9.11.2006

CLOSING THOUGHTS


As soon as I write about the tight trading range in the SPY the market decides to prove me correct about volatility returning to the usual. Only problem, we really didn't get a handle on the direction as the market was volatile with a $1.20 range but ended the day one dime above Friday's closing price. Buying breakouts and selling breakdowns continues to be a poor trade.

Oil stocks were crushed again as the OIH closed down about $6 near the $126 level and the GDX, an ETF of precious metals stocks, closed near the low down 7.5% on the day.

Sector winners included semis, retail, tech, trannies and consumers; losing groups besides oils and metals included Indian stocks, cyclicals, biotechs, brokers and biotechs.

Market internals were all over the board starting out at 2,000 more losers than winners, flipping to green and closing with nearly 750 more losers.

Volatility indexes also a mixed bag with both the VIX and the VXO closing near the 13 level which is a bit overbought on a short term basis. Other short term indicators have the SPY and QQQQ near the middle of their recent ranges and I am focusing for now on the oils and the metals as I expect to buy again at lower prices.

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