4.20.2006

BOTTOM IN?

Jim Cramer came out yesterday afternoon with some INTC comments. Knowing what we know about Jim, and his uncanny ability to be the quintessential contra indicator, is the bottom now in on INTC? I quote:

"But Intel? I don't see the hope. I don't know what gets it out of the doldrums. A PC pickup? I don't think that's in the cards. More demand? I have to tell you, this is the only company I follow that saw weaker demand in Europe in Asia.

That's quite a feat, because I follow a lot of companies. Plus, being levered to PCs just doesn't cut it anymore. Not when gadget tech or big-screen tech or video-on-demand tech's got great momentum. Let me put it another way. If you really think that Intel is good, that it won't have to initiate a price war, that business is solid, then I would go buy AMD (AMD:NYSE - commentary - research - Cramer's Take)! It's got the better momentum, the better customer base and the cheaper chips! Otherwise, let Intel rally to $20, and then sell it again. "

So its late April and Jimmy is bearish on INTC under 20. Of course in January he had this to say about INTC and I quote again:

"Will this be the year that Intel gets its mojo back? I believe it will be. Intel will have the plants and the demand, but it also has pesky AMD (AMD:NYSE - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) eating its lunch because the paranoids at the top are all retired or dead, I guess. Intel is a quandary, a not-expensive growth stock that needs to buy Qualcomm (QCOM:Nasdaq - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) or Broadcom (BRCM:Nasdaq - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) but failed to do so when they were cheap. I'd pay 19 times the $1.65 I believe Intel can earn, and I can see the stock trading up to $31 -- I know, not exciting, but that's what happens when you make your bed with WiFi and let your darned opponent catch up to you in price and public relations. I miss former AMD CEO Jerry Sanders; he always could be counted on to mess up AMD when it most counted. Bring him back, and Intel goes to $40. "

I doubt that there is much more bad news in INTC that we don't know about. The company sells at 16 times earnings, has an ROE of 23%, sells at 3 times book, 3 times sales and yields over 2%. My guess is that it is worth a shot here as all the bad news is out. If they restructure and cut costs the stock will move up and if a new CEO comes on board (HPQ) more perceived good news and a higher price. The final piece of the puzzle will be a Cramer upgrade when the stock gets to 25(lol).

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