3.08.2008

WEEKEND LOOK


Some interesting reading this weekend and starting with Barrons- a good article on avoiding mistakes which can hurt your eventual nest egg- they are- 1) high expenses 2) asset allocation and 3) timing the markets.


David Williams of the highly rated UMBIX fund - hunting for cheap stocks and admits that it is a promising time to look- what he likes now- FCX LEH JCP IVZ PBR- year to date- his fund is down 8.83% which is in the top 12% in its category -and over the last year- top 5%, 3 years- top 4% and in the last 5 years his fund ranks in the top 2% in its category. The fund has a beta of 1.18, Alpha 4.25 and a Sharpe ratio of .48- 5 *'s with HIGH risk and HIGH returns- all according to Morningstar.


Kopin Tan with a fine column and some nice stats for 2008- investor skittishness on Fridays according to Kopin- as investors get nervous before weekends- the facts from Darren Clipston of Tallis Capital Management-


"a trader who shorts the market late Thursday, goes long at the end of Friday, and then takes profit after the Monday bounce would have returned 9.9% so far in 2008."


And Kopin also talks to Justin Walter of BESPOKE-


"As ugly as these numbers were, the market still isn't as oversold as it was during January's plunge. The S&P 500 today is barely below its recent trading range. Its price-to-earnings ratio actually climbed to a new high as the index made fresh lows, chiefly as earnings fell faster than price.


On the other hand, financial stocks are extremely oversold, with just 4% of these holding above their 50-day moving average. "Since the market is primarily focused on the troubles with banks at the moment, a bounce in this sector will help the broad market"


Not sure where Justin gets his numbers from but the S&P site has 2007 earnings (still estimated) at $84.05 (15.4 PE) and an estimate of $98.63 for 2008 earnings- (13.1 PE).


Larry Nussbaum at his excellent site "MILLIONAIRE NOW" with some interesting information on SILVER and the ETF.


Dr. Brett with some good links this AM - but I like this one the best.


Finally- IBD 100- stocks in the group for the next week include:


1- POT

2- BUCY

5- RIMM

6- ISRG

11- AUY

17- RIO

24-MA

50-DE

67-DLB

69-ITU

83-CNQ


And FWIW- from the recent highs- (generally October 2007) to yesterday's close-


SPX -18%

DJIA -16.%

NAZ -23%

NDX -24%

RUT -23%


IBD still calls the markets in a "correction" looks like everything but the SPX and DJIA is in a bear market- and those two aren't far away from the 20% number.
And speaking of bear markets and market corrections, the 61.8 FIB retracements coming into play on the major indexes- where?
SPX 1,270 - (H 1576 L 769)
DJIA 11,500 - (H 14,198 L 7,200)
NAZ 2,190 - (H 2,862 L 1,108)
NDX 1,690 - (H 2,240 L 795)

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