CHECK THE HOMEWORK

Markets have flipped to red as lousy economic numbers continue to flow. Today's problems, the Philly fed, MER, Bernanke testimony etc,. Anyhow, did anyone watch Cramer this morning on?

What he say? First, - he mentioned that bond insurers are toast/worthless and that financials such as C and MER have fictional financial statements and the SEC/Justice department should investigate. He also mentioned how the folks at ENRON had nothing on the guys who ran some of the brokers and banks (C MER BSC etc).

What bothers me is that he says if we would have listened to him he would have gotten us out of equities at the 14,000 level on the DJIA (circa October 9, 2007).

Huh- not sure how someone can say that when all their past thought picks, pans, predictions, forecasts etc. are listed chronologically on their website. Here are a few where he picked bottoms and suggested buying tech, retail and shippers well after the highs were made or even at/near the highs, check it out:

October 22, 2007-

Such as- Why We're Near Bottom-

"We are bottoming. We are bottoming because we are oversold and because we can't go down every day on the same thing: bad mortgages. As horrible as that problem is, and it is horrible, it can be cured as soon as a year from now if the Fed cuts aggressively."

Or-

October 22, 2007-

Tech Will Lead Us Higher-

'Tech was never bad. It has a chance to be a leader, and it is taking it.
I can't tell you that tech can lead us out of the banking morass. I can tell you that when you layer on expiration pressures -- they were severe -- and you consider all of the good news from Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) , Intel (INTC) , Google (GOOG) , Seagate (STX) , you know that you have enough to make a go at much higher levels.

We keep being drawn to mortgages. I need you to think about something: Other than IBM (IBM) , have you heard a peep out of tech about mortgages?

I haven't.
Good place to go.
Even after this rally this morning."

Or-

October 30, 2007-

Get Ready for a Retail Revival

"Not a lot of love for my retail call. I am getting lots of pushback that I am early or that I am wrong.

I reiterate that retail is one of the roughest places to be. I don't know when it bottoms. I do know that you have to pounce on these stocks now, after the second rate cut, as there have been huge gains in two out of three rate-reduction cycles, with the loser being just a push.
I have to tell you that I also can recall way too many times when I have "missed" the run in this group. That I sat back and said, "Nah, you can't touch them."

I picked Nordstom (JWN) last night because I feel most comfortable with the earnings, which have been guided down huge. Same with Polo Ralph Lauren (RL) . Target (TGT) ? Catalyst and inexpensive.

We know that rate cuts matter. They matter first not to homebuilders -- even though they tend to gain -- but to retail when people feel better about themselves. It is also a nice hedge to oil constantly going up. If you agree with Goldman Sachs today on the call of top oil, then this is the right group to pounce on."

Or-

October 30, 2007-

No Reason to Abandon Dry Bulk Ships

"Freakout on dry bulk ships! That's what happened today. The hot money saw the break in the rates and skedaddled.

Should you?

Do you believe that rates are done going up? Do you know about secret ships that are being built or contracts being broken? Or revised down? Do you know what's falling apart?
Nothing.

Nothing at all.
Maybe that shouldn't matter. Maybe all that mattered were the stocks, and they are now "bad."
I say that if you invest like that, or if you invest without "room" to buy more, sell them right now. You are out of your league and you will sell lower.

I urge you to look at the longer time frame and see what drove rates higher to begin with -- world trade and a ship shortage.

That's what matters. I like Diana Shipping (DSX) and I like Paragon (PRGN) and OceanFreight (OCNF) , too.

We saw panic today in these stocks. There usually is an initial momentum to the second day that takes them down more. That's when, historically, it has been right to buy."

For amusement purposes, check the prices of some of those stocks then and now. Brutal.

Bottom line, I am not trying to bash Cramer for making bad picks and predictions, surely I have made plenty of my own. But don't come on TV and say if you only listened to me I would have gotten you out at/near the top when there is ample evidence that it is not true. In fact many times he would have gotten you in at the highs.

Say it often and loud enough and it must be true just ask that other guy.