4.18.2006

BREAKOUT OR RANGE BOUND

So is todays action the beginning of a move higher or just the top of the same old range? Those that have been playing the moves higher as breakouts have not been faring very well. I have been buying pullbacks as I have mentioned repeatedly and it has worked very very well. I prefer to buy the market lower and sell it into spikes like today. Don't know if it will keep working but for now if it isn't broke I will not try to fix it.

I do not have a chart of the QQQQ up but I do know that it hit its high for the year on January 11, so that breakout trade did not work that well either (lol).

All of my indicators are in the "get out of the markets" mode with the 2 day RSI on SPY at 93 and the VIX and VXO stretched 5% below their 10 day SMA's.

According to the book How Markets Really Work by Larry Connors;

"When the VIX closes more than 5% below its 10 day SMA, the market has greatly underperformed the averages. In fact, in some cases the market has lost money over the short term. This finding is extremely significant because it identifies the times when the least amount of money has been made over the past 14 years (1990-2003). For example, over the 14 year period, the VIX has closed 5% under its 10 day SMA approximately 25% of the time. The SPX rose over 300% over this 14 year period but none of the cumulative net weekly gains have occurred while the VIX closed 5% under its 10 day SMA." BUYER BEWARE!!!

3 Comments:

Blogger John Wheatcroft said...

I discovered this "truth" on my own some years ago and am glad others have also found it to be so. It is always nice to be among friends with similar ideas.

Regarding "how the markets work" all Cramer fans should read the CXOAG site today. They have an expose about experts and the value of their predictions and the suckers who "buy in."

10:05 AM  
Blogger DAVID said...

I know the value of Cramer's ideas

10:25 AM  
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