8.02.2006

BREAK OUT

I am not a big believer in trading breakouts, especially in Index ETF's, but the SPX is making a two month high today. My guess is funds are putting end of month 401k/retirement/savings money to work which is goosing stocks, probably started yesterday afternoon after the EFT's arrived.

My plan, assuming a romp into the close, will be to sell some longs and add to my small QQQQ short as the 2 day RSI on SPX and the Volatility indexes are beginning to give some sell signals.

And for those waiting for the SPX/DIA outperformance, not today as IWM is +1.6% while SPY+.9% and DIA +.8%. If you are expecting a big cap outperformance, move it all to cash as it will only happen if the markets move lower.

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