8.24.2008

THE TAKEOUT


Ok - early Sunday eventing and no word yet of any deal on LEH stock- for those of you that don't follow CNBC all trading day- here is what Bove said Friday morning in his conversation with Haines and Burnett about a $20 bid for LEH stock.


And if you bought LEH anytime on Friday and still hold the stock you are under water as it hit a high of about $16 at/near the open and slowly sank to close at/ near $14.3.


Also, if you do a GOOG search on Dick Bove and his bank calls, well not to good as he anticipated a bottom in them back in March.


But don't think that Bove is the only analyst having problems timing the markets this year- here is a little study at BESPOKE- on analysts and DJIA component predictions.


Barrons - interviews Byron Wien- sees the markets higher by year end with slow growth in the U.S. over the next several years, says maybe the financials have bottomed but any rally will be very slow, looks for oil to stay in the low $100 area but over the longer term higher simply because of China and India and expects other commodities to also trend higher as other countries increase their standards of living. Also mentions specific sectors that he expects will do well - drugs, selected biotech, oil and gas explorers, nat gas and Brazil.

Market as a whole- probably over bought and at/near the top of the recent trading range which I will define as 1260 on the bottom to 1315 at the top- RSI (2) level at near 85 on most major indexes and the VIX- a bit over sold and stretched about 8% from its SMA 10- other vol indexes also stretched just like the VIX.


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