12.11.2007

THE UGLY CLOSE


Ben may want to revisit today's move as the markets closed at/near the worst levels of the day as Big Ben did not come through with a 50 bps cut in the Funds or Discount rate. The DJIA closed down 295, the SPX 38 and the NAZ 67.


Pretty easy to find the worst sectors, homies, real estate, banks, brokers, airlines and retail while drugs, tech, semis, gaming and internets lost the least.
BEN BSC ETFC GS LEH LM MER MS CFC MTB WB and WFC all down more than 5%. Yesterday, they were the strongest area in front of Fed day so just goes to show.


Key stocks- 5 in the green including CELG MCD VMW MA NVDA- biggest losers- MS GRMN GS MER MTW BIDU C BAC;


Market internals - awful with about 4,000 net losers on the NYSE/NAZ;


OEX- 7 WINNERS- T MCD CSCO TXN CL HET EMC;

NDX-9 WINNERS- JNPR CELG BIIB EBAY MNST CSCON LINTA NVDA EBAY MXIM ERTS;

IBD 100- 8 WINNERS- ITEX CPLA SNCR VMW MA FCSX WFR MORN ABAX;


Technically, I was looking to buy lower near 1,490 on SPX and 2,105 on NDX. Well held most of my fire as I purchased some QQQQ near the $51.5 level but not much else and my guess is we are still ok technically and a dip tomorrow probably gets bought by those who wanted to get longer in front of the santa rally.


Note we are again below both the 50 and 200 SMA on the SPX as they are 1,500 and 1,485 respectively and the 50 day on the NDX lies at 2,121 while the 200 day is way below at 1,961.


Despite a slowing economy, stocks remain inexpensive in my opinion and I will continue to try to buy lower. Note the RSI (2) on the various indexes:


SPX 20

DJIA 23

NDX 15

RUT 20

QQQQ 18

MID 21


VIX closed up 14% at 23.55 and is now 4% above the 10 day SMA. No buy signal there but as I said, looking to buy if they dip in the morning.


The volume on the NYSE was about 1.5B shares and that is hardly huge volume so maybe a small consolation for the bulls.

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