THE GIFT

"Merck's (MRK:NYSE) a huge problem here, now that the verdict has come in against it. I believe that we could be at the very beginning of hundreds of headlines like this, and the stock is only down a buck and change, which is the kind of decline you get on a garden-variety downgrade.
Some of that is because it is a quiet August Friday. Some of it is because of all of the puts being sold right now that just came back to life, so people get something back. I would not sell those puts. This verdict eliminates any chance of Merck getting a bid -- nobody wants this risk.
Merck could be in much more trouble than the Street believes because the Street doesn't understand litigation.
Merck yields 5%. Is the yield safe? Who knows? Merck doesn't know. It would be realistic to think that some prosecutor could go after these guys for murder. I am listening to the coverage of this right now and I am thinking, "Wait a second, when we first had fen-phen, I heard these same things, these exact same things, nice, calming chatter when you got some of the worst news possible. So what that it was Texas, which is plaintiff-friendly? The whole darned country is plaintiff-friendly when it comes to the drug companies."
I believe you should be ready for some horrible headlines on this, and that the stock simply can't be owned.
Period. End of story, except that $29 is a gift to the sellers, a gift that wouldn't happen if it weren't for expiration and August. "
I am actually quite surprised that Jimmy didn't own up and tells us how he was exactly wrong about MRK and what a great buy it was at $29.
1 Comments:
another gem, lol
Post a Comment
Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]
<< Home