7.07.2006

SHOCKING

The numbers come and shockingly the ADP numbers were way off as the economy grew non farm payrolls by 121K vs the consensus of 160K. The ADP numbers were well into the 200's so it just goes to show that trying to predict these numbers is not a great idea. After all, 50,000 jobs in an economy that employs over 100,000,000?.

Of course the futures ramped higher on the "bad news" and the Friday gap is in play as is my earlier preponderance of evidence best guess .

John Succo of Minyanville.com fame is out with his take on the numbers:

"We cannot speak for market participants buying futures after this employment number. We don't understand what they like as they bid up stock futures. This to us was a bad number, indicating stagflation. The wage component indicates pressures at the same time that employment continues to be below expectations. We sold as many stock futures as we could."

On another note, according to "the book," the odds of a Friday gap fill are about 78%. And how about the new odds of an August Fed rate hike down to 58% from a pre employment number reading at 68%.

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