10.19.2007

SINKING SHIP


Markets continue to trade lower and are at the worst levels of the day with the DJIA down 300, NAZ down 57 and SPX -31. So volatility and fear have reappeared.


The math is saying its a better time to buy than sell as have all sell offs since the beginning of the bull market in October of 2002 and I suspect this time will be no different.


Start with the 50 day SMA's which are 13,560 on the DJIA - we are approaching that number, 1500 on the SPX has been a key area in the past and I suspect it will be an area of support yet again. The 50 day SMA on SPX 1497 and we trade about 10 above as I type.


VIX/VXO up close to 20% and about 20% above their respective 10 day SMA's. My guess is one can do worse than putting some work here although I expect a down open on Monday and then the buyers dip in and buy that lower open.


Two day RSI numbers on major indexes (amusement):


DJIA 1

SPX 3

MID 6

RUT 2

NDX 20

COMPQ 15


Twice as many as new lows as new highs on that list today, but it may pay to take a look at whats on the list:


Highs:


AKS APA AUO BK CHK CNQ KO FST MDG PDA STT SU TUP UPL WWY;


Lows:


C CBG CAB CMA GCI HSY LIZ MER JCP SOV TM WM;


I dipped and and bought some emerging market mutual funds FEMKX QFFOX. Any shot at a rate cut on October 31? And check out how Jimmy made out today with his SLB play.

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