12.21.2006

TECHNICALS- IWM

The Russell 2k has been a lackluster performer of late after being the best performing major market index for most of the year. As the SPX/DJIA has moved higher recently, the IWM hit its highs in the beginning of December and has been trending lower since. It is currently trading near its 50 day SMA and I suspect a break of that line will be disappointing for the bulls. The NDX has acted in a similar pattern and I suspect that these two indexes are giving us a heads up for whats to come in the SPX/DJIA markets.

My guess is "they" will keep the indexes elevated through the end of the year and then a rollover as PM's raise cash and try to figure out the next best thing. Most pundits say that a 3% or 5% correction is healthy but it rarely works out that way as most who desire a correction to buy often find it difficult when the markets are moving rapidly lower.

My strategy now is to let some longs go into the next week and watch what develops into the new year.

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