THE WINNER

One brief post on the election and the polls- It is actually prettty simple in my opinion to determine the popular vote in 2008-

Rasmussen does a pretty pretty good job at determining party weighting and his numbers now show 40% dems and 33% GOP-

Assume approximately 90% will vote the party line and independents go for Obama by about 13/11 and Barr and Nader get 3% - that leaves Obama at/near 52% and McCain at 45%- and like all the rest of the pollsters I will use a 3 point margin of error - bottom line an easy victory in the popular vote for Obama and probably upwards of 375 EV's as most of the battleground states mirror the National polls give or take a bit.

And I will definitely flip back next Wednesday to see how this simple math worked.