LATE NOON TAKE
The DJIA continues higher this hour as the other indexes struggle to stay green. Market internals are flattish with NYSE +325 and NAZ -400.
Sectors holding up include brokers (fading), banks, tech, homies and the hated oil service group (flipped green); laggards now include oils, KLAC, GS, drugs and retailers. Bottom line, kind of a mixed bag as the SPX futures are about flat and all the folks who bought the open are a bit unhappy.
Today is probably a perfect image of why many traders such as Mike, Kirk and others refuse to trade triple withing days. I believe they are correct and have not made a single trade today, yet anyway.
And isn't interesting the Bill Griffith finally decides to televise from the NYSE exchange because we are getting so close to the all time high on the DJIA. I just wonder why they don't rerun some of the tape from early May, the last time these "journalists" were giddy about the DJIA.
Benet Sedacca at minyanville.com had an interesting take this morning on why he is reducing his equity exposure:
"Can the market go higher" Of course it can. To me, the risk/reward ratio is simply deteriorating to the extent that the downside risk now feels much greater than the upside potential. Sentiment is now heading towards extreme optimism. The seasonal pattern that everyone was positioned for and got wiped out with is now the pain trade but in reverse. In other words, people have seemingly given up hope on the September low theory. We think this pushes seasonality out to the future once everyone closes out the losing positions. Inflationary forces are being replaced with deflationary forces. Valuations are silly again. Volatility at ridiculous levels."
I guess that sums up the bear case for today.
Sectors holding up include brokers (fading), banks, tech, homies and the hated oil service group (flipped green); laggards now include oils, KLAC, GS, drugs and retailers. Bottom line, kind of a mixed bag as the SPX futures are about flat and all the folks who bought the open are a bit unhappy.
Today is probably a perfect image of why many traders such as Mike, Kirk and others refuse to trade triple withing days. I believe they are correct and have not made a single trade today, yet anyway.
And isn't interesting the Bill Griffith finally decides to televise from the NYSE exchange because we are getting so close to the all time high on the DJIA. I just wonder why they don't rerun some of the tape from early May, the last time these "journalists" were giddy about the DJIA.
Benet Sedacca at minyanville.com had an interesting take this morning on why he is reducing his equity exposure:
"Can the market go higher" Of course it can. To me, the risk/reward ratio is simply deteriorating to the extent that the downside risk now feels much greater than the upside potential. Sentiment is now heading towards extreme optimism. The seasonal pattern that everyone was positioned for and got wiped out with is now the pain trade but in reverse. In other words, people have seemingly given up hope on the September low theory. We think this pushes seasonality out to the future once everyone closes out the losing positions. Inflationary forces are being replaced with deflationary forces. Valuations are silly again. Volatility at ridiculous levels."
I guess that sums up the bear case for today.
posted by DAVID at
12:45 PM
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