GOOG trading up 4% in the pre market on the heels of the MSFT/YHOO break up while YHOO is down 22% -


Brokers look to trade lower on the heels of a federal investigation into the "sub prime mortgage crisis" - Investigators supposedly looking into mortgage fraud, securities fraud, accounting fraud and insider trading.


And why is Warren on TV everywhere- seems like he is getting just a bit celebrity happy.