11.01.2006

NOT AGAIN?


Jimmy Cramer out with an article this AM about the shortage of stocks- I think I have read that before. Here goes:

"Isn't the question, why aren't we down more?

I think I have an answer: There is a relentless amount of money coming in from the public and a relentless amount of supply coming out of the market because of buybacks and takeovers.
We used to get big money in at the end of October as the public breathed a sigh of relief that two bad months were behind them. That stopped years ago. It seems to be back.


In the meantime, we get deals that are so huge that you have to shudder. You lose HCA's (HCA) stock. You lose Clear Channel's (CCU) stock. You lose Kinder Morgan's (KMI) stock. You lose Freescale's (FSL) stock. With many more to come.

We are in a pure supply/demand-driven market; the market is craving more supply and there's not enough going around.

Very telling."

Jimmy wrote that this morning. Now check what he wrote about the gold stock shortage back on May 9:

"When I got into this business there were, literally, dozens of investible gold mines. The South Africans traded like water. The Canadians were plentiful. The Americans were so plentiful that you never knew which to reach for.

Now you can count the number of truly investible gold companies on one hand. And that's the problem.

Who knows how high Goldcorp (GG:NYSE) , Barrick (ABX:NYSE) and Newmont (NEM:NYSE) could go. There is not only a gold shortage, but more acutely, there is a shortage of gold stocks!
Let's take Goldcorp. Everyone acknowledges this is the best of breed. It isn't hedged out like Barrick and it isn't challenged to find gold like Newmont. Given that's the case, it can go up endlessly as gold goes higher. It is the Occidental (OXY:NYSE) of the group, the one most levered to the underlying commodity. I know I have championed the stock for 20 points.
I keep waiting for IPOs in the group, but there aren't any. I keep waiting for the secondaries, but we don't get them either. Supply of these stocks is as tight as the supply of the precious metal itself, and demand is as strong for the shares as for the bullion in Iran, China and India, the three most voracious gold bugs on earth.


I usually like to say that the bull market will last until all of the equity deals get prices -- that's what happened with pretty much every other bull market in the last 20 years, destroyed by supply. Not going to happen in gold.

We just don't have enough of either!"

Check the chart on GG, yes he did it; I just hope he is not top ticking the equity markets. That would just be unfair. I am long too many equities.

1 Comments:

Blogger muckdog said...

My gut feeling today is that "there he goes again." Market not acting well.

3:50 PM  

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