GAP UP

Markets are set to open higher on the cease fire news out of the Middle East. The good news, Monday gaps fill only 65% of the time according to John Carter's book, the bad news, cease fire's in the Middle East have a worst record with about a zero% chance of a long term hold.

Oil prices down this morning also on the news out of Lebanon and on the news of no new hurricanes. My take is that this is somewhat akin to buying oil stocks in the winter on the forecast of warmer weather and selling on the news of colder weather. The cold weather coming includes; hurricane season not quite over, Iran nuclear talks back on the front burner at the end of August and the almost forgotten North Korea missile tests.