5.11.2006

MORE SIGNALS


Revshark tries to tell us to trade without emotions on the realmoney.com site, and he may be talking about some other commentator(lol):


"The most important thing you can do in a market like we have today is to keep your emotions in check. When you see red across the board, it is very easy to become depressed and discouraged. There usually is either the inclination to dump everything, or a feeling of being frozen and incapable of making any moves at all. Both those behaviors are the offshoot of confusion and rob you of the opportunities that arise when emotions are running high.

It is extremely important that you don't start buying into the feelings and emotions of the folks who are always the most bearish at the lows and most bullish at the tops. When you start seeing repeated arguments about how commodities won't stop going up and technology won't stop going down at any time in the near future, you can bet that we are getting close to an extreme point in the action. "

I wonder who he is talking about(lol)?

The action is getting uglier on the street as the DJIA is now down 130, SP500 down 16 and the NAZ down 41. Generally, the most the DJIA will go down in any one day is 150, and the usual limits on the NAZ and SP500 are 40 and 15 respectively, so we are already there.

The VXO is now up 9% on the day and now sits over 8% above its 10 day SMA. More buy signals, although I have a sneaky suspicion we may have to go a bit lower before the carnage ends and that is why I continue to scale into SPY and QQQQ. The 2 day RSI on the SPY now sits at 8 and 3 on the QQQQ. The stars are aligning and a little more liftage on the VIX and we will be set.

One other signal that Larry Conners of TradingMarkets.com mentions is to buy SPY when the VIX/VXO trades at a 5 day RSI of 70 or above. Well there you go, its now over 80, another signal to chew on.

2 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I agree the bleeding may not be done.

I think applying some anaylysis to larger time frames may
be prudent here before scaling in.

It could be that lower frequencies are at work here; season, mid-year election....

Just a thought.

Jim

3:53 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Between the close of the stock market and 4:15 close of the cme. The S&P traveled north 4pts to sit on its 20 day sma, that is at least one larger time scale buy signal confirming any earlier buys in SPY.

4:31 PM  

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