EVER ANY DOUBT?

In the category of "I KNEW IT WOULD HAPPEN" here is Jimmy's latest take on the commodity/metals trade titled "EXIT COMMODITIES ON TRADEABLE RALLY":


If you want to see an exercise in what is going on, hit up some six-month charts on all the commodity names. They all manifest this gently rising slope and then, sometime in the March-April timeframe, they take off on parabolic moves.

Now, those parabolic moves are all obliterated. On every one of these. So now the question becomes: Can they hold the levels they were at before they went parabolic?

History does not look good for these. Very few times have I seen a parabolic move be met with a stabilization back to where the parabola began. Too many people got in higher for me to think that the bottom is now at hand.

What could be at hand, though is a tradeable rally from that parabola's launch.
That could be your chance to get out. It will look very tempting: "The selling's over, the selling's over!"

It will be false, if history dictates.

I think that you now need to sit tight if you are in these stocks and get ready to let some of them go when I suspect they lift Tuesday. I think that Europe and Asia rally and you get a nice bounce, but I think you need to skedaddle from most commodity names on this bounce.
They may just be finished for now. Too much bad money, too much lost money, to rally convincingly back to those levels. "

But then of course back at the top in April he wrote the article called "THE TEN STRONGEST BULL MARKETS" where he said:

"Looking for the bull markets? Let's just recount the strongest so you know where the hunting is best.

1. Gold, plain and simple. Cheapest: still Goldcorp (GG:NYSE) . Most speculative with biggest payoff: Crystallex (KRY:Amex) -- yeah, it's in bed with Chavez, but he needs to put people to work and gold mines do it better than anyone else. Worst: Newmont (NEM:NYSE) . It's running out of gold and seeing higher finding costs, but you know what? It's the worst house in a great neighborhood.

2. Minerals. Go for the supermarkets: BHP Billiton (BHP:NYSE) and Rio Tinto (RTP:NYSE) . Those are still good. I have sold some BHP from Action Alerts PLUS, felt like a pig. Don't forget copper, where I just sold some Southern Copper (PCU:NYSE) 'cause I couldn't take the vertigo. I would get back in it down $10. Aluminum: Alcan (AL:NYSE) . Nickel: Inco (N:NYSE) . Don't outthink this stuff; go for the branded products. You can go down to Northgate (NXG:NYSE) , but it is a stretch to me."

Yes, I know, you can't make this stuff up. Is there any chance he will want to get you back in higher?